Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Abd-Allah, Foad, Adebayo, Oladimeji, Agrawal, Anurag, Alam, Tahiya, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Abd-Allah, Foad , Adebayo, Oladimeji , Agrawal, Anurag , Alam, Tahiya , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1160-1203
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- Description: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Abd-Allah, Foad , Adebayo, Oladimeji , Agrawal, Anurag , Alam, Tahiya , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1160-1203
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
The henle fiber layer in albinism: Comparison to normal and relationship to outer nuclear layer thickness and foveal cone density
- Lee, Daniel, Woertz, Erica, Visotcky, Alexis, Wilk, Melissa, Heitkotter, Heather, Linderman, Rachel, Tarima, Sergey, Summers, C. Gail, Brooks, Brian, Brilliant, Murray, Antony, Bhavna, Lujan, Brandon, Carroll, Joseph
- Authors: Lee, Daniel , Woertz, Erica , Visotcky, Alexis , Wilk, Melissa , Heitkotter, Heather , Linderman, Rachel , Tarima, Sergey , Summers, C. Gail , Brooks, Brian , Brilliant, Murray , Antony, Bhavna , Lujan, Brandon , Carroll, Joseph
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Investigative Ophthalmology & visual science Vol. 59, no. 13 (2018), p. 5336-5348
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- Description: Directional optical coherence tomography (D-OCT) allows the visualization of the Henle fiber layer (HFL) in vivo. Here, we used D-OCT to characterize the HFL and outer nuclear layer (ONL) in albinism and examine the relationship between true foveal ONL and peak cone density. Horizontal D-OCT B-scans were acquired, registered, and averaged for 12 subjects with oculocutaneous albinism and 26 control subjects. Averaged images were manually segmented to extract HFL and ONL thickness. Adaptive optics scanning light ophthalmoscopy was used to acquire images of the foveal cone mosaic in 10 subjects with albinism, from which peak cone density was assessed. Across the foveal region, the HFL topography was different between subjects with albinism and normal controls. In particular, foveal HFL thickness was thicker in albinism than in normal controls (P < 0.0001), whereas foveal ONL thickness was thinner in albinism than in normal controls (P < 0.0001). The total HFL and ONL thickness was not significantly different between albinism and controls (P = 0.3169). Foveal ONL thickness was positively correlated with peak cone density in subjects with albinism (r = 0.8061, P = 0.0072). Foveal HFL and ONL topography are significantly altered in albinism relative to normal controls. Our data suggest that increased foveal cone packing drives the formation of Henle fibers, more so than the lateral displacement of inner retinal neurons (which is reduced in albinism). The ability to quantify foveal ONL and HFL may help further stratify grading schemes used to assess foveal hypoplasia.
- Authors: Lee, Daniel , Woertz, Erica , Visotcky, Alexis , Wilk, Melissa , Heitkotter, Heather , Linderman, Rachel , Tarima, Sergey , Summers, C. Gail , Brooks, Brian , Brilliant, Murray , Antony, Bhavna , Lujan, Brandon , Carroll, Joseph
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Investigative Ophthalmology & visual science Vol. 59, no. 13 (2018), p. 5336-5348
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Directional optical coherence tomography (D-OCT) allows the visualization of the Henle fiber layer (HFL) in vivo. Here, we used D-OCT to characterize the HFL and outer nuclear layer (ONL) in albinism and examine the relationship between true foveal ONL and peak cone density. Horizontal D-OCT B-scans were acquired, registered, and averaged for 12 subjects with oculocutaneous albinism and 26 control subjects. Averaged images were manually segmented to extract HFL and ONL thickness. Adaptive optics scanning light ophthalmoscopy was used to acquire images of the foveal cone mosaic in 10 subjects with albinism, from which peak cone density was assessed. Across the foveal region, the HFL topography was different between subjects with albinism and normal controls. In particular, foveal HFL thickness was thicker in albinism than in normal controls (P < 0.0001), whereas foveal ONL thickness was thinner in albinism than in normal controls (P < 0.0001). The total HFL and ONL thickness was not significantly different between albinism and controls (P = 0.3169). Foveal ONL thickness was positively correlated with peak cone density in subjects with albinism (r = 0.8061, P = 0.0072). Foveal HFL and ONL topography are significantly altered in albinism relative to normal controls. Our data suggest that increased foveal cone packing drives the formation of Henle fibers, more so than the lateral displacement of inner retinal neurons (which is reduced in albinism). The ability to quantify foveal ONL and HFL may help further stratify grading schemes used to assess foveal hypoplasia.
- French, Simon, Charity, Melanie, Forsdike, Kirsty, Gunn, Jane, Polus, Barbara, Walker, Bruce, Chondros, Patty, Britt, Helena
- Authors: French, Simon , Charity, Melanie , Forsdike, Kirsty , Gunn, Jane , Polus, Barbara , Walker, Bruce , Chondros, Patty , Britt, Helena
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Medical Journal of Australia Vol. 199, no. 10 (2013), p. 687-691
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Objectives: COAST (Chiropractic Observation and Analysis Study) aimed to describe the clinical practices of chiropractors in Victoria, Australia. Design: Cross-sectional study using the BEACH (Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health) methods for general practice. Setting and participants: 180 chiropractors in active clinical practice in Victoria were randomly selected from the list of 1298 chiropractors registered on Chiropractors Registration Board of Victoria. Twenty-four chiropractors were ineligible, 72 agreed to participate, and 52 completed the study. Main outcome measures: Each participating chiropractor documented encounters with up to 100 consecutive patients. For each chiropractor-patient encounter, information collected included patient health profile, patient reasons for encounter, problems and diagnoses, and chiropractic care. Results: Data were collected on 4464 chiropractor-patient encounters from 52 chiropractors between 11 December 2010 and 28 September 2012. In most (71%) encounters, patients were aged 25-64 years; 1% of encounters were with infants (age < 1 year; 95% CI, 0.3%-3.2%). Musculoskeletal reasons for encounter were described by patients at a rate of 60 per 100 encounters (95% CI, 54-67 encounters) and maintenance and wellness or check-up reasons were described at a rate of 39 per 100 encounters (95% CI, 33-47 encounters). Back problems were managed at a rate of 62 per 100 encounters (95% CI, 55-71 encounters). The most frequent care provided by the chiropractors was spinal manipulative therapy and massage. Conclusions: A range of conditions are managed by chiropractors in Victoria, Australia, but most commonly these conditions are musculoskeletal-related. These results can be used by stakeholders of the chiropractic profession in workforce development, education and health care policy.
A prospective study of coping and adjustment in adolescents with craniofacial conditions
- Roberts, Rachel, Shute, Rosalyn
- Authors: Roberts, Rachel , Shute, Rosalyn
- Date: 2012
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Children's Health Care Vol. 41, no. 2 (2012), p. 111-128
- Full Text: false
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- Description: This study aimed to examine the role of coping strategy use in concurrent and later adjustment in adolescents with craniofacial anomalies (CFAs). It was expected that better adjustment at both baseline and 12 months would be related to greater baseline perceived coping efficacy, greater use of active coping and social support seeking, and less use of avoidance strategies. Eighty adolescents with CFAs and their parents completed measures of adjustment, coping strategy use, and efficacy in response to CFA-related stressful situations. Fifty-five families completed these measures again 12 months later. Overall, the predicted pattern of correlations between coping and adjustment was found. However, coping and efficacy at baseline did not explain a significant proportion of the variance in adjustment measures 1 year later, after controlling for baseline adjustment. Such prospective findings are beginning to bring into question the assumed importance of coping in pediatric adjustment. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
- Gomez, Rapson, Vance, Alasdair, Gomez, Andre
- Authors: Gomez, Rapson , Vance, Alasdair , Gomez, Andre
- Date: 2012
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Psychological Assessment Vol. 24, no. 1 (2012), p. 1-10
- Full Text: false
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- Description: In the study, the authors examined the measurement (configural, factor loadings, thresholds, and error variances) and structural (factor variances, covariances, and mean scores) invariance of the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI; Kovacs, 1992) across ratings provided by clinic-referred children and adolescents with (N = 383) and without (N = 412) depressive disorders. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis of the Craighead, Smucker, Craighead, and Ilardi (1998) CDI model supported full measurement invariance and invariance for structural variances and covariances. Invariance for thresholds was also supported by multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) procedures that controlled for the effects of age; sex; and the presence or absence of anxiety disorders, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and oppositional defiant/conduct disorders. The MIMIC analyses showed that for latent mean scores, the group with depressive disorders had higher scores, with at least medium effect sizes, for Self-Deprecation and Biological Dysregulation. The theoretical, psychometric, and clinical implications of the findings are discussed. © 2011 American Psychological Association.
