Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Ong, Kanyin, Stafford, Lauryn, McLaughlin, Susan, Boyko, Edward, Vollset, Stein, Smith, Amanda, Dalton, Bronte, Duprey, Joe, Cruz, Jessica, Hagins, Hailey, Lindstedt, Paulina, Aali, Amirali, Abate, Yohannes, Abate, Melew, Abbasian, Mohammadreza, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, ElHafeez, Samar, Abd-Rabu, Rami, Abdulah, Deldar, Abdullah, Abu, Abedi, Vida, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie, Abu-Zaid, Ahmed, Adane, Tigist, Adane, Denberu, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Ong, Kanyin , Stafford, Lauryn , McLaughlin, Susan , Boyko, Edward , Vollset, Stein , Smith, Amanda , Dalton, Bronte , Duprey, Joe , Cruz, Jessica , Hagins, Hailey , Lindstedt, Paulina , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Yohannes , Abate, Melew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , ElHafeez, Samar , Abd-Rabu, Rami , Abdulah, Deldar , Abdullah, Abu , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie , Abu-Zaid, Ahmed , Adane, Tigist , Adane, Denberu , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 402, no. 10397 (2023), p. 203-234
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disea e course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Ong, Kanyin , Stafford, Lauryn , McLaughlin, Susan , Boyko, Edward , Vollset, Stein , Smith, Amanda , Dalton, Bronte , Duprey, Joe , Cruz, Jessica , Hagins, Hailey , Lindstedt, Paulina , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Yohannes , Abate, Melew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , ElHafeez, Samar , Abd-Rabu, Rami , Abdulah, Deldar , Abdullah, Abu , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie , Abu-Zaid, Ahmed , Adane, Tigist , Adane, Denberu , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 402, no. 10397 (2023), p. 203-234
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disea e course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
- Wu, Dongze, Jin, Yingzhao, Xing, Yuhan, Abate, Melsew, Abbasian, Mohammadreza, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin, Abdulah, Deldar, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Vida, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abuabara, Katrina, Abyadeh, Morteza, Addo, Isaac, Adeniji, Kayode, Adepoju, Abiola, Adesina, Miracle, Adnani, Qorinah, Afarideh, Mohsen, Aghamiri, Shahin, Agodi, Antonella, Agrawal, Anurag, Arriagada, Constanza, Ahmad, Antonella, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Alif, Sheikh
- Authors: Wu, Dongze , Jin, Yingzhao , Xing, Yuhan , Abate, Melsew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin , Abdulah, Deldar , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abuabara, Katrina , Abyadeh, Morteza , Addo, Isaac , Adeniji, Kayode , Adepoju, Abiola , Adesina, Miracle , Adnani, Qorinah , Afarideh, Mohsen , Aghamiri, Shahin , Agodi, Antonella , Agrawal, Anurag , Arriagada, Constanza , Ahmad, Antonella , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz , Alif, Sheikh
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: eClinicalMedicine Vol. 64, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of
- Authors: Wu, Dongze , Jin, Yingzhao , Xing, Yuhan , Abate, Melsew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin , Abdulah, Deldar , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abuabara, Katrina , Abyadeh, Morteza , Addo, Isaac , Adeniji, Kayode , Adepoju, Abiola , Adesina, Miracle , Adnani, Qorinah , Afarideh, Mohsen , Aghamiri, Shahin , Agodi, Antonella , Agrawal, Anurag , Arriagada, Constanza , Ahmad, Antonella , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz , Alif, Sheikh
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: eClinicalMedicine Vol. 64, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of
Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Kyu, Hmwe, Vongpradith, Avina, Sirota, Sarah, Novotney, Amanda, Troeger, Christopher, Doxey, Matthew, Bender, Rose, Ledesma, Jorge, Biehl, Molly, Albertson, Samuel, Frostad, Joseph, Burkart, Katrin, Bennitt, Fiona, Zhao, Jeff, Gardner, William, Hagins, Hailey, Bryazka, Dana, Dominguez, Regina, Abate, Semagn, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abdoli, Amir, Abdoli, Gholamreza, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Vida, Abegaz, Tadesse, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Nguyen, Huy, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019
