Optimal solar and energy storage system sizing for behind the meter applications
- Arteaga, Juan, Farrokhabadi, Mostafa, Amjady, Nima, Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Authors: Arteaga, Juan , Farrokhabadi, Mostafa , Amjady, Nima , Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy Vol. 14, no. 1 (2023), p. 537-549
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- Description: In this paper, we propose an optimal sizing model for a solar plus energy storage (PV-ESS) system for behind the meter applications. A dynamic optimization algorithm is proposed that maximizes the net worth of a project; the method can account for decreasing technology costs in the future and defer some of the investment costs. Two kinds of uncertainties are considered and mitigated according to their frequency of occurrence and forecast accuracy. The proposed optimization model is decomposed and structured in such a way that it can be efficiently solved using parallel computation. The simulation results provide evidence of the algorithm's ability to optimally size and time the investment in a PV-ESS system so that the total project cost is minimized. © 2010-2012 IEEE.
Maximizing the utilization of existing grids for renewable energy integration
- Ranjbar, Hossein, Kazemi, Mostafa, Amjady, Nima, Zareipour, Hamidreza, Hosseini, Seyed
- Authors: Ranjbar, Hossein , Kazemi, Mostafa , Amjady, Nima , Zareipour, Hamidreza , Hosseini, Seyed
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Renewable energy Vol. 189, no. (2022), p. 618-629
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- Description: This paper presents a new model to maximize the utilization of existing transmission system infrastructure by optimally sizing and siting the future developments of variable renewable energy sources (VRES). The model tries to maximize the integration of VRES in power systems with minimum expected energy curtailment without relying on new investments in the transmission systems. The proposed model is formulated as a linear stochastic programming optimization problem where VRES output scenarios are generated such that their spatio-temporal correlations are maintained. The Progressive Hedging Algorithm (PHA) with bundled scenarios is utilized to solve the proposed model for large-scale cases. The proposed model is tested on the modified Garver 6-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems, and its results are compared with the results of the conventional VRES integration model. These results and comparisons illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of maximizing VRES integration and enhancing computational performance.
A new feature selection technique for load and price forecast of electrical power systems
- Abedinia, Oveis, Amjady, Nima, Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Authors: Abedinia, Oveis , Amjady, Nima , Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE transactions on power systems Vol. 32, no. 1 (2017), p. 62-74
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- Description: Load and price forecasts are necessary for optimal operation planning in competitive electricity markets. However, most of the load and price forecast methods suffer from lack of an efficient feature selection technique with the ability of modeling the nonlinearities and interacting features of the forecast processes. In this paper, a new feature selection method is presented. An important contribution of the proposed method is modeling interaction in addition to relevancy and redundancy, based on information-theoretic criteria, for feature selection. Another main contribution of the paper is proposing a hybrid filter-wrapper approach. The filter part selects a minimum subset of the most informative features by considering relevancy, redundancy, and interaction of the candidate inputs in a coordinated manner. The wrapper part fine-tunes the settings of the composite filter.
“Paramedics are only a driver,” the lived experience of Iranian paramedics from patient handover : a qualitative study
- Hassankhani, Hadi, Haririan, Hamidreza, Porter, Joanne, Alvandi, Abraham
- Authors: Hassankhani, Hadi , Haririan, Hamidreza , Porter, Joanne , Alvandi, Abraham
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Research Development in Nursing and Midwifery Vol. 20, no. 1 (2023), p. 40-44
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- Description: Background: Patient handover in the emergency department (ED) is a 2-way communication process between the paramedics and in-hospital emergency personnel, which can result in miscommunication and delivery challenges. This study aimed to explore the lived experience of paramedics on patient handover to the ED. Methods: Over a period of 5 months, an interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) was used to explore the lived experiences of 15 paramedics in Tabriz, Iran. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the emergency medical stations using the Smith approach for data collection and analysis. The researcher used 4 criteria to ensure rigor, including credibility, dependability, confirmability, and transferability, according to Lincoln and Guba. Results: Three main themes emerged from the data analysis, including “the hole of hope,” “the boring issues,” and “paramedics are only a driver.” A further 11 sub-themes emerged under the main themes. Conclusion: The highlighted issues that need to be considered during the process are the presence of staff in front of the ED's door to welcome the patient, removal of structural defects and defective hospital equipment, the presence of medical supplies in emergency triage to prevent the paramedics from stumbling, and listening to paramedics by physicians and nurses to obtain the patients’ history. © The author(s).
