A hybrid of multiobjective evolutionary algorithm and HMM-Fuzzy model for time series prediction
- Hassan, Md Rafiul, Nath, Gupta, Kirley, Michael, Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Authors: Hassan, Md Rafiul , Nath, Gupta , Kirley, Michael , Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Date: 2012
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Neurocomputing Vol. 81, no. April (2012), p. 1-11
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: In this paper, we introduce a new hybrid of Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Fuzzy Logic and multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) for building a fuzzy model to predict non-linear time series data. In this hybrid approach, the HMM's log-likelihood score for each data pattern is used to rank the data and fuzzy rules are generated using the ranked data. We use multiobjective EA to find a range of trade-off solutions between the number of fuzzy rules and the prediction accuracy. The model is tested on a number of benchmark and more recent financial time series data. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that our model is able to generate a reduced number of fuzzy rules with similar (and in some cases better) performance compared with typical data driven fuzzy models reported in the literature.
Enhancing branch predictors using genetic algorithm
- Haque, Md Sarwar, Hassan, Md Rafiul, Sulaiman, Muhammad, Onoruoiza, Salami, Kamruzzaman, Joarder, Arifuzzaman, Md
- Authors: Haque, Md Sarwar , Hassan, Md Rafiul , Sulaiman, Muhammad , Onoruoiza, Salami , Kamruzzaman, Joarder , Arifuzzaman, Md
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 8th International Conference on Modeling Simulation and Applied Optimization, ICMSAO 2019
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Dynamic branch prediction is a hardware technique used to speculate the direction of control branches. Inaccurate prediction will make all speculative works useless while accurate prediction will significantly improve microprocessors performance. In this work, we have shown that Genetic Algorithm (GA) can be used to select (near) optimal parameters for branch predictors in most cases. The GA-enhanced predictors take time to find suitable parameters, but once the values of these parameters are determined, the GA-enhanced predictors take the same time to execute as the basic predictors with increased accuracy. © 2019 IEEE.
- Description: E1
A HMM-based adaptive fuzzy inference system for stock market forecasting
- Hassan, Md Rafiul, Ramamohanarao, Kotagiri, Kamruzzaman, Joarder, Rahman, Mustafizur, Hossain, Maruf
- Authors: Hassan, Md Rafiul , Ramamohanarao, Kotagiri , Kamruzzaman, Joarder , Rahman, Mustafizur , Hossain, Maruf
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Neurocomputing Vol. 104, no. (2013), p. 10-25
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: In this paper, we propose a new type of adaptive fuzzy inference system with a view to achieve improved performance for forecasting nonlinear time series data by dynamically adapting the fuzzy rules with arrival of new data. The structure of the fuzzy model utilized in the proposed system is developed based on the log-likelihood value of each data vector generated by a trained Hidden Markov Model. As part of its adaptation process, our system checks and computes the parameter values and generates new fuzzy rules as required, in response to new observations for obtaining better performance. In addition, it can also identify the most appropriate fuzzy rule in the system that covers the new data; and thus requires to adapt the parameters of the corresponding rule only, while keeping the rest of the model unchanged. This intelligent adaptive behavior enables our adaptive fuzzy inference system (FIS) to outperform standard FISs. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach for forecasting stock price indices. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can predict a number of stock indices, e.g., Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) index, NASDAQ index, Standard and Poor500 (S&P500) index and few other indices from UK (FTSE100), Germany (DAX) , Australia (AORD) and Japan (NIKKEI) stock markets, accurately compared with other existing computational and statistical methods.
Dynamic bandwidth access to cognitive radio ad hoc networks through pricing modeling
- Hassan, Md Rafiul, Karmakar, Gour, Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Authors: Hassan, Md Rafiul , Karmakar, Gour , Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Conference paper
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Spectrum resources are becoming more and more congested as the number of wireless devices are increasing and becoming ubiquitous. Cognitive radios or secondary users (SUs) can provide the solution for better spectrum availability, bandwidth and economic aspects for both the primary service providers and the SUs. We propose a pricing model for spectrum sharing in a single level market where the primary service providers can trade spectrum with the secondary service providers. The proposed pricing model incorporates the reliability of the primary service providers and allowable coverage area, quality of the signal along with the pricing and spectrum bandwidth availability. An iterative distributed algorithm is used to reach the market equilibrium so that both the primary and the secondary service providers are satisfied with the allocated spectrum bandwidth and negotiated price. The performance of the proposed model is demonstrated using extensive numerical results with the stability analysis in reaching the market equilibrium.