Emotional functioning in children and adolescents with elevated depressive symptoms
- Hughes, Elizabeth, Gullone, Eleonora, Watson, Shaun
- Authors: Hughes, Elizabeth , Gullone, Eleonora , Watson, Shaun
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment Vol. 33, no. 3 (2011), p. 335-345
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- Description: Difficulties with emotion and its regulation are of central importance to the etiology and course of depression. The current study investigated these constructs in relation to childhood and adolescence by comparing the emotional functioning of 170 9- to 15-year-olds reporting high levels of depressive symptoms (HD) to a matched sample of 170 children and adolescents reporting low levels of depressive symptoms (LD). Compared to LD, HD participants reported significantly greater shame proneness, poorer functioning on emotion regulation competencies (emotional control, self-awareness and situational responsiveness), less healthy emotion regulation strategy use (less reappraisal and greater suppression), and lower levels of guilt proneness. Empathic concern did not differ between the two groups. The findings enhance current knowledge by providing a more comprehensive profile of the emotional difficulties experienced by children and adolescents with elevated depressive symptoms. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
- Authors: Hughes, Elizabeth , Gullone, Eleonora , Watson, Shaun
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment Vol. 33, no. 3 (2011), p. 335-345
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Difficulties with emotion and its regulation are of central importance to the etiology and course of depression. The current study investigated these constructs in relation to childhood and adolescence by comparing the emotional functioning of 170 9- to 15-year-olds reporting high levels of depressive symptoms (HD) to a matched sample of 170 children and adolescents reporting low levels of depressive symptoms (LD). Compared to LD, HD participants reported significantly greater shame proneness, poorer functioning on emotion regulation competencies (emotional control, self-awareness and situational responsiveness), less healthy emotion regulation strategy use (less reappraisal and greater suppression), and lower levels of guilt proneness. Empathic concern did not differ between the two groups. The findings enhance current knowledge by providing a more comprehensive profile of the emotional difficulties experienced by children and adolescents with elevated depressive symptoms. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
- Petrass, Lauren, Blitvich, Jennifer, Finch, Caroline
- Authors: Petrass, Lauren , Blitvich, Jennifer , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Injury Prevention Vol. 17, no. 4 (2011), p. 244-249
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565904
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Objective: To identify independent factors associated with caregiver supervision levels at beaches. Methods: Children (aged 1-14 years) engaged in beach play and their caregivers were observed at Australian beaches during September-April, 2008/09. Caregiver, child, and environmental factor data were collected and recorded on a validated observation instrument. The main outcome of interest was a continuous measure of supervision. After adjusting for potential clustering by beach/state, multivariable linear regression was used to identify independent factors associated with caregiver supervision. Results: Four independent predictors of supervision and one interaction effect (child age by the caregiver and child position on beach) were identified. Caregivers who were supervising from a different position to where the child was playing were less likely to provide high supervision, as were older caregivers (>35 years) compared to younger caregivers (≤34 years). Compared to children playing alone, children playing with one, or two or more others were less likely to receive high supervision, and children aged 1-4 years were likely to receive higher supervision than older children. Conclusion: This study provides new knowledge about underlying factors associated with the level of caregiver supervision in beach settings. Future studies should continue to explore independent predictors of supervision so that effective programmes, which focus on caregiver supervision, can be targeted to address poor supervision practices.
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