Description:
The series of financial crises that cascaded through and rocked much of the world over the past decade created opportunities to draw meaning from the pattern of countries succumbing to crisis and those who appear to be wholly or partially immune. This thesis examines the case of Australia, a developed country that has seldom experienced an endogenous crisis in the last few decades, but has experienced crisis by contagion. This study designs a financial stress index to measure and forecast the health of the Australian economy and proposes a custom-made stress index to: Gauge the potential for a crisis; and Signal when a timely intervention may minimise fear and contagion losses in the Australian financial market. Financial and economic data is used to design indicators for stress in the banking sector and equity, currency and bond markets. Further, this study explores how movements in equity markets of key trading partners of Australia can be used to predict movements in the Australian equity market. The variance-equal weights (VEW) and principal components approach (PCA) are used to subsume 22 stress indicators into a composite stress index. The VEW and PCA stress indexes were examined to determine monitoring and their forecasting capabilities. It was found that the VEW stress index performed better than the PCA stress index, because it provided more consistent estimates for the level of Australian financial stress. Although, both models show some promise, each model fell short of giving adequate forecasts in financial stress especially at the peak time of the 2007-2009 GFC. Thus, more research is needed to understand the complex nature of financial crisis, how crises develop and the techniques that can be used to predict the onset of financial crises.
Description:
The series of financial crises that cascaded through and rocked much of the world over the past decade created opportunities to draw meaning from the pattern of countries succumbing to crisis and those who appear to be wholly or partially immune. This thesis examines the case of Australia, a developed country that has seldom experienced an endogenous crisis in the last few decades, but has experienced crisis by contagion. This study designs a financial stress index to measure and forecast the health of the Australian economy and proposes a custom-made stress index to: Gauge the potential for a crisis; and Signal when a timely intervention may minimise fear and contagion losses in the Australian financial market. Financial and economic data is used to design indicators for stress in the banking sector and equity, currency and bond markets. Further, this study explores how movements in equity markets of key trading partners of Australia can be used to predict movements in the Australian equity market. The variance-equal weights (VEW) and principal components approach (PCA) are used to subsume 22 stress indicators into a composite stress index. The VEW and PCA stress indexes were examined to determine monitoring and their forecasting capabilities. It was found that the VEW stress index performed better than the PCA stress index, because it provided more consistent estimates for the level of Australian financial stress. Although, both models show some promise, each model fell short of giving adequate forecasts in financial stress especially at the peak time of the 2007-2009 GFC. Thus, more research is needed to understand the complex nature of financial crisis, how crises develop and the techniques that can be used to predict the onset of financial crises.
Description:
Refuges for women escaping domestic violence have traditionally been communal residences located in metropolitan areas. More recently, alternative service models have been funded to provide for clients with multiple and complex needs. This paper evaluates the first year of operation of an innovative refuge model for women and their children. "Marg's Place" is a statewide, high security, dispersed accommodation support model located in a regional setting. Evaluation methods included interviews, surveys, and analysis of client databases and program documents. Thirty-five women and 42 children used the service for an average stay of 20 days during the first 12 months. The main findings were that the dispersed model can cater for a wide range of service users, including those with multiple and complex needs, who would be unlikely to be successfully accommodated in a communal refuge. There was little evidence that the dispersed model contributes to feelings of isolation or loneliness for women or children. The regional setting presented both advantages and disadvantages for women wanting to resettle in the area. Women reported significantly enhanced levels of empowerment, and the high security provisions met their needs for safety. Overall, this refuge model provides an accessible, responsive and effective service.
Description:
A wide range of decision-making models have been offered to assist in making ethical decisions in the workplace. Those that are based on normative moral frameworks typically include elements of traditional moral philosophy such as consequentialist and/or deontological␣ethics. This paper suggests an alternative model drawing on Jean-Paul Sartre’s existentialism. Accordingly, the model focuses on making decisions in full awareness of one’s freedom and responsibility. The steps of the model are intended to encourage reflection of one’s projects and one’s situation and the possibility of refusing the expectations of others. A case study involving affirmative action in South Africa is used to demonstrate the workings of the model and a number of strengths and weaknesses are identified. Despite several weaknesses that can be raised regarding existential ethics, the model’s success lies in the way that it reframes ethical dilemmas in terms of individual freedom and responsibility, and in its acceptance and analysis of subjective experiences and personal situations.