Modeling multiuser spectrum allocation for cognitive radio networks
- Bin Shahid, Mohammad, Kamruzzaman, Joarder, Hassan, Md Rafiul
- Authors: Bin Shahid, Mohammad , Kamruzzaman, Joarder , Hassan, Md Rafiul
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Computers & Electrical Engineering Vol. 52, no. (2016), p. 266-283
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Spectrum allocation scheme in cognitive radio networks (CRNs) becomes complex when multiple CR users concomitantly need to be allocated new and suitable bands once the primary user returns. Most existing schemes focus on the gain of individual users, ignoring the effect of an allocation on other users and rely on the 'periodic sensing and transmission' cycle which reduces spectrum utilization. This paper introduces a scheme that exploits collaboration among users to detect PU's return which relieves active CR users from the sensing task, and thereby improves spectrum utilization. It defines a Capacity of Service (CoS) metric based on the optimal sensing parameters which measures the suitability of a band for each contending user and takes into consideration the impact of allocating a particular band on other band seeking users. The proposed scheme significantly improves capacity of service, reduces interference loss and collision, and hence, enhances dynamic spectrum access capabilities. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A machine learning approach for prediction of pregnancy outcome following IVF treatment
- Hassan, Md Rafiul, Al-Insaif, Sadiq, Hossain, Muhammad, Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Authors: Hassan, Md Rafiul , Al-Insaif, Sadiq , Hossain, Muhammad , Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Neural Computing and Applications Vol. 32, no. 7 (2020), p. 2283-2297
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Infertility affects one out of seven couples around the world. Therefore, the best possible management of the in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment and patient advice is crucial for both patients and medical practitioners. The ultimate concern of the patients is the success of an IVF procedure, which depends on a number of influencing attributes. Without any automated tool, it is hard for the practitioners to assess any influencing trend of the attributes and factors that might lead to a successful IVF pregnancy. This paper proposes a hill climbing feature (attribute) selection algorithm coupled with automated classification using machine learning techniques with the aim to analyze and predict IVF pregnancy in greater accuracy. Using 25 attributes, we assessed the prediction ability of IVF pregnancy success for five different machine learning models, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), C4.5, classification and regression trees (CART) and random forest (RF). The prediction ability was measured in terms of widely used performance metrics, namely accuracy rate, F-measure and AUC. Feature selection algorithm reduced the number of most influential attributes to nineteen for MLP, sixteen for RF, seventeen for SVM, twelve for C4.5 and eight for CART. Overall, the most influential attributes identified are: ‘age’, ‘indication’ of fertility factor, ‘Antral Follicle Counts (AFC)’, ‘NbreM2’, ‘method of sperm collection’, ‘Chamotte’, ‘Fertilization rate in vitro’, ‘Follicles on day 14’ and ‘Embryo transfer day.’ The machine learning models trained with the selected set of features significantly improved the prediction accuracy of IVF pregnancy success to a level considerably higher than those reported in the current literature. © 2018, The Natural Computing Applications Forum.
- Hassan, Md Rafiul, ul Haq, Imran, Ramadan, Emad, Kamruzzaman, Joarder, Ahmed, Adel
- Authors: Hassan, Md Rafiul , ul Haq, Imran , Ramadan, Emad , Kamruzzaman, Joarder , Ahmed, Adel
- Date: 2015
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Current Bioinformatics Vol. 10, no. 1 (2015), p. 5-15
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: It is well known that the mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene can cause the hereditary breast cancer. However, it is a tedious and expensive task to identify the mutant genes that impact breast cancer due to the large number of genes and very small number of samples. Furthermore, the expressive energy of the subset of genes in comparison to that of one individual gene at a time is considered to have a profound influence in case of breast cancer. In this paper 7 tumors with BRCA1 mutation and 8 tumors with BRCA2 mutation have been used to identify the subset of discriminative genes. A combination of a non-parametric supervised and an unsupervised statistical method is introduced to analyze the gene expressions and the distinctive genes among the highly expressed genes are identified. The most important genes are filtered using the area under the curve (AUC) measure. These filtered genes are then used to build a hidden Markov model (HMM) to analyse their inter-relationship and identify the best subset among them. In addition, Protein-Protein interaction network is generated to analyse the pathways of the identified genes and their link with BRCA1 or BRCA2. Transcription Factors are identified and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) is calculated for the identified genes subset and the results are compared with the results mentioned in other cancer literature. Experimental results suggest that only 8 genes have been identified out of 3226 genes by the proposed hybrid method. Out of the 8 identified genes, 5 have been linked with breast cancer by other studies. Moreover, 7 genes have been associated with numerous diseases that may result in breast cancer. Furthermore, 8 transcription factors were identified that cover the identified genes and BRCA1 and BRCA2. Lastly, GSEA enrichment score of 0.52 is calculated for the identified genes and it is comparatively better considering the small subset of identified genes.
