Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
- Chand, Savin, Walsh, Kevin, Camargo, Suzana, Kossin, James, Tory, Kevin, Wehner, Michael, Chan, Johnny, Klotzbach, Philip, Dowdy, Andrew, Bell, Samuel, Ramsay, Hamish, Murakami, Hiroyuki
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Walsh, Kevin , Camargo, Suzana , Kossin, James , Tory, Kevin , Wehner, Michael , Chan, Johnny , Klotzbach, Philip , Dowdy, Andrew , Bell, Samuel , Ramsay, Hamish , Murakami, Hiroyuki
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Nature Climate Change Vol. 12, no. 7 (2022), p. 655-661
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable. © 2022, The Author(s).
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Walsh, Kevin , Camargo, Suzana , Kossin, James , Tory, Kevin , Wehner, Michael , Chan, Johnny , Klotzbach, Philip , Dowdy, Andrew , Bell, Samuel , Ramsay, Hamish , Murakami, Hiroyuki
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Nature Climate Change Vol. 12, no. 7 (2022), p. 655-661
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable. © 2022, The Author(s).
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region : Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
- Chand, Savin, Dowdy, Andrew, Ramsay, Hamish, Walsh, Kevin, Tory, Kevin, Power, Scott, Bell, Samuel, Lavender, Sally, Ye, Hua, Kuleshov, Yuri
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
Impact of different ENSO regimes on southwest pacific tropical cyclones
- Chand, Savin, McBride, John, Tory, Kevin, Wheeler, Matthew, Walsh, Kevin
- Authors: Chand, Savin , McBride, John , Tory, Kevin , Wheeler, Matthew , Walsh, Kevin
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Climate Vol. 26, no. 2 (2013), p. 600-608
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: The influence of different types of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) interannual variability in the central southwest Pacific region (58-258S, 1708E-1708W) is investigated. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis and an agglomerative hierarchical clustering of early tropical cyclone season Pacific sea surface temperature, years are classified into four separate regimes (i.e., canonical El Niño, canonical La Niña, positive-neutral, and negative-neutral) for the period between 1970 and 2009.These regimes are found to have a large impact on TC genesis over the central southwest Pacific region. Both the canonical El Niño and the positive-neutral years have increased numbers of cyclones, with an average of 4.3 yr-1 for positive-neutral and 4 yr-1 for canonical El Niño. In contrast, during a La Niña and negative-neutral events, substantially fewer TCs (averages of ;2.2 and 2.4 yr-1, respectively) are observed in the central southwest Pacific. The enhancement of TC numbers in both canonical El Niño and positive-neutral years is associated with the extension of favorable low-level cyclonic relative vorticity, and low vertical wind shear eastward across the date line. Relative humidity and SST are also very conducive forgenesis in this region during canonical El Niño and positiveneutral events. The patterns are quite different, however, with the favorable conditions concentrated in the date line region for the positive-neutral, as compared with conditions farther eastward for the canonical El Niño regime. A significant result of the study is the demonstration that ENSO-neutralevents can be objectively clustered into two separate regimes, each with very different impacts on TCgenesis. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
- Authors: Chand, Savin , McBride, John , Tory, Kevin , Wheeler, Matthew , Walsh, Kevin
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Climate Vol. 26, no. 2 (2013), p. 600-608
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: The influence of different types of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) interannual variability in the central southwest Pacific region (58-258S, 1708E-1708W) is investigated. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis and an agglomerative hierarchical clustering of early tropical cyclone season Pacific sea surface temperature, years are classified into four separate regimes (i.e., canonical El Niño, canonical La Niña, positive-neutral, and negative-neutral) for the period between 1970 and 2009.These regimes are found to have a large impact on TC genesis over the central southwest Pacific region. Both the canonical El Niño and the positive-neutral years have increased numbers of cyclones, with an average of 4.3 yr-1 for positive-neutral and 4 yr-1 for canonical El Niño. In contrast, during a La Niña and negative-neutral events, substantially fewer TCs (averages of ;2.2 and 2.4 yr-1, respectively) are observed in the central southwest Pacific. The enhancement of TC numbers in both canonical El Niño and positive-neutral years is associated with the extension of favorable low-level cyclonic relative vorticity, and low vertical wind shear eastward across the date line. Relative humidity and SST are also very conducive forgenesis in this region during canonical El Niño and positiveneutral events. The patterns are quite different, however, with the favorable conditions concentrated in the date line region for the positive-neutral, as compared with conditions farther eastward for the canonical El Niño regime. A significant result of the study is the demonstration that ENSO-neutralevents can be objectively clustered into two separate regimes, each with very different impacts on TCgenesis. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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