Description:
This paper presents a model of knowledge acquisition from definitions of data, information and knowledge. The model asserts that knowledge cannot exist outside of the human brain, and that any expression of the knowledge requires it to be transformed into information to be communicated outside of the brain. The model asserts that information is acquired through the sensors to the brain where it is processed with prior knowledge and that new knowledge can be created from the processing of information within the brain only. From a discussion of this model in the context of alternative viewpoints, it is concluded that the future focus for knowledge management should be toward human resource strategies that leverage human-intellectual capital within firms and for the dissemination and sharing of important information that promotes creativity and innovation within and between employees.
Description:
Menard pressuremeter testing has been widely used in geotechnical engineering applications for 40 years and is an important technique in determining in-situ horizontal stress distributions. In this study, Menard pressuremeter testing is combined with a "cookie-cutter" insertion technique to determine horizontal stresses for a soft-rock in an operational Australian mine. The method presents an alternative to the Self-Bored Pressuremeter, with cookie-cutter drill rods allowing for sample recovery and further laboratory testing. The method accommodates for the presence of gravel and hard layered materials that present a risk of damage to cutting shoes of Self-Bored Pressuremeter devices. The combination of a sonic drill rig, coupled with the cookie cutter rods produces a close tolerance pocket resulting in "pseudo self boring pressuremeter tests". The undrained shear strength, unload-reload shear modulus and in-situ horizontal stress are presented from pressuremeter tests conducted in the region for the first time. The undrained shear strength was observed in the range of 0.47-0.57 MPa, the unload-reload shear modulus between 17.43 and 18.25 MPa, the lift-off pressure in the range of 0.35-0.61 MPa. The K-0 of coal was equal to 1, with interseam materials ranging from 2.1 to 3.5. Results of the cookie-cutter insertion method are compared with conventional drilling methods, with the cookie-cutter insertion test providing results in good agreement with both advanced triaxial laboratory tests and FEM numerical analysis. Cookie-cutter pressuremeter tests were conducted on cohesive soils at Australia's second-largest open-pit mine, with pressuremeter test results presented for Victorian brown coal for the first time.
Description:
A partial latent structural regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of perceived stress and coping resources on depression following acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in a sample of 113 participants (25 females and 88 males with a mean age of 57.61 years (SD = 12.63). Out of them, 55 participants were Australian born and 48 were born elsewhere, with 53 of the patients scoring in the mild to high depression range on the Beck Depression Inventory and the Cardiac Depression Scale. Perceived stress and coping resources, after controlling for age and smoking explained 89% of the variance in the latent variable depression. Higher perceived stress levels and fewer coping resources predicted higher levels of depression. Higher levels of perceived stress predicted fewer coping resources and fewer coping resources predicted higher levels of depression. There was a significant direct and indirect effect of perceived stress through coping on depression. Cognitive and physical coping resources were the best predictors of the depression construct. These results have potential implications for the treatment of depression post-ACS. In particular, cognitive and physical coping mechanisms and perceived stress reduction need to be addressed when treating depression post-ACS.
Description:
Intersectoral partnerships in health have a central role in current policy and programs. Partnerships are seen to be an effective strategy for maximising health outcomes. However, theoretical models of health partnerships are underdeveloped. Moreover, the research literature contains inconsistent findings about their effectiveness, and there has been very little evaluative research on health partnerships in this country. This paper reports on a case study of an intersectoral consortium using a health promotion approach to cardiovascular disease. A model of partnership formation and development is presented. From this, a research strategy was devised and carried out. Results indicate that the health consortium was formed inresponse to a critical health issue, and as a separate legal entity without recurrent funding, it has been sustained through the commitment of individual members. Project funding has, in large part, dictated its operations. The case study reveals the strengths, vulnnerabilities and achievements of this consortium over five years. To produce sustainable health outcomes, the researchers conclude, partnerships require strategic management to capitalise on individual endeavours, organisational alignments, and government or funder priorities. Ideological zeal for intersectoral health partnerships must be balanced by rigorous evaluation; together with more sophisticated indicators for measuring success in partnerships in health promotion. Theoretical development of models of health partnerships will also contribute to their enhanced effectiveness.