Breast density classification for cancer detection using DCT-PCA feature extraction and classifier ensemble
- Haque, Md Sarwar, Hassan, Md Rafiul, BinMakhashen, Galal, Owaidh, Abdullah, Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Authors: Haque, Md Sarwar , Hassan, Md Rafiul , BinMakhashen, Galal , Owaidh, Abdullah , Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings
- Relation: 17th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, ISDA 2017; Delhi, India; 14th-16th December 2017; published in Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series) Vol. 736, p. 702-711
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: It is well known that breast density in mammograms may hinder the accuracy of diagnosis of breast cancer. Although the dense breasts should be processed in a special manner, most of the research has treated dense breast almost the same as fatty. Consequently, the dense tissues in the breast are diagnosed as a developed cancer. In contrast, dense-fatty should be clearly distinguished before the diagnosis of cancerous or not cancerous breast. In this paper, we develop such a system that will automatically analyze mammograms and identify significant features. For feature extraction, we develop a novel system by combining a two-dimensional discrete cosine transform (2D-DCT) and a principal component analysis (PCA) to extract a minimal feature set of mammograms to differentiate breast density. These features are fed to three classifiers: Backpropagation Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and K Nearest Neighbour (KNN). A majority voting on the outputs of different machine learning tools is also investigated to enhance the classification performance. The results show that features extracted using a combination of DCT-PCA provide a very high classification performance while using a majority voting of classifiers outputs from MLP, SVM, and KNN.
- Authors: Haque, Md Sarwar , Hassan, Md Rafiul , BinMakhashen, Galal , Owaidh, Abdullah , Kamruzzaman, Joarder
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings
- Relation: 17th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, ISDA 2017; Delhi, India; 14th-16th December 2017; published in Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series) Vol. 736, p. 702-711
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: It is well known that breast density in mammograms may hinder the accuracy of diagnosis of breast cancer. Although the dense breasts should be processed in a special manner, most of the research has treated dense breast almost the same as fatty. Consequently, the dense tissues in the breast are diagnosed as a developed cancer. In contrast, dense-fatty should be clearly distinguished before the diagnosis of cancerous or not cancerous breast. In this paper, we develop such a system that will automatically analyze mammograms and identify significant features. For feature extraction, we develop a novel system by combining a two-dimensional discrete cosine transform (2D-DCT) and a principal component analysis (PCA) to extract a minimal feature set of mammograms to differentiate breast density. These features are fed to three classifiers: Backpropagation Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and K Nearest Neighbour (KNN). A majority voting on the outputs of different machine learning tools is also investigated to enhance the classification performance. The results show that features extracted using a combination of DCT-PCA provide a very high classification performance while using a majority voting of classifiers outputs from MLP, SVM, and KNN.
