Learning to be drier in the southern Murray-Darling Basin : Setting the scene for this research volume
- Golding, Barry, Campbell, Coral
- Authors: Golding, Barry , Campbell, Coral
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 423-450
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: [Australian history] is like a giant experiment in ecological crisis and management, sometimes a horrifying concentration of environmental damage and cultural loss; sometimes a heartening parable of hope and learning. (Griffiths 2003:16, cited in Mackinnon 2007: 73).
- Description: 2003007971
- Authors: Golding, Barry , Campbell, Coral
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 423-450
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: [Australian history] is like a giant experiment in ecological crisis and management, sometimes a horrifying concentration of environmental damage and cultural loss; sometimes a heartening parable of hope and learning. (Griffiths 2003:16, cited in Mackinnon 2007: 73).
- Description: 2003007971
Reconstruction of tropical cyclone and depression proxies for the South Pacific since the 1850s
- Yeasmin, Alea, Chand, Savin, Sultanova, Nargiz
- Authors: Yeasmin, Alea , Chand, Savin , Sultanova, Nargiz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Weather and Climate Extremes Vol. 39, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Southwest Pacific nations are highly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events, particularly those associated with synoptic-scale systems such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and depressions (TDs). This study utilises the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) method to reconstruct historical records of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific basin using state-of-the-art NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product. Extensive statistical assessments of these reconstructions are carried out using observational records for the satellite period (i.e., 1979–2014) as ‘ground-truths’. Results show that 20CR-derived TCs and TDs resemble several key characteristics of the observational records, including spatial distribution of genesis locations and track shapes. This gives us confidence that the 20CR-derived long-term records of TCs and TDs can serve as an effective tool for examining historical changes in various characteristics of TCs and TDs, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. © 2022
- Authors: Yeasmin, Alea , Chand, Savin , Sultanova, Nargiz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Weather and Climate Extremes Vol. 39, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Southwest Pacific nations are highly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events, particularly those associated with synoptic-scale systems such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and depressions (TDs). This study utilises the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) method to reconstruct historical records of both TCs and TDs for the South Pacific basin using state-of-the-art NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product. Extensive statistical assessments of these reconstructions are carried out using observational records for the satellite period (i.e., 1979–2014) as ‘ground-truths’. Results show that 20CR-derived TCs and TDs resemble several key characteristics of the observational records, including spatial distribution of genesis locations and track shapes. This gives us confidence that the 20CR-derived long-term records of TCs and TDs can serve as an effective tool for examining historical changes in various characteristics of TCs and TDs, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. © 2022
Wicked learning : Reflecting on Learning to be drier
- Golding, Barry, Brown, Michael, Foley, Annette, Smith, Erica, Campbell, Coral, Schulz, Christine, Angwin, Jennifer, Grace, Lauri
- Authors: Golding, Barry , Brown, Michael , Foley, Annette , Smith, Erica , Campbell, Coral , Schulz, Christine , Angwin, Jennifer , Grace, Lauri
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 544-566
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: In this final, collaborative paper in the Learning to be drier edition, we reflect on and draw together some of the key threads from the diverse narratives in our four site papers from across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Our paper title, Wicked learning, draws on a recent body literature (Rittel & Webber 1973) about messy or 'wicked problems' as characterised by Dietz and Stern (1998). It picks up on our identification of the difficulty and enormity of the learning challenges being faced by communities, associated, at best, with a decade of record dry years (drought) and severely over-committed rivers. At worst, drought is occurring in combination with and as a precursor to recent, progressive drying of the Basin associated with climate change. Our research is suggestive of a need for much more learning across all segments of the adult community about '... the big picture, including the interrelationships among the full range of causal factors ...' (Australian Public Service Commission, APSC 2007: 1) underlying the presenting problem of drying. We conclude that solutions to the messy or wicked problem of drying in an interconnected Basin will lie in the social domain. This will include building a wider knowledge and acceptance of the problems and likely future risks across the Basin including all parts of communities. The problem of drying as well as its causes and solutions are multidimensional, and will involve comprehensive learning about all five key characteristics of other 'wicked' policy problems identified in previous research in the environmental arena. The narratives that we have heard identify the extreme difficulty in all four sites of rational and learned responses to being drier as the problem has unfolded. All narratives about being drier that we have heard involve a recognition of a combination of the five characteristics common to wicked problems: multidimensionality, scientific uncertainty, value conflict and uncertainty, mistrust as well as urgency. All narratives identify the importance of social learning: to be productive, to be efficient, to survive, to live with uncertainty, to be sustainable and to share. Combating the extent and effects of drying, causality aside, will require new forms of learning through new community, social and learning spaces, apart from and in addition to new technological and scientific learning.
- Description: 2003007975
- Authors: Golding, Barry , Brown, Michael , Foley, Annette , Smith, Erica , Campbell, Coral , Schulz, Christine , Angwin, Jennifer , Grace, Lauri
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 544-566
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: In this final, collaborative paper in the Learning to be drier edition, we reflect on and draw together some of the key threads from the diverse narratives in our four site papers from across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Our paper title, Wicked learning, draws on a recent body literature (Rittel & Webber 1973) about messy or 'wicked problems' as characterised by Dietz and Stern (1998). It picks up on our identification of the difficulty and enormity of the learning challenges being faced by communities, associated, at best, with a decade of record dry years (drought) and severely over-committed rivers. At worst, drought is occurring in combination with and as a precursor to recent, progressive drying of the Basin associated with climate change. Our research is suggestive of a need for much more learning across all segments of the adult community about '... the big picture, including the interrelationships among the full range of causal factors ...' (Australian Public Service Commission, APSC 2007: 1) underlying the presenting problem of drying. We conclude that solutions to the messy or wicked problem of drying in an interconnected Basin will lie in the social domain. This will include building a wider knowledge and acceptance of the problems and likely future risks across the Basin including all parts of communities. The problem of drying as well as its causes and solutions are multidimensional, and will involve comprehensive learning about all five key characteristics of other 'wicked' policy problems identified in previous research in the environmental arena. The narratives that we have heard identify the extreme difficulty in all four sites of rational and learned responses to being drier as the problem has unfolded. All narratives about being drier that we have heard involve a recognition of a combination of the five characteristics common to wicked problems: multidimensionality, scientific uncertainty, value conflict and uncertainty, mistrust as well as urgency. All narratives identify the importance of social learning: to be productive, to be efficient, to survive, to live with uncertainty, to be sustainable and to share. Combating the extent and effects of drying, causality aside, will require new forms of learning through new community, social and learning spaces, apart from and in addition to new technological and scientific learning.
- Description: 2003007975
Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models
- Bell, Samuel, Chand, Savin, Tory, Kevin, Dowdy, Andrew, Turville, Christopher, Ye, Harvey
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Tory, Kevin , Dowdy, Andrew , Turville, Christopher , Ye, Harvey
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Climate Dynamics Vol. 52, no. 9-10 (2019), p. 6065-6079
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970–2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070–2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (~ 1–3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (~ 15–42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH.
