COVID-19 effects on public finance and SDG priorities in developing countries : comparative evidence from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
- Colombage, Sisira, Barua, Suborna, Nanayakkara, Madurika, Colombage, Udari
- Authors: Colombage, Sisira , Barua, Suborna , Nanayakkara, Madurika , Colombage, Udari
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: European Journal of Development Research Vol. 35, no. 1 (2023), p. 85-111
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- Reviewed:
- Description: The COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented global health crisis, rapidly transferred into a global economic and social crisis. The pandemic has threatened the world’s commitment to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 as governments in developing countries have shifted their priorities from attaining SDGs, to providing urgent financial needs to save lives and prevent recession in hopes for a rapid economic recovery. The rerouting of public funding priorities has undermined the progress and achievement of SDGs. We employed a mixed-method and carried out a comparative study using pre- and post-public financial data of two developing countries in South Asia; Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A threefold analysis was conducted to investigate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in two countries, the impact of the pandemic on external and internal public finance and the effect of the pandemic in shifting the policy priorities from SDGs to economic survival. This study found that both countries are highly vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic and are suffering from the lack of financing from external sources through the private sector as well as an increasing foreign debt. There is mounting pressure on the fiscal balance in both countries. © 2022, The Author(s).
- Authors: Colombage, Sisira , Barua, Suborna , Nanayakkara, Madurika , Colombage, Udari
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: European Journal of Development Research Vol. 35, no. 1 (2023), p. 85-111
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented global health crisis, rapidly transferred into a global economic and social crisis. The pandemic has threatened the world’s commitment to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 as governments in developing countries have shifted their priorities from attaining SDGs, to providing urgent financial needs to save lives and prevent recession in hopes for a rapid economic recovery. The rerouting of public funding priorities has undermined the progress and achievement of SDGs. We employed a mixed-method and carried out a comparative study using pre- and post-public financial data of two developing countries in South Asia; Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A threefold analysis was conducted to investigate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in two countries, the impact of the pandemic on external and internal public finance and the effect of the pandemic in shifting the policy priorities from SDGs to economic survival. This study found that both countries are highly vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic and are suffering from the lack of financing from external sources through the private sector as well as an increasing foreign debt. There is mounting pressure on the fiscal balance in both countries. © 2022, The Author(s).
Financial development and economic growth : Evidence from a panel study on South Asian countries
- Hasan Rana, Rezwanul, Barua, Suborna
- Authors: Hasan Rana, Rezwanul , Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2015
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Asian Economic and Financial Review Vol. 5, no. 10 (2015), p. 1159-1173
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- Reviewed:
- Description: The paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth using panel data for five emerging South Asian countries - Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The heterogeneous panel data is collected from the World Bank for the period of 1974 to 2012. Economic Growth is represented by GDP growth rate, and for Financial Development, five major variables have been used: (i) Domestic Credit Provided by Financial Sector, (ii) Total Debt Services, (iii) Gross Domestic Savings, (iv) Broad Money, and (v) Trade Balance. Fixed Effect Panel regression model has been used and Time Fixed Effect, Cross Sectional Dependence, Heteroskedasticity, Serial Correlation and Cointegration have been tested for model fitness. The results indicate that growth of total debt services and domestic savings have significant impact on economic development of these countries. Interestingly, broad money, trade balance and domestic credit have no considerable influence on fostering economic growth which is generally unexpected. The paper places several arguments to explain these results. The study appears to be a first hand examination on the South Asian countries and adds new insight into the existing literature. The findings and discussions presented would be valuable in designing long term financial and macroeconomic policies by these countries.