- Kocarnik, Jonathan, Compton, Kelly, Dean, Fean, Fu, Weijia, Gaw, Brian, Harvey, James, Henrikson, Hannah, Lu, Dan, Pennini, Alyssa, Xu, Rixing, Ababneh, Emad, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Elsalam, Sherief, Abdoli, Amir, Abedi, Aidin, Abidi, Hassan, Abolhassani, Hassan, Adedeji, Isaac, Adnani, Qorinath, Advani, Shailesh, Afzal, Muhammad, Aghaali, Mohammad, Ahinkorah, Bright, Ahmad, Sajjad, Ahmad, Tauseef, Ahmadi, Ali, Ahmadi, Sepideh, Ahmed Rashid, Tarik, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Kocarnik, Jonathan , Compton, Kelly , Dean, Fean , Fu, Weijia , Gaw, Brian , Harvey, James , Henrikson, Hannah , Lu, Dan , Pennini, Alyssa , Xu, Rixing , Ababneh, Emad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdoli, Amir , Abedi, Aidin , Abidi, Hassan , Abolhassani, Hassan , Adedeji, Isaac , Adnani, Qorinath , Advani, Shailesh , Afzal, Muhammad , Aghaali, Mohammad , Ahinkorah, Bright , Ahmad, Sajjad , Ahmad, Tauseef , Ahmadi, Ali , Ahmadi, Sepideh , Ahmed Rashid, Tarik , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: JAMA Oncology Vol. 8, no. 3 (2022), p. 420-444
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record**
- Authors: Kocarnik, Jonathan , Compton, Kelly , Dean, Fean , Fu, Weijia , Gaw, Brian , Harvey, James , Henrikson, Hannah , Lu, Dan , Pennini, Alyssa , Xu, Rixing , Ababneh, Emad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdoli, Amir , Abedi, Aidin , Abidi, Hassan , Abolhassani, Hassan , Adedeji, Isaac , Adnani, Qorinath , Advani, Shailesh , Afzal, Muhammad , Aghaali, Mohammad , Ahinkorah, Bright , Ahmad, Sajjad , Ahmad, Tauseef , Ahmadi, Ali , Ahmadi, Sepideh , Ahmed Rashid, Tarik , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: JAMA Oncology Vol. 8, no. 3 (2022), p. 420-444
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- Description: IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record**
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Ikuta, Kevin, Swetschinski, Lucien, Robles Aguilar, Gisela, Sharara, Fablina, Mestrovic, Tomislav, Gray, Authia, Davis Weaver, Nicole, Wool, Eve, Han, Chieh, Gershberg Hayoon, Anna, Aali, Amirali, Abate, Semagn, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abd-Elsalam, Sherief, Abebe, Getachew, Abedi, Aidin, Abhari, Amir, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Absalan, Abdorrahim, Abubaker Ali, Hiwa, Acuna, Juan, Adane, Tigist, Addo, Isaac, Adegboye, Oyelola, Adnan, Mohammad, Adnani, Qorinah, Afzal, Muhammad, Afzal, Saira, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Ikuta, Kevin , Swetschinski, Lucien , Robles Aguilar, Gisela , Sharara, Fablina , Mestrovic, Tomislav , Gray, Authia , Davis Weaver, Nicole , Wool, Eve , Han, Chieh , Gershberg Hayoon, Anna , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Semagn , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abebe, Getachew , Abedi, Aidin , Abhari, Amir , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abubaker Ali, Hiwa , Acuna, Juan , Adane, Tigist , Addo, Isaac , Adegboye, Oyelola , Adnan, Mohammad , Adnani, Qorinah , Afzal, Muhammad , Afzal, Saira , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10369 (2022), p. 2221-2248
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- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vac ines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Ikuta, Kevin , Swetschinski, Lucien , Robles Aguilar, Gisela , Sharara, Fablina , Mestrovic, Tomislav , Gray, Authia , Davis Weaver, Nicole , Wool, Eve , Han, Chieh , Gershberg Hayoon, Anna , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Semagn , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abebe, Getachew , Abedi, Aidin , Abhari, Amir , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abubaker Ali, Hiwa , Acuna, Juan , Adane, Tigist , Addo, Isaac , Adegboye, Oyelola , Adnan, Mohammad , Adnani, Qorinah , Afzal, Muhammad , Afzal, Saira , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10369 (2022), p. 2221-2248
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vac ines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
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