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Tory, Kevin , Dowdy, Andrew , Turville, Christopher , Ye, Harvey
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Climate Dynamics Vol. 52, no. 9-10 (2019), p. 6065-6079
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970–2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070–2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (~ 1–3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (~ 15–42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH.
Learning to be drier in dryland country
- Smith, Erica, Campbell, Coral
- Authors: Smith, Erica , Campbell, Coral
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 520-543
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: This research project, part of a much larger study, considered how people in regional communities learnt to deal with the impact of reduced water availability as a result of drought or climate change. The communities in the Mallee-Wimmera region of Victoria, Australia, were the focus of this study and a range of local people from different sectors of the communities were involved in interviews, which became our main data source. We recognise the limitation that not all viewpoints could possibly be accessed in the participant selection process. The resultant data indicated that significant changes were being made to local practices as a result of the learning taking place and that there were a range of processes which enabled adult learning across the communities.
- Description: 2003007933
- Authors: Smith, Erica , Campbell, Coral
- Date: 2009
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Australian Journal of Adult Learning Vol. 49, no. 3 (2009), p. 520-543
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: This research project, part of a much larger study, considered how people in regional communities learnt to deal with the impact of reduced water availability as a result of drought or climate change. The communities in the Mallee-Wimmera region of Victoria, Australia, were the focus of this study and a range of local people from different sectors of the communities were involved in interviews, which became our main data source. We recognise the limitation that not all viewpoints could possibly be accessed in the participant selection process. The resultant data indicated that significant changes were being made to local practices as a result of the learning taking place and that there were a range of processes which enabled adult learning across the communities.
- Description: 2003007933
Photosynthetic responses of Invasive Acacia mangium and co-existing native heath forest species to elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations
- Ibrahim, Mohamad, Sukri, Rahayu, Tennakoon, Kushan, Le, Quang-Vuong, Metali, Faizah
- Authors: Ibrahim, Mohamad , Sukri, Rahayu , Tennakoon, Kushan , Le, Quang-Vuong , Metali, Faizah
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Sustainable Forestry Vol. 40, no. 6 (2021), p. 573-593
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The impacts of climate change, in particular via elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, cause differential photosynthetic responses between native and invasive alien plants, often resulting in varying magnitudes of plant growth and productivity. This study investigated variations in photosynthetic responses of an invasive alien Acacia species and two successional groups of tropical heath forest species: early secondary (Buchanania arborescens and Dillenia suffruticosa) and secondary (Calophyllum inophyllum and Ploiarium alternifolium) groups at elevated temperature (25 to 30°C) and CO2 levels (400 to 700 ppm). Invasive A.mangium appears better adapted to higher temperature and CO2. High temperature improved CO2 assimilation of A.mangium compared to heath species, which was attributed to increased transpiration rate and stomatal conductance but decreased water-use efficiency. Photosynthetic responses showed no differences in early secondary species at elevated temperature and CO2 but invasive A.mangium and P.alternifolium were stimulated by elevated CO2. The greater maximum net photosynthesis of A.mangium coincided with lower light compensation point and electron transport rate for RuBP regeneration, to a certain extent. Findings provide insights into possible underlying ecophysiological mechanisms contributing to the invasion success of Acacias in degraded tropical heath forests in response to future climate change. © 2020 Taylor & Francis.
- Authors: Ibrahim, Mohamad , Sukri, Rahayu , Tennakoon, Kushan , Le, Quang-Vuong , Metali, Faizah
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Sustainable Forestry Vol. 40, no. 6 (2021), p. 573-593
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The impacts of climate change, in particular via elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, cause differential photosynthetic responses between native and invasive alien plants, often resulting in varying magnitudes of plant growth and productivity. This study investigated variations in photosynthetic responses of an invasive alien Acacia species and two successional groups of tropical heath forest species: early secondary (Buchanania arborescens and Dillenia suffruticosa) and secondary (Calophyllum inophyllum and Ploiarium alternifolium) groups at elevated temperature (25 to 30°C) and CO2 levels (400 to 700 ppm). Invasive A.mangium appears better adapted to higher temperature and CO2. High temperature improved CO2 assimilation of A.mangium compared to heath species, which was attributed to increased transpiration rate and stomatal conductance but decreased water-use efficiency. Photosynthetic responses showed no differences in early secondary species at elevated temperature and CO2 but invasive A.mangium and P.alternifolium were stimulated by elevated CO2. The greater maximum net photosynthesis of A.mangium coincided with lower light compensation point and electron transport rate for RuBP regeneration, to a certain extent. Findings provide insights into possible underlying ecophysiological mechanisms contributing to the invasion success of Acacias in degraded tropical heath forests in response to future climate change. © 2020 Taylor & Francis.
Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine biodiversity in a global marine hotspot
- Pecl, Gretta, Ogier, Emily, Jennings, Sarah, van Putten, Ingrid, Crawford, Christine, Fogarty, Hannah, Frusher, Stewart, Hobday, Alistair, Keane, John, Lee, Emma, MacLeod, Catriona, Mundy, Craig, Stuart-Smith, Jemima, Tracey, Sean
- Authors: Pecl, Gretta , Ogier, Emily , Jennings, Sarah , van Putten, Ingrid , Crawford, Christine , Fogarty, Hannah , Frusher, Stewart , Hobday, Alistair , Keane, John , Lee, Emma , MacLeod, Catriona , Mundy, Craig , Stuart-Smith, Jemima , Tracey, Sean
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Ambio Vol. 48, no. 12 (2019), p. 1498-1515
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies. © 2019, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
- Authors: Pecl, Gretta , Ogier, Emily , Jennings, Sarah , van Putten, Ingrid , Crawford, Christine , Fogarty, Hannah , Frusher, Stewart , Hobday, Alistair , Keane, John , Lee, Emma , MacLeod, Catriona , Mundy, Craig , Stuart-Smith, Jemima , Tracey, Sean
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Ambio Vol. 48, no. 12 (2019), p. 1498-1515
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies. © 2019, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region : Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
- Chand, Savin, Dowdy, Andrew, Ramsay, Hamish, Walsh, Kevin, Tory, Kevin, Power, Scott, Bell, Samuel, Lavender, Sally, Ye, Hua, Kuleshov, Yuri
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
Past and future ecosystem change in the coastal zone
- Authors: Gell, Peter
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2nd International Conference on Tropical and Coastal Region Eco Development 2016, ICTCRED 2016; Bali, Indonesia; 25th-27th October 2016; published in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Vol. 55, p. 1-8
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The coastal zone is in a constant state of flux. Long term records of change attest to high amplitude sea level changes. Relative stability though the Late Holocene has allowed for the evolution of barrier dune systems, estuaries and coastal lakes with associated plant and faunal associations. This evolution has been interspersed with changes in the balance between climate driven changes in outflow from catchments. These interactions have been considerably disturbed through the impacts of industrialised people who have diverted and consumed water and invested in infrastructure that has impacted on river flows and the tidal prism in estuaries. This has impacted their provisioning services to humans. It has also impacted their regulating services in that development along the coastline has impacted on the resilience of the littoral zone to absorb natural climate extremes. Looking from the past we can see the pathway to the future and more easily recognise the steps needed to avoid further coastal degradation. This will increasingly need to accommodate the impacts of future climate trends, increased climate extremes and rising seas. Coastal societies would do well to identify their long term pathway to adaptation to the challenges that lie ahead and plan to invest accordingly. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
- Description: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