Description:
Intersectoral partnerships in health have a central role in current policy and programs. Partnerships are seen to be an effective strategy for maximising health outcomes. However, theoretical models of health partnerships are underdeveloped. Moreover, the research literature contains inconsistent findings about their effectiveness, and there has been very little evaluative research on health partnerships in this country. This paper reports on a case study of an intersectoral consortium using a health promotion approach to cardiovascular disease. A model of partnership formation and development is presented. From this, a research strategy was devised and carried out. Results indicate that the health consortium was formed inresponse to a critical health issue, and as a separate legal entity without recurrent funding, it has been sustained through the commitment of individual members. Project funding has, in large part, dictated its operations. The case study reveals the strengths, vulnnerabilities and achievements of this consortium over five years. To produce sustainable health outcomes, the researchers conclude, partnerships require strategic management to capitalise on individual endeavours, organisational alignments, and government or funder priorities. Ideological zeal for intersectoral health partnerships must be balanced by rigorous evaluation; together with more sophisticated indicators for measuring success in partnerships in health promotion. Theoretical development of models of health partnerships will also contribute to their enhanced effectiveness.
Description:
The tide gauge results exhibit strong multi-decadal oscillations with detected periodicities up to a quasi-60 years. This translates in the requirement of at least 60-70 years of continuously recorded data without any quality issue and the use of a procedure appropriate for time series with periodic components to infer the acceleration trend. This is not what is done in many recent papers where the oscillating behaviour is neglected and short or incomplete records arbitrarily extended or reconstructed are used to infer wrong accelerating trends. All the tide gauges of enough length and quality show the sea levels are oscillating with important multi-decadal periodicities but absolutely not positively accelerating. The satellite radar altimeter reconstruction of the global mean sea level only available since 1993 shows despite the many uncertainties of a still imperfect procedure a not positively accelerating behaviour. The presence of acceleration in the reconstructed or extended data sets and the lack of acceleration in all the individual tide gauge measurements of enough quality and length certainly deserve further discussion. This is a comment to a previously published original paper made on the basis of other previously published results and not a new original paper.
Description:
Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury rates have increased by ∼50% over the last 10 years. These figures suggest that ACL focused research has not been effective in reducing injury rates among community level athletes. Training protocols designed to reduce ACL injury rates have been both effective (n = 3) and ineffective (n = 7). Although a rationale for the use of exercise to reduce ACL injuries is established, the mechanisms by which they act are relatively unknown. This article provides an injury prevention framework specific to noncontact ACL injuries and the design of prophylactic training protocols. It is also apparent that feedback within this framework is needed to determine how biomechanically relevant risk factors like peak joint loading and muscular support are influenced following training. It is by identifying these links that more effective ACL injury prevention training programs can be developed, and, in turn, lead to reduced ACL injury rates in the future.
Description:
The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Nino and La Nina regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Nina regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.
Description:
The biopsychosocial (BPS) model proposes that health is best understood as a combination of bio-physiological, psychological and social determinants, and thus advocates for a far more comprehensive investigation of the relationships between ‘mind-body’ health. For this holistic analysis, we need a suitable measure to indicate participants’ ‘biological’ stress. With the advent of wearable sensor devices, health monitoring is becoming easier. In this study, we focus on bio-physiological indicators of stress, from wearable devices using the heart-rate data. The analysis of such heart-rate data presents a set of practical challenges. We review various measures currently in use for stress measurement and their relevance and significance with the wearables’ heart-rate data. In this paper, we propose to use the novel ‘peak heart-rate count’ metric to quantify level of ‘biological’ stress. Real life biometric data obtained from digital health intervention program was considered for the study. Our study indicates the significance of using frequency of ‘peak heart-rate count’ as a ‘biological’ stress measure.
