Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 1 : Time-varying exposures
- Nielsen, Rasmus, Bertelsen, Michael, Ramskov, Daniel, Møller, Merete, Hulme, Adam, Theisen, Daniel, Finch, Caroline, Fortington, Lauren, Mansournia, Mohammad, Parner, Erik
- Authors: Nielsen, Rasmus , Bertelsen, Michael , Ramskov, Daniel , Møller, Merete , Hulme, Adam , Theisen, Daniel , Finch, Caroline , Fortington, Lauren , Mansournia, Mohammad , Parner, Erik
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: British Journal of Sports Medicine Vol. 53, no. 1 (2019), p. 61-68
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- Description: Background: 'How much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among different athletes?' is a key question in sports medicine and sports science. To address this question the investigator/practitioner must analyse exposure variables that change over time, such as change in training load. Very few studies have included time-varying exposures (eg, training load) and time-varying effect-measure modifiers (eg, previous injury, biomechanics, sleep/stress) when studying sports injury aetiology. Aim: To discuss advanced statistical methods suitable for the complex analysis of time-varying exposures such as changes in training load and injury-related outcomes. Content: Time-varying exposures and time-varying effect-measure modifiers can be used in time-to-event models to investigate sport injury aetiology. We address four key-questions (i) Does time-to-event modelling allow change in training load to be included as a time-varying exposure for sport injury development? (ii) Why is time-to-event analysis superior to other analytical concepts when analysing training-load related data that changes status over time? (iii) How can researchers include change in training load in a time-to-event analysis? and, (iv) Are researchers able to include other time-varying variables into time-to-event analyses? We emphasise that cleaning datasets, setting up the data, performing analyses with time-varying variables and interpreting the results is time-consuming, and requires dedication. It may need you to ask for assistance from methodological peers as the analytical approaches presented this paper require specialist knowledge and well-honed statistical skills. Conclusion: To increase knowledge about the association between changes in training load and injury, we encourage sports injury researchers to collaborate with statisticians and/or methodological epidemiologists to carefully consider applying time-to-event models to prospective sports injury data. This will ensure appropriate interpretation of time-to-event data. © 2019 Author(s).
- Authors: Nielsen, Rasmus , Bertelsen, Michael , Ramskov, Daniel , Møller, Merete , Hulme, Adam , Theisen, Daniel , Finch, Caroline , Fortington, Lauren , Mansournia, Mohammad , Parner, Erik
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: British Journal of Sports Medicine Vol. 53, no. 1 (2019), p. 61-68
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: 'How much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among different athletes?' is a key question in sports medicine and sports science. To address this question the investigator/practitioner must analyse exposure variables that change over time, such as change in training load. Very few studies have included time-varying exposures (eg, training load) and time-varying effect-measure modifiers (eg, previous injury, biomechanics, sleep/stress) when studying sports injury aetiology. Aim: To discuss advanced statistical methods suitable for the complex analysis of time-varying exposures such as changes in training load and injury-related outcomes. Content: Time-varying exposures and time-varying effect-measure modifiers can be used in time-to-event models to investigate sport injury aetiology. We address four key-questions (i) Does time-to-event modelling allow change in training load to be included as a time-varying exposure for sport injury development? (ii) Why is time-to-event analysis superior to other analytical concepts when analysing training-load related data that changes status over time? (iii) How can researchers include change in training load in a time-to-event analysis? and, (iv) Are researchers able to include other time-varying variables into time-to-event analyses? We emphasise that cleaning datasets, setting up the data, performing analyses with time-varying variables and interpreting the results is time-consuming, and requires dedication. It may need you to ask for assistance from methodological peers as the analytical approaches presented this paper require specialist knowledge and well-honed statistical skills. Conclusion: To increase knowledge about the association between changes in training load and injury, we encourage sports injury researchers to collaborate with statisticians and/or methodological epidemiologists to carefully consider applying time-to-event models to prospective sports injury data. This will ensure appropriate interpretation of time-to-event data. © 2019 Author(s).