- Authors: Gell, Peter
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2nd International Conference on Tropical and Coastal Region Eco Development 2016, ICTCRED 2016; Bali, Indonesia; 25th-27th October 2016; published in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Vol. 55, p. 1-8
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The coastal zone is in a constant state of flux. Long term records of change attest to high amplitude sea level changes. Relative stability though the Late Holocene has allowed for the evolution of barrier dune systems, estuaries and coastal lakes with associated plant and faunal associations. This evolution has been interspersed with changes in the balance between climate driven changes in outflow from catchments. These interactions have been considerably disturbed through the impacts of industrialised people who have diverted and consumed water and invested in infrastructure that has impacted on river flows and the tidal prism in estuaries. This has impacted their provisioning services to humans. It has also impacted their regulating services in that development along the coastline has impacted on the resilience of the littoral zone to absorb natural climate extremes. Looking from the past we can see the pathway to the future and more easily recognise the steps needed to avoid further coastal degradation. This will increasingly need to accommodate the impacts of future climate trends, increased climate extremes and rising seas. Coastal societies would do well to identify their long term pathway to adaptation to the challenges that lie ahead and plan to invest accordingly. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
- Description: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Phenological studies in Australia: Potential application in historical and future climate analysis
- Keatley, Marie, Fletcher, Tim, Hudson, Irene, Ades, Peter
- Authors: Keatley, Marie , Fletcher, Tim , Hudson, Irene , Ades, Peter
- Date: 2002
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International Journal of Climatology Vol. 22, no. 14 (Nov 2002), p. 1769-1780
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Phenological observations of eucalypts (Myrtaceae) were undertaken in four Australian states (New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia) from the late 1920s until the early 1980s, by the respective State Forest Commissions. Unfortunately, few records have survived. For Victoria, surviving records encompass 42 forest districts, covering from less than 2 years to 42 years, and approximately 50 species. This paper concentrates on the flowering of four competing species (Eucalyptus leucoxylon, E. microcarpa, E. polyanthemos, and E. tricarpa) over 23 years (1940-62) from Maryborough, Victoria, recorded on a monthly basis by one observer over the period. This study represents one of the first attempts to utilize Australian phenological data to detect responses to climate change. There were no significant trends (P = 0.05) over time in the mean flowering commencement date. Forward stepwise regression found a significant relationship between temperature and flowering commencement in two species (E. leucoxylon: R-2 = 0.42, P < 0.01; E. polyanthemos: R-2 = 0.47, P = 0.02). Rainfall also had a significant influence on flowering commencement in E. tricarpa (R-2 = 0.60, P < 0.01), E. leucoxylon (R-2 = 0.43, P = 0.02) and E. polyanthemos (R-2 = 0.24, P < 0.01). The combination of temperature and rainfall (with temperature exerting the greatest influence), however, was significant for all species and had the most explanatory power (ranging from R-2 = 0.74 to 0.85, P < 0.01). Overall, in response to predicted increases in temperature and summer rainfall, E. leucoxylon and E. tricarpa would commence flowering later. In E. polyanthemos and E. microcarpa, increased temperature and rainfall will result in an earlier onset of flowering. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
- Description: 2003000171
- Authors: Keatley, Marie , Fletcher, Tim , Hudson, Irene , Ades, Peter
- Date: 2002
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International Journal of Climatology Vol. 22, no. 14 (Nov 2002), p. 1769-1780
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Phenological observations of eucalypts (Myrtaceae) were undertaken in four Australian states (New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia) from the late 1920s until the early 1980s, by the respective State Forest Commissions. Unfortunately, few records have survived. For Victoria, surviving records encompass 42 forest districts, covering from less than 2 years to 42 years, and approximately 50 species. This paper concentrates on the flowering of four competing species (Eucalyptus leucoxylon, E. microcarpa, E. polyanthemos, and E. tricarpa) over 23 years (1940-62) from Maryborough, Victoria, recorded on a monthly basis by one observer over the period. This study represents one of the first attempts to utilize Australian phenological data to detect responses to climate change. There were no significant trends (P = 0.05) over time in the mean flowering commencement date. Forward stepwise regression found a significant relationship between temperature and flowering commencement in two species (E. leucoxylon: R-2 = 0.42, P < 0.01; E. polyanthemos: R-2 = 0.47, P = 0.02). Rainfall also had a significant influence on flowering commencement in E. tricarpa (R-2 = 0.60, P < 0.01), E. leucoxylon (R-2 = 0.43, P = 0.02) and E. polyanthemos (R-2 = 0.24, P < 0.01). The combination of temperature and rainfall (with temperature exerting the greatest influence), however, was significant for all species and had the most explanatory power (ranging from R-2 = 0.74 to 0.85, P < 0.01). Overall, in response to predicted increases in temperature and summer rainfall, E. leucoxylon and E. tricarpa would commence flowering later. In E. polyanthemos and E. microcarpa, increased temperature and rainfall will result in an earlier onset of flowering. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
- Description: 2003000171
Marine ecosystem assessment for the Southern Ocean : Birds and marine mammals in a changing climate
- Bestley, Sophie, Ropert-Coudert, Yan, Bengtson Nash, Susan, Brooks, Cassandra, Cotté, Cedric, Dewar, Meagan, Friedlaender, Ari, Jackson, Jennifer, Labrousse, Sara, Lowther, Andrew, McMahon, Clive, Phillips, Richard, Pistorius, Pierre, Puskic, Peter, Reis, Ana, Reisinger, Ryan, Santos, Mercedes, Tarszisz, Esther, Tixier, Paul, Trathan, Philip, Wege, Mia, Wienecke, Barbara
- Authors: Bestley, Sophie , Ropert-Coudert, Yan , Bengtson Nash, Susan , Brooks, Cassandra , Cotté, Cedric , Dewar, Meagan , Friedlaender, Ari , Jackson, Jennifer , Labrousse, Sara , Lowther, Andrew , McMahon, Clive , Phillips, Richard , Pistorius, Pierre , Puskic, Peter , Reis, Ana , Reisinger, Ryan , Santos, Mercedes , Tarszisz, Esther , Tixier, Paul , Trathan, Philip , Wege, Mia , Wienecke, Barbara
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Vol. 8, no. (2020), p. 1-39
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The massive number of seabirds (penguins and procellariiformes) and marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) – referred to here as top predators – is one of the most iconic components of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. They play an important role as highly mobile consumers, structuring and connecting pelagic marine food webs and are widely studied relative to other taxa. Many birds and mammals establish dense breeding colonies or use haul-out sites, making them relatively easy to study. Cetaceans, however, spend their lives at sea and thus aspects of their life cycle are more complicated to monitor and study. Nevertheless, they all feed at sea and their reproductive success depends on the food availability in the marine environment, hence they are considered useful indicators of the state of the marine resources. In general, top predators have large body sizes that allow for instrumentation with miniature data-recording or transmitting devices to monitor their activities at sea. Development of scientific techniques to study reproduction and foraging of top predators has led to substantial scientific literature on their population trends, key biological parameters, migratory patterns, foraging and feeding ecology, and linkages with atmospheric or oceanographic dynamics, for a number of species and regions. We briefly summarize the vast literature on Southern Ocean top predators, focusing on the most recent syntheses. We also provide an overview on the key current and emerging pressures faced by these animals as a result of both natural and human causes. We recognize the overarching impact that environmental changes driven by climate change have on the ecology of these species. We also evaluate direct and indirect interactions between marine predators and other factors such as disease, pollution, land disturbance and the increasing pressure from global fisheries in the Southern Ocean. Where possible we consider the data availability for assessing the status and trends for each of these components, their capacity for resilience or recovery, effectiveness of management responses, risk likelihood of key impacts and future outlook. © Copyright © 2020 Bestley, Ropert-Coudert, Bengtson Nash, Brooks, Cotté, Dewar, Friedlaender, Jackson, Labrousse, Lowther, McMahon, Phillips, Pistorius, Puskic, Reis, Reisinger, Santos, Tarszisz, Tixier, Trathan, Wege and Wienecke.