Dynamic resource allocation for improved QoS in WiMAX/WiFi integration
- Rabbani, Md, Kamruzzaman, Joarder, Gondal, Iqbal, Ahmad, Iftekhar, Hassan, Md Rafiul
- Authors: Rabbani, Md , Kamruzzaman, Joarder , Gondal, Iqbal , Ahmad, Iftekhar , Hassan, Md Rafiul
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing 2011 (Studies in Computational Intelligence series) Vol. 368, no. 2011 (2011), p. 141-156
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Wireless access technology has come a long way in its relatively short but remarkable lifetime, which has so far been led by WiFi technology. WiFi enjoys a high penetration in the market.Most of the electronic gadgets such as laptop, notepad, mobile set, etc., boast the provision ofWiFi. Currently most WiFi hotspots are connected to the Internet via wired connections (e.g., Ethernet), and the deployment cost of wired connection is high. On the other hand, since WiMAX can provide a high coverage area and transmission bandwidth, it is very suitable for the backbone networks of WiFi. WiMAX can also provide the better QoS needed for many 4G applications. WiMAX devices, however, are not as common as WiFi devices and it is also expensive to deploy aWiMAX-only infrastructure. An integrated WiMAX/WiFi architecture (using WiMAX as backhaul connection for WiFi) can support 4G applications with QoS assurance and mobility, and provide high-speed broadband services in rural, regional and urban areas while reducing the backhaul cost. WiMAX and WiFi have different MAC mechanisms to handle QoS. WiMAX MAC architecture is connection-oriented providing the platform for strong QoS control. In contrast,WiFi MAC is not connection-oriented, hence can provide only best effort services. Delivering improved QoS in an integrated WiMAX/WiFi architecture poses a serious technological challenge. The paper depicts a converged architecture of WiMAX and WiFi, and then proposes an adaptive resource distribution model for the access points. The resource distribution model ultimately allocates more time slots to those connections that need more instantaneous resources to meet QoS requirements. A dynamic splitting technique is also presented that divides the total transmission period into downlink and uplink transmission by taking the minimum data rate requirements of the connections into account. This ultimately improves the utilization of the available resources, and the QoS of the connections. Simulation results show that the proposed schemes significantly outperform the other existing resource sharing schemes, in terms of maintaining QoS of different traffic classes in an integratedWiMAX/WiFi architecture
Quantification of training load relative to match load of youth national team soccer players
- Szigeti, Gyorgy, Schuth, Gabor, Revisnyei, Peter, Pasic, Alija, Szilas, Adam, Gabbett, Tim, Pavlik, Gabor
- Authors: Szigeti, Gyorgy , Schuth, Gabor , Revisnyei, Peter , Pasic, Alija , Szilas, Adam , Gabbett, Tim , Pavlik, Gabor
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Sports Health Vol. 14, no. 1 (2022), p. 84-91
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Previous studies have examined the training load relative to match load in club settings. The aims of this study were to (1) quantify the external training load relative to match load in days before a subsequent international game and (2) examine the cumulative training load in relation to match load of U-17 national team field soccer players. Hypothesis: Volume and intensity load parameters will vary between trainings; the farthermost trainings have the highest load gradually decreasing toward the match. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Level of Evidence: Level 4. Methods: External training load data were collected from 84 youth national team players using global positioning technology between 2016 and 2020. In the national team setting, training load data were obtained from 3 days before the actual match day (MD-3, MD-2, MD-1 days) and analyzed with regard to the number of days up to the game. Volume and intensity parameters were calculated as a percentage of the subsequent match load. Results: Significant differences were found between MD-1 and MD-2, as well as between MD-1 and MD-3 for most volume parameters (P < 0.01; effect sizes [ESs] 0.68-0.99) and high-intensity distance (P < 0.002; ES 0.67 and 0.73) and maximum velocity (P < 0.002; ES 0.82) as intensity parameters. Most cumulative values were significantly different from total duration (P < 0.001, common language ES 0.80-0.96). Conclusion: The training volume gradually decreased as match day approached, with the highest volume occurring on MD-3. Intensity variables, such as maximum velocity, high-intensity accelerations, and meterage per minute were larger in MD-1 training relative to match load. Training volume was lowest in MD-1 trainings and highest in MD-3 trainings; intensity however varies between training days. Clinical Relevance: The findings of this study may help to understand the special preparational demands of international matches, highlighting the role of decreased training volume and increased intensity. © 2021 The Author(s).
