Risk assessment and prediction of flyrock distance by combined multiple regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of quarry blasting
- Authors: Armaghani, Danial , Mahdiyar, Amir , Hasanipanah, Mahdi , Faradonbeh, Roohollah , Khandelwal, Manoj , Amnieh, Hassan
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering Vol. 49, no. 9 (2016), p. 3631-3641
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Flyrock is considered as one of the main causes of human injury, fatalities, and structural damage among all undesirable environmental impacts of blasting. Therefore, it seems that the proper prediction/simulation of flyrock is essential, especially in order to determine blast safety area. If proper control measures are taken, then the flyrock distance can be controlled, and, in return, the risk of damage can be reduced or eliminated. The first objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for flyrock estimation based on multiple regression (MR) analyses, and after that, using the developed MR model, flyrock phenomenon was simulated by the Monte Carlo (MC) approach. In order to achieve objectives of this study, 62 blasting operations were investigated in Ulu Tiram quarry, Malaysia, and some controllable and uncontrollable factors were carefully recorded/calculated. The obtained results of MC modeling indicated that this approach is capable of simulating flyrock ranges with a good level of accuracy. The mean of simulated flyrock by MC was obtained as 236.3 m, while this value was achieved as 238.6 m for the measured one. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the effects of model inputs on the output of the system. The analysis demonstrated that powder factor is the most influential parameter on fly rock among all model inputs. It is noticeable that the proposed MR and MC models should be utilized only in the studied area and the direct use of them in the other conditions is not recommended.
Development of a precise model for prediction of blast-induced flyrock using regression tree technique
- Authors: Hasanipanah, Mahdi , Faradonbeh, Roohollah , Armaghani, Danial , Amnieh, Hassan , Khandelwal, Manoj
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Environmental Earth Sciences Vol. 76, no. 1 (2017), p. 1-10
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Drilling and blasting is the predominant rock fragmentation method in open-cast mines and civil construction works. Flyrock is one of the most hazardous effects caused by blasting operation. Therefore, the ability to make accurate predictions of the blast-induced flyrock is essential to reduce the environmental problems. This paper aimed to develop a precise and applicable model based on regression tree (RT) to predict blast-produced flyrock distance in Ulu Tiram quarry, Malaysia. In this regard, 65 blasting operations were investigated and the most influential factors on the flyrock, i.e. blast-hole length, spacing, burden, stemming, maximum charge used per delay and powder factor, were measured. Also, the flyrock distance values for the considered blasting events were carefully measured. In order to check the precision of the proposed RT model, multiple linear regression (MLR) model was also developed and both of the predictive models were compared. For this work, some statistical functions, i.e. median absolute error, coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error, were used and computed. The results revealed that the RT can be introduced as a powerful technique to predict flyrock distance and the proposed RT model can estimate flyrock distance better than MLR model. Also, sensitivity analysis was performed and it was found that the powder factor is the most influential parameter on the flyrock in the studied case. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.