- Authors: Bestley, Sophie , Ropert-Coudert, Yan , Bengtson Nash, Susan , Brooks, Cassandra , Cotté, Cedric , Dewar, Meagan , Friedlaender, Ari , Jackson, Jennifer , Labrousse, Sara , Lowther, Andrew , McMahon, Clive , Phillips, Richard , Pistorius, Pierre , Puskic, Peter , Reis, Ana , Reisinger, Ryan , Santos, Mercedes , Tarszisz, Esther , Tixier, Paul , Trathan, Philip , Wege, Mia , Wienecke, Barbara
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Vol. 8, no. (2020), p. 1-39
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The massive number of seabirds (penguins and procellariiformes) and marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) – referred to here as top predators – is one of the most iconic components of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. They play an important role as highly mobile consumers, structuring and connecting pelagic marine food webs and are widely studied relative to other taxa. Many birds and mammals establish dense breeding colonies or use haul-out sites, making them relatively easy to study. Cetaceans, however, spend their lives at sea and thus aspects of their life cycle are more complicated to monitor and study. Nevertheless, they all feed at sea and their reproductive success depends on the food availability in the marine environment, hence they are considered useful indicators of the state of the marine resources. In general, top predators have large body sizes that allow for instrumentation with miniature data-recording or transmitting devices to monitor their activities at sea. Development of scientific techniques to study reproduction and foraging of top predators has led to substantial scientific literature on their population trends, key biological parameters, migratory patterns, foraging and feeding ecology, and linkages with atmospheric or oceanographic dynamics, for a number of species and regions. We briefly summarize the vast literature on Southern Ocean top predators, focusing on the most recent syntheses. We also provide an overview on the key current and emerging pressures faced by these animals as a result of both natural and human causes. We recognize the overarching impact that environmental changes driven by climate change have on the ecology of these species. We also evaluate direct and indirect interactions between marine predators and other factors such as disease, pollution, land disturbance and the increasing pressure from global fisheries in the Southern Ocean. Where possible we consider the data availability for assessing the status and trends for each of these components, their capacity for resilience or recovery, effectiveness of management responses, risk likelihood of key impacts and future outlook. © Copyright © 2020 Bestley, Ropert-Coudert, Bengtson Nash, Brooks, Cotté, Dewar, Friedlaender, Jackson, Labrousse, Lowther, McMahon, Phillips, Pistorius, Puskic, Reis, Reisinger, Santos, Tarszisz, Tixier, Trathan, Wege and Wienecke.
A century-scale, human-induced ecohydrological evolution of wetlands of two large river basins in Australia (Murray) and China (Yangtze)
- Kattel, Giri, Dong, Xuhui, Yang, Xiangdong
- Authors: Kattel, Giri , Dong, Xuhui , Yang, Xiangdong
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, no. 6 (2016), p. 2151-2168
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Recently, the provision of food and water resources of two of the world's largest river basins, the Murray and the Yangtze, has been significantly altered through widespread landscape modification. Long-term sedimentary archives, dating back for some centuries from wetlands of these river basins, reveal that rapid, basin-wide development has reduced the resilience of biological communities, resulting in considerable decline in ecosystem services, including water quality. Large-scale human disturbance to river systems, due to river regulation during the mid-20th century, has transformed the hydrology of rivers and wetlands, causing widespread modification of aquatic biological communities. Changes to cladoceran zooplankton (water fleas) were used to assess the historical hydrology and ecology of three Murray and Yangtze river wetlands over the past century. Subfossil assemblages of cladocerans retrieved from sediment cores (94, 45, and 65 cm) of three wetlands: Kings Billabong (Murray), Zhangdu, and Liangzi lakes (Yangtze), showed strong responses to hydrological changes in the river after the mid-20th century. In particular, river regulation caused by construction of dams and weirs together with river channel modifications, has led to significant hydrological alterations. These hydrological disturbances were either (1) a prolonged inundation of wetlands or (2) reduced river flow, both of which caused variability in wetland depth. Inevitably, these phenomena have subsequently transformed the natural wetland habitats, leading to a switch in cladoceran assemblages to species preferring poor water quality, and in some cases to eutrophication. The quantitative and qualitative decline of wetland water conditions is indicative of reduced ecosystem services, and requires effective restoration measures for both river basins which have been impacted by recent socioeconomic development and climate change. © 2016 Author(s).
- Authors: Kattel, Giri , Dong, Xuhui , Yang, Xiangdong
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, no. 6 (2016), p. 2151-2168
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Recently, the provision of food and water resources of two of the world's largest river basins, the Murray and the Yangtze, has been significantly altered through widespread landscape modification. Long-term sedimentary archives, dating back for some centuries from wetlands of these river basins, reveal that rapid, basin-wide development has reduced the resilience of biological communities, resulting in considerable decline in ecosystem services, including water quality. Large-scale human disturbance to river systems, due to river regulation during the mid-20th century, has transformed the hydrology of rivers and wetlands, causing widespread modification of aquatic biological communities. Changes to cladoceran zooplankton (water fleas) were used to assess the historical hydrology and ecology of three Murray and Yangtze river wetlands over the past century. Subfossil assemblages of cladocerans retrieved from sediment cores (94, 45, and 65 cm) of three wetlands: Kings Billabong (Murray), Zhangdu, and Liangzi lakes (Yangtze), showed strong responses to hydrological changes in the river after the mid-20th century. In particular, river regulation caused by construction of dams and weirs together with river channel modifications, has led to significant hydrological alterations. These hydrological disturbances were either (1) a prolonged inundation of wetlands or (2) reduced river flow, both of which caused variability in wetland depth. Inevitably, these phenomena have subsequently transformed the natural wetland habitats, leading to a switch in cladoceran assemblages to species preferring poor water quality, and in some cases to eutrophication. The quantitative and qualitative decline of wetland water conditions is indicative of reduced ecosystem services, and requires effective restoration measures for both river basins which have been impacted by recent socioeconomic development and climate change. © 2016 Author(s).