- Authors: Szigeti, Gyorgy , Schuth, Gabor , Revisnyei, Peter , Pasic, Alija , Szilas, Adam , Gabbett, Tim , Pavlik, Gabor
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Sports Health Vol. 14, no. 1 (2022), p. 84-91
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Previous studies have examined the training load relative to match load in club settings. The aims of this study were to (1) quantify the external training load relative to match load in days before a subsequent international game and (2) examine the cumulative training load in relation to match load of U-17 national team field soccer players. Hypothesis: Volume and intensity load parameters will vary between trainings; the farthermost trainings have the highest load gradually decreasing toward the match. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Level of Evidence: Level 4. Methods: External training load data were collected from 84 youth national team players using global positioning technology between 2016 and 2020. In the national team setting, training load data were obtained from 3 days before the actual match day (MD-3, MD-2, MD-1 days) and analyzed with regard to the number of days up to the game. Volume and intensity parameters were calculated as a percentage of the subsequent match load. Results: Significant differences were found between MD-1 and MD-2, as well as between MD-1 and MD-3 for most volume parameters (P < 0.01; effect sizes [ESs] 0.68-0.99) and high-intensity distance (P < 0.002; ES 0.67 and 0.73) and maximum velocity (P < 0.002; ES 0.82) as intensity parameters. Most cumulative values were significantly different from total duration (P < 0.001, common language ES 0.80-0.96). Conclusion: The training volume gradually decreased as match day approached, with the highest volume occurring on MD-3. Intensity variables, such as maximum velocity, high-intensity accelerations, and meterage per minute were larger in MD-1 training relative to match load. Training volume was lowest in MD-1 trainings and highest in MD-3 trainings; intensity however varies between training days. Clinical Relevance: The findings of this study may help to understand the special preparational demands of international matches, highlighting the role of decreased training volume and increased intensity. © 2021 The Author(s).
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Tran, Khanh, Lang, Justin, Compton, Kelly, Xu, Rixing, Acheson, Alistair, Henrikson, Hannah, Kocarnik, Jonathan, Penberthy, Louise, Aali, Amirali, Abbas, Qamar, Abbasi, Behzad, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abd-Elsalam, Sherief, Abdelwahab, Ahmed, Abdoli, Gholamreza, Abdulkadir, Hanan, Abedi, Aidin, Abegaz, Kedir, Abidi, Aidin, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Absalan, Abdorrahim, Abtew, Yonas, Ali, Hiwa, Abu-Gharbieh, Eman, Nguyen, Huy, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Tran, Khanh , Lang, Justin , Compton, Kelly , Xu, Rixing , Acheson, Alistair , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Penberthy, Louise , Aali, Amirali , Abbas, Qamar , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdelwahab, Ahmed , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abdulkadir, Hanan , Abedi, Aidin , Abegaz, Kedir , Abidi, Aidin , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abtew, Yonas , Ali, Hiwa , Abu-Gharbieh, Eman , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10352 (2022), p. 563-591
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliates “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” are provided in this record**
- Authors: Tran, Khanh , Lang, Justin , Compton, Kelly , Xu, Rixing , Acheson, Alistair , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Penberthy, Louise , Aali, Amirali , Abbas, Qamar , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdelwahab, Ahmed , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abdulkadir, Hanan , Abedi, Aidin , Abegaz, Kedir , Abidi, Aidin , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abtew, Yonas , Ali, Hiwa , Abu-Gharbieh, Eman , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10352 (2022), p. 563-591
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliates “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” are provided in this record**
Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019
