Description:
The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
Description:
A key departure in this study from many earlier studies is that, on the continuum of financial stress from nil to very high, both very high levels of stress and very low levels are seen as being harmful and potential harbinger of a financial-market crisis. Specifically, a surfeit of stress can act as a tipping point into crisis and a dearth of stress can encourage hubris and increase a nation’s susceptibility to financial contagion from another nation; even one that is far removed by geographic and/or economic distance. This paper focuses on developing financial stress indices for the US and Australia using composite market indices, trade weight indices and yields on securities with different maturity dates. Monthly data from January 1989 to December 2011 was sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis website, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Yahoo finance website. For purposes of this study the aggregate measures of stress consists of inverted yield spreads, volatility measures for market indices, volatility measures of trade weighted indexes, risk spreads, credit risk spreads and a measures of risk in the equity market.
Description:
[1] The use of inverse one-dimensional (1-D) analytical methods for estimating vertical stream-aquifer exchange flux is now commonplace. However, the application of such simple models can lead to significant errors in estimates of vertical exchange flux where the model assumptions are violated in real systems. An idea that is gaining acceptance in the literature is that the presence of nonvertical flow is such a violation. However, it is shown here that nonvertical flow by itself will not necessarily lead to errors in vertical flux estimation but rather that significant errors can stem from nonuniform (convergent/divergent) flow fields and/or hydrodynamic dispersion even within uniform flow fields. Nonuniform flow may also be expected, in some cases, to create discrepancies between flux estimates made on the basis of vertical head gradient measurements and those made using 1-D analytical heat tracer methods. Significant differences are observed in the estimates of heat-derived fluxes obtained by the amplitude ratio and phase-shift time-series methods when convergent and divergent flows are apparent. Such differences may potentially be used to infer that convergent or divergent flow is occurring and that a 1-D analysis is inappropriate.
Description:
The Global Financial Crisis is likely to exert some impact upon the prevailing economic and political philosophy. The big question for economic and business instructors is to ponder whether it will lead to any significant changes in economic and business syllabus at Australian universities. The teaching of mainstream economics is durable and usually resistant to change. Yet the crisis has certainly caused rumblings in the teaching of first-year economics. There is certainly a great curiosity among the young about what went wrong. Moreover, they wish to know why neoliberalism has failed and why state intervention is resurgent. Young minds must be perplexed about the rapid revision of agenda from containing inflation in 2008 to coping with recession in 2009. This paper argues that an introductory course in the history of economic ideas could help tell them why.
Description:
This study examines the determinants of turnover intentions of off farm migrant workers, using data collected from China’s Jiangsu Province. Turnover intention is posited to be a function of demographic/human capital characteristics, job characteristics and job satisfaction. We find that higher levels of education have a positive effect on reported turnover intentions, while higher income and job satisfaction have a negative effect on turnover intentions. To the extent turnover intentions represent a good proxy for actual turnover, the results can be viewed as providing reliable predictors of job mobility among off farm migrant workers at a time when there is a growing shortage of such workers in China’s coastal provinces.
Description:
Grouping regional towns and cities in Australia according to economic functions could improve understanding of the importance of economic factors in determining growth. Several researchers have used clustering techniques to examine the growth and characteristics of regional cities in Australia. The current study extends clustering methodologies by adopting an optimisation approach based on a clustering technique using the k-means algorithm to investigate the impact of socio-economic factors on population growth and decline in regional Australia. The analysis in the paper suggests that industry of employment, individual weekly income, age group and education level have an important impact on population change. These findings have policy implications for economic planning of regional areas in Australia.
Description:
This article examines China's approach to industrial consultation by examining six tripartite bodies at the national, provincial and county levels. It argues that the institutionalisation of tripartitism is consistent with China's overall approach to market reform being characterised by experimentalism, gradualism, dynamism and a gradual softening of party domination. Despite limitations, it is accepted that China is building a transition tripartite system that is bolstering the autonomy and representational capacity of the social partners.
Description:
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.