Happy feet in a hostile world? The future of penguins depends on proactive management of current and expected threats
- Ropert-Coudert, Yan, Chiaradia, Andre, Ainley, David, Barbosa, Andres, Boersma, Dee, Brasso, Rebecka, Dewar, Meagan, Ellenberg, Ursula, García-Borboroglu, Pablo, Emmerson, Loulse, Hickcox, Rachel, Jenouvrier, Stephanie, Kato, Akiko, McIntosh, Rebecca, Lewis, Phoebe, Ramírez, Francisco, Ruoppolo, Valeria, Ryan, Peter, Seddon, Philip, Sherley, Richard, Vanstreels, Ralph, Waller, Lauren, Woehler, Eric, Trathan, Phil
- Authors: Ropert-Coudert, Yan , Chiaradia, Andre , Ainley, David , Barbosa, Andres , Boersma, Dee , Brasso, Rebecka , Dewar, Meagan , Ellenberg, Ursula , García-Borboroglu, Pablo , Emmerson, Loulse , Hickcox, Rachel , Jenouvrier, Stephanie , Kato, Akiko , McIntosh, Rebecca , Lewis, Phoebe , Ramírez, Francisco , Ruoppolo, Valeria , Ryan, Peter , Seddon, Philip , Sherley, Richard , Vanstreels, Ralph , Waller, Lauren , Woehler, Eric , Trathan, Phil
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 6, no. May (2019), p. 1-23
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Penguins face a wide range of threats. Most observed population changes have been negative and have happened over the last 60 years. Today, populations of 11 penguin species are decreasing. Here we present a review that synthesizes details of threats faced by the world's 18 species of penguins. We discuss alterations to their environment at both breeding sites on land and at sea where they forage. The major drivers of change appear to be climate, and food web alterations by marine fisheries. In addition, we also consider other critical and/or emerging threats, namely human disturbance near nesting sites, pollution due to oil, plastics and chemicals such as mercury and persistent organic compounds. Finally, we assess the importance of emerging pathogens and diseases on the health of penguins. We suggest that in the context of climate change, habitat degradation, introduced exotic species and resource competition with fisheries, successful conservation outcomes will require new and unprecedented levels of science and advocacy. Successful conservation stories of penguin species across their geographical range have occurred where there has been concerted effort across local, national and international boundaries to implement effective conservation planning.
- Authors: Ropert-Coudert, Yan , Chiaradia, Andre , Ainley, David , Barbosa, Andres , Boersma, Dee , Brasso, Rebecka , Dewar, Meagan , Ellenberg, Ursula , García-Borboroglu, Pablo , Emmerson, Loulse , Hickcox, Rachel , Jenouvrier, Stephanie , Kato, Akiko , McIntosh, Rebecca , Lewis, Phoebe , Ramírez, Francisco , Ruoppolo, Valeria , Ryan, Peter , Seddon, Philip , Sherley, Richard , Vanstreels, Ralph , Waller, Lauren , Woehler, Eric , Trathan, Phil
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 6, no. May (2019), p. 1-23
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Penguins face a wide range of threats. Most observed population changes have been negative and have happened over the last 60 years. Today, populations of 11 penguin species are decreasing. Here we present a review that synthesizes details of threats faced by the world's 18 species of penguins. We discuss alterations to their environment at both breeding sites on land and at sea where they forage. The major drivers of change appear to be climate, and food web alterations by marine fisheries. In addition, we also consider other critical and/or emerging threats, namely human disturbance near nesting sites, pollution due to oil, plastics and chemicals such as mercury and persistent organic compounds. Finally, we assess the importance of emerging pathogens and diseases on the health of penguins. We suggest that in the context of climate change, habitat degradation, introduced exotic species and resource competition with fisheries, successful conservation outcomes will require new and unprecedented levels of science and advocacy. Successful conservation stories of penguin species across their geographical range have occurred where there has been concerted effort across local, national and international boundaries to implement effective conservation planning.
- Wilson, Joab, Bekessy, Sarah, Parris, Kirsten, Gordon, Ascelin, Heard, Geoffrey, Wintle, Brendan
- Authors: Wilson, Joab , Bekessy, Sarah , Parris, Kirsten , Gordon, Ascelin , Heard, Geoffrey , Wintle, Brendan
- Date: 2012
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Austral Ecology Vol.38, no. 1 (2012), p.11-22
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Climate change and urbanization are among the most serious threats to amphibians, although little is known about their combined effects. We used a predictive spatial habitat suitability model to explore the potential impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis) on the urban-fringe of Melbourne, Australia. The CSIRO climate-change predictions for the region indicate likely temperature increases of 3°C, and annual rainfall reductions of around 200mm by the year 2070. Much of the study area overlaps a region that has been identified as one of the city's growth corridors. We used Bayesian logistic regression modelling to estimate current and future habitat suitability of pond sites in the Merri Creek catchment, exploring a range of best- to worst-case scenarios through the use of hydrological and urbanization models. Our predictions for 2070, even under a moderate climate-change scenario, suggest that the majority of ponds in the study area will be dry throughout much of the year. This has obvious implications for L.tasmaniensis, which is an aquatic breeding species. However, in the short term, urbanization is likely to have a more significant effect on the distribution of L.tasmaniensis in the Merri Creek catchment, particularly if development moves beyond the current urban growth boundary. The combined effects of climate change and urbanization could have a profound impact on the species, potentially causing it to disappear from within the study area. We provide recommendations for including such predictive models in urban planning and restoration activities to prepare for future conservation challenges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2012 Ecological Society of Australia.
Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective
- Valenzuela, Ernesto, Anderson, Kym
- Authors: Valenzuela, Ernesto , Anderson, Kym
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales Vol. 11, no. 1 (2011 2011), p. 29-58
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the world’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sector’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.
- Authors: Valenzuela, Ernesto , Anderson, Kym
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales Vol. 11, no. 1 (2011 2011), p. 29-58
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the world’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sector’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.