- Abbafati, Christiana, Machado, Daiane, Cislaghi, Beniamino, Salman, Omar, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Abbafati, Christiana , Machado, Daiane , Cislaghi, Beniamino , Salman, Omar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1135-1159
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Abbafati, Christiana , Machado, Daiane , Cislaghi, Beniamino , Salman, Omar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1135-1159
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Alvarez, Elysia, Force, Lisa, Xu, Rixing, Compton, Kelly, Lu, Dan, Henrikson, Hannah, Kocarnik, Jonathan, Harvey, James, Pennini, Alyssa, Dean, Frances, Fu, Weijia, Vargas, Martina, Keegan, Theresa, Ariffin, Hany, Barr, Ronald, Erdomaeva, Yana, Gunasekera, D. Sanjeeva, John-Akinola, Yetunde, Ketterl, Tyler, Kutluk, Tezer, Malogolowkin, Marcio, Mathur, Prashan, Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman, Ries, Lynn, Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos, Sagoyan, Garik, Sultan, Iyad, Abbasi, Behzad, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Rahman, Monsiur
- Authors: Alvarez, Elysia , Force, Lisa , Xu, Rixing , Compton, Kelly , Lu, Dan , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Harvey, James , Pennini, Alyssa , Dean, Frances , Fu, Weijia , Vargas, Martina , Keegan, Theresa , Ariffin, Hany , Barr, Ronald , Erdomaeva, Yana , Gunasekera, D. Sanjeeva , John-Akinola, Yetunde , Ketterl, Tyler , Kutluk, Tezer , Malogolowkin, Marcio , Mathur, Prashan , Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman , Ries, Lynn , Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos , Sagoyan, Garik , Sultan, Iyad , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Rahman, Monsiur
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Oncology Vol. 23, no. 1 (2022), p. 27-52
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Rahman, Monsiur" are provided in this record**
- Authors: Alvarez, Elysia , Force, Lisa , Xu, Rixing , Compton, Kelly , Lu, Dan , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Harvey, James , Pennini, Alyssa , Dean, Frances , Fu, Weijia , Vargas, Martina , Keegan, Theresa , Ariffin, Hany , Barr, Ronald , Erdomaeva, Yana , Gunasekera, D. Sanjeeva , John-Akinola, Yetunde , Ketterl, Tyler , Kutluk, Tezer , Malogolowkin, Marcio , Mathur, Prashan , Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman , Ries, Lynn , Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos , Sagoyan, Garik , Sultan, Iyad , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Rahman, Monsiur
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Oncology Vol. 23, no. 1 (2022), p. 27-52
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Rahman, Monsiur" are provided in this record**
Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
- Wu, Dongze, Jin, Yingzhao, Xing, Yuhan, Abate, Melsew, Abbasian, Mohammadreza, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin, Abdulah, Deldar, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Vida, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abuabara, Katrina, Abyadeh, Morteza, Addo, Isaac, Adeniji, Kayode, Adepoju, Abiola, Adesina, Miracle, Adnani, Qorinah, Afarideh, Mohsen, Aghamiri, Shahin, Agodi, Antonella, Agrawal, Anurag, Arriagada, Constanza, Ahmad, Antonella, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Alif, Sheikh
- Authors: Wu, Dongze , Jin, Yingzhao , Xing, Yuhan , Abate, Melsew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin , Abdulah, Deldar , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abuabara, Katrina , Abyadeh, Morteza , Addo, Isaac , Adeniji, Kayode , Adepoju, Abiola , Adesina, Miracle , Adnani, Qorinah , Afarideh, Mohsen , Aghamiri, Shahin , Agodi, Antonella , Agrawal, Anurag , Arriagada, Constanza , Ahmad, Antonella , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz , Alif, Sheikh
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: eClinicalMedicine Vol. 64, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of
- Authors: Wu, Dongze , Jin, Yingzhao , Xing, Yuhan , Abate, Melsew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin , Abdulah, Deldar , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abuabara, Katrina , Abyadeh, Morteza , Addo, Isaac , Adeniji, Kayode , Adepoju, Abiola , Adesina, Miracle , Adnani, Qorinah , Afarideh, Mohsen , Aghamiri, Shahin , Agodi, Antonella , Agrawal, Anurag , Arriagada, Constanza , Ahmad, Antonella , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz , Alif, Sheikh
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: eClinicalMedicine Vol. 64, no. (2023), p.
