Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray–Hotham catchment of Western Australia : A projection of rainfall–runoff for future water resources planning
- Islam, Syed, Bari, Mohammed, Anwar, Faisal
- Authors: Islam, Syed , Bari, Mohammed , Anwar, Faisal
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 18, no. 9 (2014), p. 3591-3614
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has attracted attention to the climate change impact on water resources and water availability in this region. In this paper, the hydrologic impact of climate change on the Murray–Hotham catchment in SWWA has been investigated using a multi-model ensemble approach through projection of rainfall and runoff for the periods mid (2046–2065) and late (2081–2100) this century. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias-corrected rainfall data from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of the climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3%with respect to the observed past (1961–1980) and the resulting runoff reduction was found to be 14 %. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and the corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall areas compared to low rainfall areas.Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall events in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected, resulting in significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed by plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for the observed and projected periods. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, the considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.
- Authors: Islam, Syed , Bari, Mohammed , Anwar, Faisal
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 18, no. 9 (2014), p. 3591-3614
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has attracted attention to the climate change impact on water resources and water availability in this region. In this paper, the hydrologic impact of climate change on the Murray–Hotham catchment in SWWA has been investigated using a multi-model ensemble approach through projection of rainfall and runoff for the periods mid (2046–2065) and late (2081–2100) this century. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias-corrected rainfall data from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of the climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3%with respect to the observed past (1961–1980) and the resulting runoff reduction was found to be 14 %. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and the corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall areas compared to low rainfall areas.Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall events in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected, resulting in significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed by plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for the observed and projected periods. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, the considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.
Losing stormwater: 60 years of urbanisation and reduced downstream flow
- Ebbs, David, Dahlhaus, Peter, Barton, Andrew, Kandra, Harpreet
- Authors: Ebbs, David , Dahlhaus, Peter , Barton, Andrew , Kandra, Harpreet
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Conference paper
- Relation: 10th International Conference on Water Sensitive Urban Design: Creating water sensitive communities (WSUD 2018 & Hydropolis 2018), 12-15 February 2018, Perth, Western Australia p. 142-151
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The potential for stormwater to supplement traditional water supplies from upstream catchments or groundwater is high, with claims that the quantity of additional runoff from impervious surfaces in a modern city in a temperate climate is greater than the total potable water demand. To ensure the success of Integrated Urban Water Management, it must consider the broad context of catchment management and the cumulative effect of all factors including river health. Ballarat, an inland city of approximately 100,000 people in south-eastern Australia, has many attributes necessary to potentially exploit stormwater. Given the doubling of population, tripling of residences and 90% increase in average residence size over the past 60 years, over which time flow data is available for the downstream waterway, it might be expected that the flow in the river downstream of the city within the catchment would reflect additional stormwater runoff. However, no increase in flow was detected between 1957 and 1996 while flow over the past 20 years has reduced by 60%. A water balance shows this decrease was not due to extractions as the stream has been a consistent net receiver of water from other catchments. Modelling data from the Australian Water Resources Assessment indicates that the reduction in streamflow is double what might be expected due to climatic variations. Between 1957 and 1996 there was no significant difference between modelled runoff and actual flow, however from 1997 onwards there is a significant divergence. While lower runoff may be expected during the period of drought, the rainfall-runoff relationship does not return to previous levels during latter years of rainfall. The effect is greater during higher flow months, which has significance when identifying potential additional water resources. Base flow has been reduced to the point where dry weather flow is reliant on waste water treatment plant and mine discharge. This study indicates that while impervious surfaces generate higher runoff which can cause environmental damage, making stormwater an attractive water source, consideration must be given to the impacts on the whole catchment when assessing alternative supply options.
- Authors: Ebbs, David , Dahlhaus, Peter , Barton, Andrew , Kandra, Harpreet
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Conference paper
- Relation: 10th International Conference on Water Sensitive Urban Design: Creating water sensitive communities (WSUD 2018 & Hydropolis 2018), 12-15 February 2018, Perth, Western Australia p. 142-151
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The potential for stormwater to supplement traditional water supplies from upstream catchments or groundwater is high, with claims that the quantity of additional runoff from impervious surfaces in a modern city in a temperate climate is greater than the total potable water demand. To ensure the success of Integrated Urban Water Management, it must consider the broad context of catchment management and the cumulative effect of all factors including river health. Ballarat, an inland city of approximately 100,000 people in south-eastern Australia, has many attributes necessary to potentially exploit stormwater. Given the doubling of population, tripling of residences and 90% increase in average residence size over the past 60 years, over which time flow data is available for the downstream waterway, it might be expected that the flow in the river downstream of the city within the catchment would reflect additional stormwater runoff. However, no increase in flow was detected between 1957 and 1996 while flow over the past 20 years has reduced by 60%. A water balance shows this decrease was not due to extractions as the stream has been a consistent net receiver of water from other catchments. Modelling data from the Australian Water Resources Assessment indicates that the reduction in streamflow is double what might be expected due to climatic variations. Between 1957 and 1996 there was no significant difference between modelled runoff and actual flow, however from 1997 onwards there is a significant divergence. While lower runoff may be expected during the period of drought, the rainfall-runoff relationship does not return to previous levels during latter years of rainfall. The effect is greater during higher flow months, which has significance when identifying potential additional water resources. Base flow has been reduced to the point where dry weather flow is reliant on waste water treatment plant and mine discharge. This study indicates that while impervious surfaces generate higher runoff which can cause environmental damage, making stormwater an attractive water source, consideration must be given to the impacts on the whole catchment when assessing alternative supply options.
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