Description:
The disappointing outcome from the United Nations Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change in December 2009 affected many social researchers who had hoped that the world leaders would shine a guiding light towards a sustainable development paradigm shift in society. A guiding light that would provide a clear pathway for all the world’s citizens to an environmentally safe and equitable “Spaceship Earth” (Boulding, 1966). Much discussion arose after this failed summit about the need for ‘bottom-up’ adaptation and resilience as the alternative. Valuable as such an approach is to address the environmental concerns, its incremental change and modest institutional reforms limit the extent of sustainable development. Paradigm shift requires creative destruction of the type Joseph Schumpeter advocated when in times of crisis. Innovation lies at the heart of such a radical approach. Based on the need to raise the profile of this innovation approach to sustainable development, the Research Network on Innovation – the sponsor of this journal – decided to organise the next biennial Spirit of Innovation conference around the theme ‘Environment, Innovation and Sustainable Development’. Thus was that on the 7th and 8th October 2010, the “Spirit of Innovation IV” Forum was held at the Euromed Management School in Marseille.
Description:
This paper examines the empirical outcomes of the policies of nine monetary authorities (eight OECD nations and the Euro zone) so as to infer the strength and stability of the economic relationships behind those policies. Governments, responding to earlier rampant inflation, have in recent decades avowed to pursue monetary policies to maintain inflation at a low stable rate. In recent decades, the relationship between inflation and money supply, that is postulated in the received wisdom and confirmed by decades of observation, appears to be breaking down. In examining possible causes of this instability, this paper sees on-going changes in the velocity-of-money to be less plausible than shifting dominance in world currencies or the creative destruction of technological progress. This paper suggests the relative monetary stability of recent decades may be less achievable in the future.
Description:
Education policies and practices developed for urban populations are not always effective when implemented in regional and remote locations. Despite government policy initiatives that may provide for collaboration across communities, a singular issue is that a diversity of solutions may be required rather than a 'one size fits all' approach. This article presents a potential solution to this problem through engaging collaboration and co-creation to optimise educational opportunities in initial teacher education in Australia. Qualitative analysis of a collaborative and co-created process of enhancement, lesson development and reflection brings together the every-day problem-solving processes used by pre-service teachers and classroom students with those used by research scientists and community experts. A consequence of such a process that benefits regional and remote communities is the development of collaborative networks founded in co-creation of educational opportunities and based on daily life in local communities.
Description:
Forecasting supply and demand is fundamental to the sustainability of the water system. Demand for urban water seems on an ever-upward trajectory, with use increasing twice as quickly as population throughout the 20th century. However, data from Ballarat, a city in south-eastern Australia, show that despite this conventionally held wisdom, total water usage actually peaked over 30 years ago. While the 1997–2009 ‘Millennium Drought’ had some effect, the decline commenced many years before. Initially, this was due to a reduction in external domestic water use, which correlates well with an increase in water price. However, the effect was found to not be purely economic as the price was not volumetric-based. Internal water use seems more affected by technological advances and regulatory controls. Interestingly, there was no relationship found between rainfall and water demand. The role of price, water-reduction education programmes, water-efficient technology and regulation supports previous research that a multifaceted approach is required when developing demand-reduction policies and strategies. This finding emphasises the importance of understanding the component of consumptive behaviour being targeted, and ensuring that policies being implemented are appropriate for the desired behavioural change.
Description:
A political economy approach to the transition process required the incorporation not only of the economic structure but also of the political and ideological structures. Consequently, an application of a political economy methodology to the transition process gives rise to alternative models of transition. Each model confronts the elements of the transition process - economic analysis; what is a good society? speed; political structure; ideological structure and whether the initial conditions were a concern - with different solutions, making it meaningful to distinguish between alternative models.
Description:
A new reliability evaluation methodology for multistate weighted k-out-of-n systems is presented in this article. The present value of the cash flow generated by the system components is used as a reliability value. We take a financial view of reliability and consider functioning periods and the time value of money in system reliability analysis. Two approaches, the universal generating function (UGF) and recursive algorithm, are applied to evaluate the reliability of the multistate weighted k-out-of-n system. An illustrative example is calculated based on the proposed system reliability evaluation methodology. It is shown that this evaluation method can also be used to find the value of the maintenance policy. Finally, the UGF and recursive algorithm approaches are compared with each other for large system reliability assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Engineering Economist is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)