Identifying high risk loading conditions for in-season injury in elite Australian football players
- Stares, Jordan, Dawson, Brian, Peeling, Peter, Heasman, Jarryd, Rogalski, Brent, Drew, Michael, Colby, Marcus, Dupont, Gregory, Lester, Leanne
- Authors: Stares, Jordan , Dawson, Brian , Peeling, Peter , Heasman, Jarryd , Rogalski, Brent , Drew, Michael , Colby, Marcus , Dupont, Gregory , Lester, Leanne
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport Vol. 21, no. 1 (2018), p. 46-51
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Objectives To examine different timeframes for calculating acute to chronic workload ratio (ACWR) and whether this variable is associated with intrinsic injury risk in elite Australian football players. Design Prospective cohort study. Methods Internal (session rating of perceived exertion: sRPE) and external (GPS distance and sprint distance) workload and injury data were collected from 70 players from one AFL club over 4 seasons. Various acute (1–2 weeks) and chronic (3–8 weeks) timeframes were used to calculate ACWRs: these and chronic load categories were then analysed to determine the injury risk in the subsequent month. Poisson regression with robust errors within a generalised estimating equation were utilised to determine incidence rate ratios (IRR). Results Altering acute and/or chronic timeframes did not improve the ability to detect high injury risk conditions above the commonly used 1:4 week ACWR. Twenty-seven ACWR/chronic load combinations were found to be “high risk conditions” (IRR > 1, p < 0.05) for injury within 7 days. Most (93%) of these conditions occurred when chronic load was low or very low and ACWR was either low (<0.6) or high (>1.5). Once a high injury risk condition was entered, the elevated risk persisted for up to 28 days. Conclusions Injury risk was greatest when chronic load was low and ACWR was either low or high. This heightened risk remained for up to 4 weeks. There was no improvement in the ability to identify high injury risk situations by altering acute or chronic time periods from 1:4 weeks.
Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 2 : Time-varying outcomes
- Nielsen, Rasmus, Bertelsen, Michael, Ramskov, Daniel, Møller, Merete, Hulme, Adam, Theisen, Daniel, Finch, Caroline, Fortington, Lauren, Mansournia, Mohammad, Parner, Erik
- Authors: Nielsen, Rasmus , Bertelsen, Michael , Ramskov, Daniel , Møller, Merete , Hulme, Adam , Theisen, Daniel , Finch, Caroline , Fortington, Lauren , Mansournia, Mohammad , Parner, Erik
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: British Journal of Sports Medicine Vol. 53, no. 1 (2019), p. 70-78
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Time-to-event modelling is underutilised in sports injury research. Still, sports injury researchers have been encouraged to consider time-to-event analyses as a powerful alternative to other statistical methods. Therefore, it is important to shed light on statistical approaches suitable for analysing training load related key-questions within the sports injury domain. Content: In the present article, we illuminate: (i) the possibilities of including time-varying outcomes in time-to-event analyses, (ii) how to deal with a situation where different types of sports injuries are included in the analyses (ie, competing risks), and (iii) how to deal with the situation where multiple subsequent injuries occur in the same athlete. Conclusion: Time-to-event analyses can handle time-varying outcomes, competing risk and multiple subsequent injuries. Although powerful, time-to-event has important requirements: researchers are encouraged to carefully consider prior to any data collection that five injuries per exposure state or transition is needed to avoid conducting statistical analyses on time-to-event data leading to biased results. This requirement becomes particularly difficult to accommodate when a stratified analysis is required as the number of variables increases exponentially for each additional strata included. In future sports injury research, we need stratified analyses if the target of our research is to respond to the question: 'how much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among athletes with different characteristics?' Responding to this question using multiple time-varying exposures (and outcomes) requires millions of injuries. This should not be a barrier for future research, but collaborations across borders to collecting the amount of data needed seems to be an important step forward.
- Authors: Nielsen, Rasmus , Bertelsen, Michael , Ramskov, Daniel , Møller, Merete , Hulme, Adam , Theisen, Daniel , Finch, Caroline , Fortington, Lauren , Mansournia, Mohammad , Parner, Erik
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: British Journal of Sports Medicine Vol. 53, no. 1 (2019), p. 70-78
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Time-to-event modelling is underutilised in sports injury research. Still, sports injury researchers have been encouraged to consider time-to-event analyses as a powerful alternative to other statistical methods. Therefore, it is important to shed light on statistical approaches suitable for analysing training load related key-questions within the sports injury domain. Content: In the present article, we illuminate: (i) the possibilities of including time-varying outcomes in time-to-event analyses, (ii) how to deal with a situation where different types of sports injuries are included in the analyses (ie, competing risks), and (iii) how to deal with the situation where multiple subsequent injuries occur in the same athlete. Conclusion: Time-to-event analyses can handle time-varying outcomes, competing risk and multiple subsequent injuries. Although powerful, time-to-event has important requirements: researchers are encouraged to carefully consider prior to any data collection that five injuries per exposure state or transition is needed to avoid conducting statistical analyses on time-to-event data leading to biased results. This requirement becomes particularly difficult to accommodate when a stratified analysis is required as the number of variables increases exponentially for each additional strata included. In future sports injury research, we need stratified analyses if the target of our research is to respond to the question: 'how much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among athletes with different characteristics?' Responding to this question using multiple time-varying exposures (and outcomes) requires millions of injuries. This should not be a barrier for future research, but collaborations across borders to collecting the amount of data needed seems to be an important step forward.
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