- Authors: Hasan Rana, Rezwanul , Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2015
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Asian Economic and Financial Review Vol. 5, no. 10 (2015), p. 1159-1173
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth using panel data for five emerging South Asian countries - Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The heterogeneous panel data is collected from the World Bank for the period of 1974 to 2012. Economic Growth is represented by GDP growth rate, and for Financial Development, five major variables have been used: (i) Domestic Credit Provided by Financial Sector, (ii) Total Debt Services, (iii) Gross Domestic Savings, (iv) Broad Money, and (v) Trade Balance. Fixed Effect Panel regression model has been used and Time Fixed Effect, Cross Sectional Dependence, Heteroskedasticity, Serial Correlation and Cointegration have been tested for model fitness. The results indicate that growth of total debt services and domestic savings have significant impact on economic development of these countries. Interestingly, broad money, trade balance and domestic credit have no considerable influence on fostering economic growth which is generally unexpected. The paper places several arguments to explain these results. The study appears to be a first hand examination on the South Asian countries and adds new insight into the existing literature. The findings and discussions presented would be valuable in designing long term financial and macroeconomic policies by these countries.
The impacts of climate change on trade and foreign direct investment flows
- Authors: Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: A growing body of climate economics research suggests that climate change affects production, prices, distribution structures, investments and national income. Studies further describe international trade and climate related investments as key activities in climate impact mitigation and adaptation. However, despite its increasing relevance, the empirical link between climate change and international trade and investment remains largely unexplored. This thesis investigates the climate change impacts on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows using static and dynamic panel estimations covering 102 countries. The modelling uses temperature and precipitation variability to separately evaluate changes in international trade from 1962 to 2014, and in FDI inflows from 1995 to 2014. The trade impacts estimations consider exports of total merchandise, agriculture and six agricultural sectors; while controlling for income, comparative advantage, productivity, domestic and trade policies, and climate zones. The FDI impacts modelling evaluates total and sectoral inflows, while controlling for income, market size, infrastructure, openness, financial development, the global financial crisis and climate zones. Results show that climate change significantly affects both exports and FDI inflows. In particular, temperature affects merchandise exports, negatively at the global and developing country level, and positively in high-income countries. Agricultural exports are negatively affected by temperature. At the sectoral level, oil-seeds and dairy are mostly affected. Precipitation effects are limited and mostly negative for agriculture. The FDI world aggregate flows respond mostly positively to both temperature and precipitation, and static estimations indicate a FDI positive response in developing countries. Furthermore, FDI sectoral estimations indicate a differentiated response. Findings could inform the formulation of trade and investment policies, at the national and global level, in consideration to the differential impacts of climate change across sectors, regions and economic status. Furthermore, these estimates could be used in projections considering climate change as a determinant of trade and investment flows.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
- Authors: Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: A growing body of climate economics research suggests that climate change affects production, prices, distribution structures, investments and national income. Studies further describe international trade and climate related investments as key activities in climate impact mitigation and adaptation. However, despite its increasing relevance, the empirical link between climate change and international trade and investment remains largely unexplored. This thesis investigates the climate change impacts on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows using static and dynamic panel estimations covering 102 countries. The modelling uses temperature and precipitation variability to separately evaluate changes in international trade from 1962 to 2014, and in FDI inflows from 1995 to 2014. The trade impacts estimations consider exports of total merchandise, agriculture and six agricultural sectors; while controlling for income, comparative advantage, productivity, domestic and trade policies, and climate zones. The FDI impacts modelling evaluates total and sectoral inflows, while controlling for income, market size, infrastructure, openness, financial development, the global financial crisis and climate zones. Results show that climate change significantly affects both exports and FDI inflows. In particular, temperature affects merchandise exports, negatively at the global and developing country level, and positively in high-income countries. Agricultural exports are negatively affected by temperature. At the sectoral level, oil-seeds and dairy are mostly affected. Precipitation effects are limited and mostly negative for agriculture. The FDI world aggregate flows respond mostly positively to both temperature and precipitation, and static estimations indicate a FDI positive response in developing countries. Furthermore, FDI sectoral estimations indicate a differentiated response. Findings could inform the formulation of trade and investment policies, at the national and global level, in consideration to the differential impacts of climate change across sectors, regions and economic status. Furthermore, these estimates could be used in projections considering climate change as a determinant of trade and investment flows.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
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