- Title
- Predicting and controlling the dynamics of infectious diseases
- Creator
- Evans, Robin; Mammadov, Musa
- Date
- 2015
- Type
- Text; Conference proceedings
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/100787
- Identifier
- vital:10598
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2015.7403061
- Abstract
- This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time to isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent parameter that defines the spread of infection. All the preventive measures aim to decrease the average time to isolation under given constraints. The model suggested allows one to generate a small number of possible future scenarios and to determine corresponding trajectories of infected population in different regions. Then, this information is used to find an optimal distribution of bed capabilities across countries/regions according to each scenario. © 2015 IEEE.
- Publisher
- Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
- Relation
- 54th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, CDC 2015; Osaka, Japan; 15th-18th December 2015; Published in Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control; p. 5378-5383
- Rights
- Copyright © 2015 IEEE.
- Rights
- Open Access
- Rights
- This metadata is freely available under a CCO license
- Subject
- Diseases; Hospitals; Mathematical model; Optimal control; Predictive models; Sociology; Statistics
- Full Text
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | Accepted version | 432 KB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download | ||
| View Details Download | SOURCE2 | Published Version | 428 KB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |