Description:
Beginning with the WTO's Doha Development Agenda and establishment of the Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have become central to the global development agenda. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reforms due to the importance of grains in the diets of the poor, presence of relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and therefore poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be indiscernible. This paper formally tests the “invisibility hypothesis” using the method of stochastic simulation in a trade-poverty modeling framework. The hypothesis test is based on the comparison of two samples of price and poverty distributions. The first originates solely from the inherent variability in global staple grains markets, while the second combines the effects of inherent market variability with those of trade reform in these same markets. Results, at the national and stratum level indicate that the short-run poverty impacts of full trade liberalization in staple grains trade worldwide, are distinguishable in only four of the fifteen countries, suggesting that impacts of more modest agricultural trade reforms are indeed likely to be invisible in short run. Countries that show statistically significant short run impacts are the ones characterized by high staple grains tariffs and/or a moderate degree of grain markets variability. Within each country, results are heterogeneous. In two thirds of the sample countries, agriculturally self-employed poor experience statistically significant poverty impacts from trade liberalization. However, this figure is under a third for all the other strata. Copyright , Oxford University Press.
Description:
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the world’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sector’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.
Description:
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the world’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sector’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.
Description:
This study develops a Regional Resilience Monitor (RRM) which will enable the measurement of changes over time in a number of key dimensions for the well-being of regional Australia. Resilience is defined as the capacity of a local community to respond to, and anticipate economic, social and environmental change and to adapt, plan and transform itself for the future. Regional Resilience – in terms of health and well-being, productivity and economic growth, managing risk, and capturing opportunities for sustainable environments and human systems – has been identified as a key strategic priority for Australia, as it has been for a number of other countries. The RRM is made up of six interlocking elements that, together, form a holistic tool and provide a composite measure. These elements are: 1. Economic Health 2. Human Capital 3. Social Well-being 4. Liveability 5. Entrepreneurialism 6. Social Capital and Social Networks The first four elements can be measured using existing data and we identify those data sources. Elements 5 and 6 can be measured using a combination of existing data and, respectively, a newly developed regional entrepreneurship survey and a newly conceived social network analysis. The RRM was developed in, and for, the Latrobe Valley and the wider Gippsland region but can be ‘rolled out’ across regional Victoria as a whole and across regional Australia.
Description:
This study develops a Regional Resilience Monitor (RRM) which will enable the measurement of changes over time in a number of key dimensions for the well-being of regional Australia. Resilience is defined as the capacity of a local community to respond to, and anticipate economic, social and environmental change and to adapt, plan and transform itself for the future. Regional Resilience – in terms of health and well-being, productivity and economic growth, managing risk, and capturing opportunities for sustainable environments and human systems – has been identified as a key strategic priority for Australia, as it has been for a number of other countries. The RRM is made up of six interlocking elements that, together, form a holistic tool and provide a composite measure. These elements are: 1. Economic Health 2. Human Capital 3. Social Well-being 4. Liveability 5. Entrepreneurialism 6. Social Capital and Social Networks The first four elements can be measured using existing data and we identify those data sources. Elements 5 and 6 can be measured using a combination of existing data and, respectively, a newly developed regional entrepreneurship survey and a newly conceived social network analysis. The RRM was developed in, and for, the Latrobe Valley and the wider Gippsland region but can be ‘rolled out’ across regional Victoria as a whole and across regional Australia.
Description:
For decades rural Australia has been discriminated against by industrial policies at home and agricultural protectionism abroad. While agricultural export taxation in poor countries had the opposite impact, recent reforms there mean that that offsetting effect on Australia has diminished. There has also been some re-instrumentation of rich-country farm policies away from trade measures. This paper draws on new evidence to examine whether Australian farmers and rural regions are still adversely affected by farm price-distortive policies abroad, using a global and a national economy-wide model. The results vindicate the continuing push by Australia's rural communities for multilateral agricultural trade liberalization.
Description:
The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
Description:
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.