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of
Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17 : analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017
- Reiner, Robert, Wiens, Kirsten, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Baumann, Mathew, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Reiner, Robert , Wiens, Kirsten , Deshpande, Aniruddha , Baumann, Mathew , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 395, no. 10239 (2020), p. 1779-1801
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. ***Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Rahman” is provided in this record***
- Description: C A T Antonio reports grants and personal fees from Johnson & Johnson (Philippines), outside the submitted work. S J Dunachie reports grants from The Fleming Fund at UK Department of Health & Social Care, during the conduct of the study. M Jakovljevic reports grants from Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of The Republic of Serbia, outside the submitted work. J J Jó
- Authors: Reiner, Robert , Wiens, Kirsten , Deshpande, Aniruddha , Baumann, Mathew , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 395, no. 10239 (2020), p. 1779-1801
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. ***Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Rahman” is provided in this record***
- Description: C A T Antonio reports grants and personal fees from Johnson & Johnson (Philippines), outside the submitted work. S J Dunachie reports grants from The Fleming Fund at UK Department of Health & Social Care, during the conduct of the study. M Jakovljevic reports grants from Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of The Republic of Serbia, outside the submitted work. J J Jó
Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Ward, Joseph, Azzopardi, Peter, Francis, Kate, Santelli, John, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Ward, Joseph , Azzopardi, Peter , Francis, Kate , Santelli, John , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 398, no. 10311 (2021), p. 1593-1618
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**. Erratum: Department of Error (The Lancet (2021) 398(10311) (1593–1618), (S0140673621015464), (10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01546-4)) In figure 8 of this Article, the total deaths and proportion in each age group in 1950 were incorrect. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Feb 24, 2022. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
- Authors: Ward, Joseph , Azzopardi, Peter , Francis, Kate , Santelli, John , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 398, no. 10311 (2021), p. 1593-1618
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**. Erratum: Department of Error (The Lancet (2021) 398(10311) (1593–1618), (S0140673621015464), (10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01546-4)) In figure 8 of this Article, the total deaths and proportion in each age group in 1950 were incorrect. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Feb 24, 2022. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Kyu, Hmwe, Vongpradith, Avina, Sirota, Sarah, Novotney, Amanda, Troeger, Christopher, Doxey, Matthew, Bender, Rose, Ledesma, Jorge, Biehl, Molly, Albertson, Samuel, Frostad, Joseph, Burkart, Katrin, Bennitt, Fiona, Zhao, Jeff, Gardner, William, Hagins, Hailey, Bryazka, Dana, Dominguez, Regina, Abate, Semagn, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abdoli, Amir, Abdoli, Gholamreza, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Vida, Abegaz, Tadesse, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Nguyen, Huy, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
CRT-BIoV : a cognitive radio technique for blockchain-enabled internet of vehicles
- Rathee, Geetanjali, Ahmad, Farhan, Kurugollu, Fatih, Azad, Muhammad, Iqbal, Razi, Imran, Muhammad
- Authors: Rathee, Geetanjali , Ahmad, Farhan , Kurugollu, Fatih , Azad, Muhammad , Iqbal, Razi , Imran, Muhammad
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems Vol. 22, no. 7 (2021), p. 4005-4015
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Cognitive Radio Network (CRN) is considered as a viable solution on Internet of Vehicle (IoV) where objects equipped with cognition make decisions intelligently through the understanding of both social and physical worlds. However, the spectrum availability and data sharing/transferring among vehicles are critical improving services and driving safety metrics where the presence of Malicious Devices (MD) further degrade the network performance. Recently, a blockchain technique in CRN-based IoV has been introduced to prevent data alteration from these MD and allowing the vehicles to track both legal and illegal activities in the network. In this paper, we provide the security to IoV during spectrum sensing and information transmission using CRN by sensing the channels through a decision-making technique known as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a technique that evokes the trust of its Cognitive Users (CU) by analyzing certain predefined attributes. Further, blockchain is maintained in the network to trace every activity of stored information. The proposed mechanism is validated rigorously against several security metrics using various spectrum sensing and security parameters against a baseline solution in IoV. Extensive simulations suggest that our proposed mechanism is approximately 70% more efficient in terms of malicious nodes identification and DoS threat against the baseline mechanism. © 2000-2011 IEEE.
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Feigin, Valery, Stark, Benjamin, Johnson, Catherine, Roth, Gregory, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Feigin, Valery , Stark, Benjamin , Johnson, Catherine , Roth, Gregory , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Neurology Vol. 20, no. 10 (2021), p. 1-26
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Feigin, Valery , Stark, Benjamin , Johnson, Catherine , Roth, Gregory , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Neurology Vol. 20, no. 10 (2021), p. 1-26
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Kendrick, Parkes, Reitsma, Marissa, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abdoli, Amir, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Kendrick, Parkes , Reitsma, Marissa , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abdoli, Amir , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Public Health Vol. 6, no. 7 (2021), p. e482-e499
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (−0·94% [–1·72 to –0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. . **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record**
- Authors: Kendrick, Parkes , Reitsma, Marissa , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abdoli, Amir , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Public Health Vol. 6, no. 7 (2021), p. e482-e499
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (−0·94% [–1·72 to –0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. . **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record**