The impacts of climate change on trade and foreign direct investment flows
- Authors: Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: A growing body of climate economics research suggests that climate change affects production, prices, distribution structures, investments and national income. Studies further describe international trade and climate related investments as key activities in climate impact mitigation and adaptation. However, despite its increasing relevance, the empirical link between climate change and international trade and investment remains largely unexplored. This thesis investigates the climate change impacts on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows using static and dynamic panel estimations covering 102 countries. The modelling uses temperature and precipitation variability to separately evaluate changes in international trade from 1962 to 2014, and in FDI inflows from 1995 to 2014. The trade impacts estimations consider exports of total merchandise, agriculture and six agricultural sectors; while controlling for income, comparative advantage, productivity, domestic and trade policies, and climate zones. The FDI impacts modelling evaluates total and sectoral inflows, while controlling for income, market size, infrastructure, openness, financial development, the global financial crisis and climate zones. Results show that climate change significantly affects both exports and FDI inflows. In particular, temperature affects merchandise exports, negatively at the global and developing country level, and positively in high-income countries. Agricultural exports are negatively affected by temperature. At the sectoral level, oil-seeds and dairy are mostly affected. Precipitation effects are limited and mostly negative for agriculture. The FDI world aggregate flows respond mostly positively to both temperature and precipitation, and static estimations indicate a FDI positive response in developing countries. Furthermore, FDI sectoral estimations indicate a differentiated response. Findings could inform the formulation of trade and investment policies, at the national and global level, in consideration to the differential impacts of climate change across sectors, regions and economic status. Furthermore, these estimates could be used in projections considering climate change as a determinant of trade and investment flows.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
- Authors: Barua, Suborna
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: A growing body of climate economics research suggests that climate change affects production, prices, distribution structures, investments and national income. Studies further describe international trade and climate related investments as key activities in climate impact mitigation and adaptation. However, despite its increasing relevance, the empirical link between climate change and international trade and investment remains largely unexplored. This thesis investigates the climate change impacts on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows using static and dynamic panel estimations covering 102 countries. The modelling uses temperature and precipitation variability to separately evaluate changes in international trade from 1962 to 2014, and in FDI inflows from 1995 to 2014. The trade impacts estimations consider exports of total merchandise, agriculture and six agricultural sectors; while controlling for income, comparative advantage, productivity, domestic and trade policies, and climate zones. The FDI impacts modelling evaluates total and sectoral inflows, while controlling for income, market size, infrastructure, openness, financial development, the global financial crisis and climate zones. Results show that climate change significantly affects both exports and FDI inflows. In particular, temperature affects merchandise exports, negatively at the global and developing country level, and positively in high-income countries. Agricultural exports are negatively affected by temperature. At the sectoral level, oil-seeds and dairy are mostly affected. Precipitation effects are limited and mostly negative for agriculture. The FDI world aggregate flows respond mostly positively to both temperature and precipitation, and static estimations indicate a FDI positive response in developing countries. Furthermore, FDI sectoral estimations indicate a differentiated response. Findings could inform the formulation of trade and investment policies, at the national and global level, in consideration to the differential impacts of climate change across sectors, regions and economic status. Furthermore, these estimates could be used in projections considering climate change as a determinant of trade and investment flows.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Reducing climate change related fugitive greenhouse gas emissions from operational longwall coal mines
- Authors: Holmes, Robert
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: The aim of this research is to quantify and validate a method which can significantly reduce fugitive greenhouse gas emissions from collieries in Australia, both cost-effectively and safely. Methane (CH₄) is controlled in collieries currently only for safety, statutory compliance or for capture and use reasons. But today, there is pressure on collieries to reduce not only mining costs but their greenhouse gas emissions. It is known that 65% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with collieries come from fugitive ventilation air methane (VAM). The oxidising machinery to mitigate these fugitive emissions is expensive, has safety concerns and is not widely used at present for these reasons. But widespread concern over GHG emissions means that it is desirable to lower VAM emissions now. One safe, low-cost and non-gas drainage solution explored herein to reduce emissions, is a method to prevent some CH₄ from entering the mine airstream and becoming VAM in the first place. This emissions reduction method underwent a 12-month trial in a colliery in the Hunter Valley using six different quantified and costed non-gas drainage measures. All relevant data was retained, and with the mine’s permission has been processed and published here as a part of this research. A reduction in fugitive emissions of 95,398 t/CO₂-e below that projected for the subsequent 12 months was quantified, at a mitigation cost of A$1.08 t/CO₂-e. The level of mitigation achieved, represents approximately 20% of the mine’s VAM emissions. This research has also further tested the method used in the Hunter Valley trial, by visiting two other large collieries in Queensland, and assessing the two most successful mitigation measures from the Hunter Valley trial (roadway sealing and pressure balancing of sealed panels) against operational conditions at these collieries by ventilation modelling, using their measured gas, airflow and seal pressure data.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
- Authors: Holmes, Robert
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: The aim of this research is to quantify and validate a method which can significantly reduce fugitive greenhouse gas emissions from collieries in Australia, both cost-effectively and safely. Methane (CH₄) is controlled in collieries currently only for safety, statutory compliance or for capture and use reasons. But today, there is pressure on collieries to reduce not only mining costs but their greenhouse gas emissions. It is known that 65% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with collieries come from fugitive ventilation air methane (VAM). The oxidising machinery to mitigate these fugitive emissions is expensive, has safety concerns and is not widely used at present for these reasons. But widespread concern over GHG emissions means that it is desirable to lower VAM emissions now. One safe, low-cost and non-gas drainage solution explored herein to reduce emissions, is a method to prevent some CH₄ from entering the mine airstream and becoming VAM in the first place. This emissions reduction method underwent a 12-month trial in a colliery in the Hunter Valley using six different quantified and costed non-gas drainage measures. All relevant data was retained, and with the mine’s permission has been processed and published here as a part of this research. A reduction in fugitive emissions of 95,398 t/CO₂-e below that projected for the subsequent 12 months was quantified, at a mitigation cost of A$1.08 t/CO₂-e. The level of mitigation achieved, represents approximately 20% of the mine’s VAM emissions. This research has also further tested the method used in the Hunter Valley trial, by visiting two other large collieries in Queensland, and assessing the two most successful mitigation measures from the Hunter Valley trial (roadway sealing and pressure balancing of sealed panels) against operational conditions at these collieries by ventilation modelling, using their measured gas, airflow and seal pressure data.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Weeds in a changing climate : Vulnerabilities, consequences, and implications for future weed management
- Ramesh, Kulasekaran, Matloob, Amar, Aslam, Farhena, Florentine, Singarayer, Chauhan, Bhagirath
- Authors: Ramesh, Kulasekaran , Matloob, Amar , Aslam, Farhena , Florentine, Singarayer , Chauhan, Bhagirath
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Frontiers in Plant Science Vol. 8, no. (2017), p. 1-13
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Whilst it is agreed that climate change will impact on the long-term interactions between crops and weeds, the results of this impact are far from clear. We suggest that a thorough understanding of weed dominance and weed interactions, depending on crop and weed ecosystems and crop sequences in the ecosystem, will be the key determining factor for successful weed management. Indeed, we claim that recent changes observed throughout the world within the weed spectrum in different cropping systems which were ostensibly related to climate change, warrant a deeper examination of weed vulnerabilities before a full understanding is reached. For example, the uncontrolled establishment of weeds in crops leads to a mixed population, in terms of C3 and C4 pathways, and this poses a considerable level of complexity for weed management. There is a need to include all possible combinations of crops and weeds while studying the impact of climate change on crop-weed competitive interactions, since, from a weed management perspective, C4 weeds would flourish in the increased temperature scenario and pose serious yield penalties. This is particularly alarming as a majority of the most competitive weeds are C4 plants. Although CO2 is considered as a main contributing factor for climate change, a few Australian studies have also predicted differing responses of weed species due to shifts in rainfall patterns. Reduced water availability, due to recurrent and unforeseen droughts, would alter the competitive balance between crops and some weed species, intensifying the crop-weed competition pressure. Although it is recognized that the weed pressure associated with climate change is a significant threat to crop production, either through increased temperatures, rainfall shift, and elevated CO2 levels, the current knowledge of this effect is very sparse. A few models that have attempted to predict these interactions are discussed in this paper, since these models could play an integral role in developing future management programs for future weed threats. This review has presented a comprehensive discussion of the recent research in this area, and has identified key deficiencies which need further research in crop-weed eco-systems to formulate suitable control measures before the real impacts of climate change set in. © 2017 Ramesh, Matloob, Aslam, Florentine and Chauhan.
- Authors: Ramesh, Kulasekaran , Matloob, Amar , Aslam, Farhena , Florentine, Singarayer , Chauhan, Bhagirath
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Frontiers in Plant Science Vol. 8, no. (2017), p. 1-13
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Whilst it is agreed that climate change will impact on the long-term interactions between crops and weeds, the results of this impact are far from clear. We suggest that a thorough understanding of weed dominance and weed interactions, depending on crop and weed ecosystems and crop sequences in the ecosystem, will be the key determining factor for successful weed management. Indeed, we claim that recent changes observed throughout the world within the weed spectrum in different cropping systems which were ostensibly related to climate change, warrant a deeper examination of weed vulnerabilities before a full understanding is reached. For example, the uncontrolled establishment of weeds in crops leads to a mixed population, in terms of C3 and C4 pathways, and this poses a considerable level of complexity for weed management. There is a need to include all possible combinations of crops and weeds while studying the impact of climate change on crop-weed competitive interactions, since, from a weed management perspective, C4 weeds would flourish in the increased temperature scenario and pose serious yield penalties. This is particularly alarming as a majority of the most competitive weeds are C4 plants. Although CO2 is considered as a main contributing factor for climate change, a few Australian studies have also predicted differing responses of weed species due to shifts in rainfall patterns. Reduced water availability, due to recurrent and unforeseen droughts, would alter the competitive balance between crops and some weed species, intensifying the crop-weed competition pressure. Although it is recognized that the weed pressure associated with climate change is a significant threat to crop production, either through increased temperatures, rainfall shift, and elevated CO2 levels, the current knowledge of this effect is very sparse. A few models that have attempted to predict these interactions are discussed in this paper, since these models could play an integral role in developing future management programs for future weed threats. This review has presented a comprehensive discussion of the recent research in this area, and has identified key deficiencies which need further research in crop-weed eco-systems to formulate suitable control measures before the real impacts of climate change set in. © 2017 Ramesh, Matloob, Aslam, Florentine and Chauhan.
Latrobe Valley circular industrial ecosystem
- Authors: Ghayur, Adeel
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: Climate change, energy security, pollution and increasing unemployment in the face of automation are four critical challenges facing every region in the twenty-first century, including the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, Australia. The Valley – location of the largest brown coal deposits and forest industry in the southern hemisphere – is undergoing unprecedented and rapid changes. Its ageing brown coal power plants are retiring and replacements are not planned, leading to job insecurity. Solutions are needed that ensure continued economic activity in the region whilst allowing for the Valley to contribute its fair share in the fight against the climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate a possible local solution that could help tackle these issues of the Latrobe Valley in addition to plastic pollution and energy insecurity. Transitioning from linear to circular materials flow is one possible solution that favours sustainability and job security. Consequently, a multiproduct succinic acid biorefinery is modelled, acting as an industrial hub in a potential Latrobe Valley circular economy. This allows for employment creation in the value-addition of its platform chemicals into carbon negative and environment-friendly products. Additionally, such a biorefinery concept has the capacity to tackle Post-combustion CO2 Capture (PCC) industry’s wastes. It is anticipated that any future utilisation of brown coal as an energy vector would entail PCC to ensure carbon neutrality. A PCC industry produces CO2 and amine wastes that require adequate disposal. The modelled biorefinery has the capacity to valorise both. The simulation and the techno-economic analysis show the modelled Carbon Negative Biorefinery consumes 656,000 metric tonnes (t) of pulp logs and 42,000 t of CO2 to produce 220,000 t of succinic acid, 115,000 t of acetic acid and 900 t of dimethyl ether, annually. Biorefinery’s CAPEX and OPEX stand at AU$ 635,000,000 and $ 180,000,000 respectively. The calculated Minimum Selling Price for succinic acid is $ 990/t, only 6.4% higher than a typical biorefinery. Subsequently, biorefinery’s capacity as an anchor tenant is also simulated via technical evaluations of four value-added products: • Poly(butylene succinate) as biodegradable polymer replacing petro-plastics – simulation results show 1 t of succinic acid produces 0.19 t of tetrahydrofuran and 0.44 t of poly(butylene succinate); • Carbon fibre for insulation products, sporting goods and foams – 1 t of lignin and 0.8 t of acetic anhydride produce 0.8 t of carbon fibre; • Succinylated lignin adhesive for replacing urea-formaldehyde in the wood industry – simulation results show the biorefinery concept having the capacity to valorise both waste amine and CO2 from a PCC plant; and • Renewable fuels like hydrogen as energy vectors – a small biorefinery can potentially provide dozens of gigawatt hours of stored power for backup and peak demands, annually. In summary, results of this research are: • A biorefinery can valorise PCC plant wastes; • Multiproduct succinic acid biorefinery is economically viable; • Renewable fuels are ideally suited as energy storage vectors for a renewable energy grid both in developing and developed countries; • Bioproducts can reduce CO2 emissions thereby mitigate climate change; • Bioproducts can replace petro-products and reduce pollution; • Bioproducts can replace construction industry materials associated with CO2 emissions; • Biorefineries can help a region transition from a linear to a circular economy; and • Circular economies have the potential to generate secure jobs. In conclusion, this research identifies platform biochemicals as potential key drivers in a linear economy’s transition to a circular economy.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
- Authors: Ghayur, Adeel
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
- Full Text:
- Description: Climate change, energy security, pollution and increasing unemployment in the face of automation are four critical challenges facing every region in the twenty-first century, including the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, Australia. The Valley – location of the largest brown coal deposits and forest industry in the southern hemisphere – is undergoing unprecedented and rapid changes. Its ageing brown coal power plants are retiring and replacements are not planned, leading to job insecurity. Solutions are needed that ensure continued economic activity in the region whilst allowing for the Valley to contribute its fair share in the fight against the climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate a possible local solution that could help tackle these issues of the Latrobe Valley in addition to plastic pollution and energy insecurity. Transitioning from linear to circular materials flow is one possible solution that favours sustainability and job security. Consequently, a multiproduct succinic acid biorefinery is modelled, acting as an industrial hub in a potential Latrobe Valley circular economy. This allows for employment creation in the value-addition of its platform chemicals into carbon negative and environment-friendly products. Additionally, such a biorefinery concept has the capacity to tackle Post-combustion CO2 Capture (PCC) industry’s wastes. It is anticipated that any future utilisation of brown coal as an energy vector would entail PCC to ensure carbon neutrality. A PCC industry produces CO2 and amine wastes that require adequate disposal. The modelled biorefinery has the capacity to valorise both. The simulation and the techno-economic analysis show the modelled