Description:
It is not uncommon for conventional ballasted railway track systems to have unsupported sleepers due the uneven settlement of the ballast or subgrade. In order to investigate the possible implications of unsupported sleepers, this paper describes the development of a dynamic finite element model which includes wheel/rail friction. The developed model was used to investigate the behavior of a section of existing track on the ballasted Shuohuang heavy haul railway line in China. The investigation showed that the maximum displacement of the rails and sleepers increases significantly with the number of consecutive unsupported sleepers. Furthermore, the magnitude of the displacement between an unsupported sleeper and the ballast is likely to greatly exacerbate ballast/sleeper attrition and reduce the fatigue life of the hanging sleeper. An increase in the number of unsupported sleepers amplifies these effects. In addition, it was found that the sleepers adjacent to unsupported ones carry an additional load resulting potentially in their increased wear and additional damage to the substructure. To better understand the wider implications of the presence of unsupported sleepers on track performance, the stability, safety (in terms of derailment) and potential for rail and substructure damage were computed as a function of the number of unsupported sleepers (one to four) and compared with specifications. The results showed that the number of unsupported sleepers has a significant adverse impact on all four measures. However, while the effects on stability, safety and rail damage were within the limits suggested in specifications, even when four sleepers were modeled, the potential for substructure failure within a typical design life of the railway system was identified.
Description:
One of the important factors during drilling times is the rate of penetration (ROP), which is controlled based on different variables. Factors affecting different drillings are of paramount importance. In the current research, an attempt was made to better recognize drilling parameters and optimize them based on an optimization algorithm. For this purpose, 618 data sets, including RPM, flushing media, and compressive strength parameters, were measured and collected. After an initial investigation, the compressive strength feature of samples, which is an important parameter from the rocks, was used as a proper criterion for classification. Then using intelligent systems, three different levels of the rock strength and all data were modeled. The results showed that systems which were classified based on compressive strength showed a better performance for ROP assessment due to the proximity of features. Therefore, these three levels were used for classification. A new artificial bee colony algorithm was used to solve this problem. Optimizations were applied to the selected models under different optimization conditions, and optimal states were determined. As determining drilling machine parameters is important, these parameters were determined based on optimal conditions. The obtained results showed that this intelligent system can well improve drilling conditions and increase the ROP value for three strength levels of the rocks. This modeling system can be used in different drilling operations.
Description:
One of the important factors during drilling times is the rate of penetration (ROP), which is controlled based on different variables. Factors affecting different drillings are of paramount importance. In the current research, an attempt was made to better recognize drilling parameters and optimize them based on an optimization algorithm. For this purpose, 618 data sets, including RPM, flushing media, and compressive strength parameters, were measured and collected. After an initial investigation, the compressive strength feature of samples, which is an important parameter from the rocks, was used as a proper criterion for classification. Then using intelligent systems, three different levels of the rock strength and all data were modeled. The results showed that systems which were classified based on compressive strength showed a better performance for ROP assessment due to the proximity of features. Therefore, these three levels were used for classification. A new artificial bee colony algorithm was used to solve this problem. Optimizations were applied to the selected models under different optimization conditions, and optimal states were determined. As determining drilling machine parameters is important, these parameters were determined based on optimal conditions. The obtained results showed that this intelligent system can well improve drilling conditions and increase the ROP value for three strength levels of the rocks. This modeling system can be used in different drilling operations.
Description:
Simulations and projections of the El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO's) influence on TC track variability was analysed globally using Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The ability of these models to simulate the historical (1970-2000) ENSO-TC track relationship and inform us of the likely projected changes resulting from high carbon emissions (RCP8.5) in a climate projection (2070-2100) was determined through cluster analysis. The number of seasonal TC occurrences during traditional ENSO events ("El Nino" and "La Nina") in each cluster were used to determine whether each cluster was "El Nino dominant", "La Nina dominant" or "neither". Only seven out of a combined total of 28 clusters across all basins were found to disagree in terms of "ENSO dominance" between the observed records and historical model simulations. This suggests that models can simulate the ENSO and TC track relationship reasonably well. Under sustained high carbon emissions, La Nina TCs were projected to become dominant over El Nino TCs in the central South Indian Ocean ( 60-100 degrees E), the southern Bay of Bengal and over straight-moving TCs in the South China Sea. El Nino TCs were projected to increase and become dominant over La Nina TCs in a larger area of the western South Pacific ( 160 degrees E-165 degrees W) and central North Pacific ( 160 degrees E-145 degrees W) Oceans. Projections of track directions and lifetimes, while less robust, indicated that El Nino TCs would track westward more often in the Coral Sea (150-165 degrees E), while El Nino TCs that took an eastward track here would have longer lifetimes ( 3 days).
Description:
Simulations and projections of the El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO's) influence on TC track variability was analysed globally using Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The ability of these models to simulate the historical (1970-2000) ENSO-TC track relationship and inform us of the likely projected changes resulting from high carbon emissions (RCP8.5) in a climate projection (2070-2100) was determined through cluster analysis. The number of seasonal TC occurrences during traditional ENSO events ("El Nino" and "La Nina") in each cluster were used to determine whether each cluster was "El Nino dominant", "La Nina dominant" or "neither". Only seven out of a combined total of 28 clusters across all basins were found to disagree in terms of "ENSO dominance" between the observed records and historical model simulations. This suggests that models can simulate the ENSO and TC track relationship reasonably well. Under sustained high carbon emissions, La Nina TCs were projected to become dominant over El Nino TCs in the central South Indian Ocean ( 60-100 degrees E), the southern Bay of Bengal and over straight-moving TCs in the South China Sea. El Nino TCs were projected to increase and become dominant over La Nina TCs in a larger area of the western South Pacific ( 160 degrees E-165 degrees W) and central North Pacific ( 160 degrees E-145 degrees W) Oceans. Projections of track directions and lifetimes, while less robust, indicated that El Nino TCs would track westward more often in the Coral Sea (150-165 degrees E), while El Nino TCs that took an eastward track here would have longer lifetimes ( 3 days).
Description:
In this paper, we propose a systematic design of evolutionary optimization, namely Multimodal Memetic Framework (MMF), to effectively search the vast complex energy landscape. Our proposed memetic framework is implemented in hierarchical stages with the optimization of each stage performed in parallel in three different states: Exploratory, Exploitative and Central. Each state, with its own set of sub-populations, either explores or exploits by beneficial mixing of potential solutions to direct the search towards a global solution. Instead of implementing identical genetic operators, the proposed approach employs different selection and survival criteria in each state according to their designated task. The Exploratory state employs a knowledge-based initial population generation technique with appropriately tuned genetic operators to guide the search to the "nearest peak". The Exploitative state fine-tunes the individuals representing different regions by applying a building block based local search. Finally, by utilizing the imbibed knowledge from different peaks, the Central state carries out information-exchange among the highly fit solutions for exploring the undiscovered regions. The information exchange employs a novel non-random parental selection technique to distribute the reproduction opportunity intelligently among the individuals for making cross-over more effective. The method has been tested on a set of various benchmark protein sequences for 2D and 3D lattice models. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over other state-of-the-art algorithms.
Description:
Increases in woody plant densities in savanna grazing lands worldwide have resulted in a decline in the grazing, capacity of these rangelands. At present. the actual cause of the problem is unknown although a vast body of literature deals with various aspects relevant to the issue. It is generally assumed, however. that the changes in the tree : grass ratio are a response to changes in soil-water development brought about by rangeland utilization. These utilization patterns differ from those under which the savanna system evolved. While changes in physiognomy are very prominent. these are generally preceded by changes in grass species assemblage. The development of species composition has been used as an indicator of rangeland condition for many years; the increase or decrease of individual species is considered in this context. Thus far. however, the shift from perennial to annual grasses has not been evaluated for its effect on soil moisture development, and subsequent implications for woody plant establishment and growth. The review presented here consolidates the existing information in order to provide a basis for understanding the woody weed encroachment problem. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.