Description:
The article discusses the study which examines the impact of the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton on the global economy and on the developing countries. The standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model of the global economy is used in the study to provide insights into the effects of governments allowing GM technology adoption in some countries without, and then with cotton trade and subsidy policy reform globally. The researchers conclude that developing country welfare could be enhanced more by allowing GM cotton adoption than by the removal of all cotton subsidies and tariffs. Furthermore, they believe that the study's results support the notion that the gains to developing countries from the Doha Cotton Initiative will be even greater if GM cotton is adopted first.
Description:
This study develops a measurement tool to assess the economic health, human capital, social well-being and liveability of regional locations. The study is guided by developments in the professional literature related to measuring these four dimensions. Information was compiled from existing databases for 72 indicators used to generate four indices: Economic Health, Human Capital, Social Well-being, and Liveability. Index measures are reported for local government authority (LGAs) and Victorian State levels. The four indices provide a new quantitative tool to capture the effects from, and so reflect, economic, social and policy changes impacting across Victoria. Further application of this tool may be provided through periodic data updates over time using data captured on a national scale. The regional focus of the present study is the Latrobe Valley located in the Gippsland region of Victoria. The Latrobe Valley encompasses the LGAs of Baw Baw, Latrobe City and Wellington Shires. In addition, index values are reported for 16 towns located within the three LGAs and we include these findings as Appendix 1. For comparative purposes, the study also reports index values for the Gippsland region (comprising LGAs of Baw-Baw, Bass Coast, East Gippsland, Latrobe City, South Gippsland and Wellington Shire), the State of Victoria, and regional (non-metropolitan areas) using averages. Data were gathered for all 79 Victorian LGAs. The study results provide a measurement framework constructed from a comprehensive application of available databases. The end-product is a significant “tool” that identifies and summates enablers of economic productivity and social and community development. The tool provides evidenced-based measures to inform policy recommendations with regard to strategic intervention options and ensuing impacts on regional sustainability.
Description:
This study develops a measurement tool to assess the economic health, human capital, social well-being and liveability of regional locations. The study is guided by developments in the professional literature related to measuring these four dimensions. Information was compiled from existing databases for 72 indicators used to generate four indices: Economic Health, Human Capital, Social Well-being, and Liveability. Index measures are reported for local government authority (LGAs) and Victorian State levels. The four indices provide a new quantitative tool to capture the effects from, and so reflect, economic, social and policy changes impacting across Victoria. Further application of this tool may be provided through periodic data updates over time using data captured on a national scale. The regional focus of the present study is the Latrobe Valley located in the Gippsland region of Victoria. The Latrobe Valley encompasses the LGAs of Baw Baw, Latrobe City and Wellington Shires. In addition, index values are reported for 16 towns located within the three LGAs and we include these findings as Appendix 1. For comparative purposes, the study also reports index values for the Gippsland region (comprising LGAs of Baw-Baw, Bass Coast, East Gippsland, Latrobe City, South Gippsland and Wellington Shire), the State of Victoria, and regional (non-metropolitan areas) using averages. Data were gathered for all 79 Victorian LGAs. The study results provide a measurement framework constructed from a comprehensive application of available databases. The end-product is a significant “tool” that identifies and summates enablers of economic productivity and social and community development. The tool provides evidenced-based measures to inform policy recommendations with regard to strategic intervention options and ensuing impacts on regional sustainability.
Description:
FOR many developing countries, especially in Africa and Central Asia, cotton is an important cash crop. It is receiving attention of late because four poor cotton-exporting West African countries (the Cotton-4: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) have demanded that cotton subsidy and import tariff removal be part of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha Development Agenda (DDA). Cotton subsidies are mostly provided by governments in high-income countries, and part of the US cotton subsidy programme has been ruled illegal following a WTO dispute settlement case brought by Brazil. Hence some reform can be expected soon, especially if the DDA is to live up to its name of being a development round (Sumner, 2006). This paper seeks to provide estimates of what is at stake in terms of cotton