Carbon Negative Biorefinery consumes 656,000 metric tonnes (t) of pulp logs and 42,000 t of CO2 to produce 220,000 t of succinic acid, 115,000 t of acetic acid and 900 t of dimethyl ether, annually. Biorefinery’s CAPEX and OPEX stand at AU$ 635,000,000 and $ 180,000,000 respectively. The calculated Minimum Selling Price for succinic acid is $ 990/t, only 6.4% higher than a typical biorefinery. Subsequently, biorefinery’s capacity as an anchor tenant is also simulated via technical evaluations of four value-added products: • Poly(butylene succinate) as biodegradable polymer replacing petro-plastics – simulation results show 1 t of succinic acid produces 0.19 t of tetrahydrofuran and 0.44 t of poly(butylene succinate); • Carbon fibre for insulation products, sporting goods and foams – 1 t of lignin and 0.8 t of acetic anhydride produce 0.8 t of carbon fibre; • Succinylated lignin adhesive for replacing urea-formaldehyde in the wood industry – simulation results show the biorefinery concept having the capacity to valorise both waste amine and CO2 from a PCC plant; and • Renewable fuels like hydrogen as energy vectors – a small biorefinery can potentially provide dozens of gigawatt hours of stored power for backup and peak demands, annually. In summary, results of this research are: • A biorefinery can valorise PCC plant wastes; • Multiproduct succinic acid biorefinery is economically viable; • Renewable fuels are ideally suited as energy storage vectors for a renewable energy grid both in developing and developed countries; • Bioproducts can reduce CO2 emissions thereby mitigate climate change; • Bioproducts can replace petro-products and reduce pollution; • Bioproducts can replace construction industry materials associated with CO2 emissions; • Biorefineries can help a region transition from a linear to a circular economy; and • Circular economies have the potential to generate secure jobs. In conclusion, this research identifies platform biochemicals as potential key drivers in a linear economy’s transition to a circular economy.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Photosynthetic activity and water use efficiency of Salvia verbenaca L. under elevated CO2 and water‐deficit conditions
- Javaid, Muhammad Mansoor, Florentine, Singarayer, Ashraf, Muhammad, Mahmood, Athar, Sattar, Abdul, Wasaya, Allah, Li, Feng‐Min
- Authors: Javaid, Muhammad Mansoor , Florentine, Singarayer , Ashraf, Muhammad , Mahmood, Athar , Sattar, Abdul , Wasaya, Allah , Li, Feng‐Min
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of agronomy and crop science Vol. 208, no. 4 (2022), p. 536-551
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Investigating the combined effects of elevated CO2 concentration and water‐deficit on weed plants is crucial to gaining a thorough understanding of plant performance and modifying agricultural processes under changing climate conditions. This study examined the effect of elevated CO2 concentration and water‐deficit conditions on leaf gas exchange, water use efficiency, carboxylation efficiency and the photosystem II (PSII) activity of two Salvia verbenaca L., varieties. These varieties were grown under two CO2 concentrations (ambient conditions of 400 ppm and elevated conditions of 700 ppm) and two water regimes (well‐watered [100% field capacity] and water‐deficit conditions [60% field capacity]) in laboratory growth chambers. For 12 days, at 2‐day intervals, (i) leaf gas exchange parameters (photosynthesis rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate (E) and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci)), (ii) water use efficiency (WUE), (iii) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE), (iv) instantaneous carboxylation efficiency and (v) PSII activity (fluorescence, quantum yield of PSII, photochemical efficiency of PSII, photochemical quenching and photosynthetic electron transport) were measured. Water‐deficit conditions had negative effects on studied parameters of both varieties, whereas elevated CO2 concentration had positive effects on the gas exchange, water use efficiency and PSII activity of both. Salvia verbenaca varieties grown under water‐deficit conditions from Day 0 to Day 5 showed a partial recovery in most of the parameters when the resumption of the well‐watered regime was reinstituted on Day 6. Salvia verbenaca varieties grown under water‐deficit conditions were re‐watered on day 6 and indicated a partial recovery in all the parameters. A comparison of the two varieties showed that var. vernalis recorded higher values of gas exchange, quantum yield of PSII and photochemical efficiency of PSII than var. verbenaca, but the water use efficiency of var. verbenaca was higher than that of var. vernalis. These differences serve to illustrate the complexity of such studies and suggest that a detailed understanding of the nature of weed infestations is essential if optimum management control is to be practiced. Elevated CO2 concentration mitigated the adverse effects of water‐deficit conditions and thereby enhanced the adaptive mechanism of this weed by improving its water use efficiency. It is thus likely that S. verbenaca has the potential to take advantage of climate change by increasing its relative competitiveness with other plants in drought‐prone areas, suggesting that it could significantly expand its invasive range under such conditions.
- Authors: Javaid, Muhammad Mansoor , Florentine, Singarayer , Ashraf, Muhammad , Mahmood, Athar , Sattar, Abdul , Wasaya, Allah , Li, Feng‐Min
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of agronomy and crop science Vol. 208, no. 4 (2022), p. 536-551
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Investigating the combined effects of elevated CO2 concentration and water‐deficit on weed plants is crucial to gaining a thorough understanding of plant performance and modifying agricultural processes under changing climate conditions. This study examined the effect of elevated CO2 concentration and water‐deficit conditions on leaf gas exchange, water use efficiency, carboxylation efficiency and the photosystem II (PSII) activity of two Salvia verbenaca L., varieties. These varieties were grown under two CO2 concentrations (ambient conditions of 400 ppm and elevated conditions of 700 ppm) and two water regimes (well‐watered [100% field capacity] and water‐deficit conditions [60% field capacity]) in laboratory growth chambers. For 12 days, at 2‐day intervals, (i) leaf gas exchange parameters (photosynthesis rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate (E) and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci)), (ii) water use efficiency (WUE), (iii) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE), (iv) instantaneous carboxylation efficiency and (v) PSII activity (fluorescence, quantum yield of PSII, photochemical efficiency of PSII, photochemical quenching and photosynthetic electron transport) were measured. Water‐deficit conditions had negative effects on studied parameters of both varieties, whereas elevated CO2 concentration had positive effects on the gas exchange, water use efficiency and PSII activity of both. Salvia verbenaca varieties grown under water‐deficit conditions from Day 0 to Day 5 showed a partial recovery in most of the parameters when the resumption of the well‐watered regime was reinstituted on Day 6. Salvia verbenaca varieties grown under water‐deficit conditions were re‐watered on day 6 and indicated a partial recovery in all the parameters. A comparison of the two varieties showed that var. vernalis recorded higher values of gas exchange, quantum yield of PSII and photochemical efficiency of PSII than var. verbenaca, but the water use efficiency of var. verbenaca was higher than that of var. vernalis. These differences serve to illustrate the complexity of such studies and suggest that a detailed understanding of the nature of weed infestations is essential if optimum management control is to be practiced. Elevated CO2 concentration mitigated the adverse effects of water‐deficit conditions and thereby enhanced the adaptive mechanism of this weed by improving its water use efficiency. It is thus likely that S. verbenaca has the potential to take advantage of climate change by increasing its relative competitiveness with other plants in drought‐prone areas, suggesting that it could significantly expand its invasive range under such conditions.