- Authors: Hassankhani, Hadi , Haririan, Hamidreza , Porter, Joanne , Alvandi, Abraham
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Research Development in Nursing and Midwifery Vol. 20, no. 1 (2023), p. 40-44
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- Description: Background: Patient handover in the emergency department (ED) is a 2-way communication process between the paramedics and in-hospital emergency personnel, which can result in miscommunication and delivery challenges. This study aimed to explore the lived experience of paramedics on patient handover to the ED. Methods: Over a period of 5 months, an interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) was used to explore the lived experiences of 15 paramedics in Tabriz, Iran. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the emergency medical stations using the Smith approach for data collection and analysis. The researcher used 4 criteria to ensure rigor, including credibility, dependability, confirmability, and transferability, according to Lincoln and Guba. Results: Three main themes emerged from the data analysis, including “the hole of hope,” “the boring issues,” and “paramedics are only a driver.” A further 11 sub-themes emerged under the main themes. Conclusion: The highlighted issues that need to be considered during the process are the presence of staff in front of the ED's door to welcome the patient, removal of structural defects and defective hospital equipment, the presence of medical supplies in emergency triage to prevent the paramedics from stumbling, and listening to paramedics by physicians and nurses to obtain the patients’ history. © The author(s).
Cultural aspects of death notification following cardiopulmonary resuscitation
- Hassankhani, Hadi, Haririan, Hamidreza, Porter, Joanne, Heaston, Sondra
- Authors: Hassankhani, Hadi , Haririan, Hamidreza , Porter, Joanne , Heaston, Sondra
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Advanced Nursing Vol. 74, no. 7 (2018), p. 1564-1572
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- Description: Aims: To explore the lived experience of resuscitation team members involved in notifying family members when a patient dies following a resuscitation event in an Iranian cultural context. Background: Death notification to the family is indeed a difficult and an important issue for resuscitation team members. The way health professionals deliver news to family members should incorporate elements of sensitivity, timing and adequate clinical explanations with emphasis on the efforts made by the professionals during the resuscitation. Design: A phenomenological study. Method: Over a period of 5 months (June 2016–November 2016) eleven nurses and six physicians were interviewed using an in-depth interview process applying Van Manen's hermeneutic phenomenological approach for data collection and analysis. The participants were recruited from six tertiary hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Findings: There were two main themes that emerged from the data analysis including: “contributing factors on the impact of notification” and “notification strategies”. A further 13 subthemes emerged under the main themes. Several culturally related issues emerged with the participants feeling more comfortable informing male rather than female relatives about the death of the patient following a resuscitation. Conclusions: Notifying family members of a patient's death is a stressful and culturally sensitive task for the resuscitation team members. The nature of the patient's presenting condition, together with the various resuscitation interventions can result in relatives responding unpredictably. Providing health professionals with the appropriate training and skills to effectively communicate with family members will ensure that the families’ level of preparedness, understanding and cultural beliefs are taken into consideration. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
- Hassankhani, Hadi, Haririan, Hamidreza, Jafari, Arezoo, Porter, Joanne, O’Brien, Frances, Feizollahzadeh, Hossein
- Authors: Hassankhani, Hadi , Haririan, Hamidreza , Jafari, Arezoo , Porter, Joanne , O’Brien, Frances , Feizollahzadeh, Hossein
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Clinical Nursing Research Vol. 30, no. 2 (2021), p. 193-199
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- Description: Background: Patient education requires modification as it is either nonexistent or implemented irregularly or inadequately. Study’s purpose: To examine the learning needs of patients with coronary heart disease from the perspective of the patients, their relatives, and health care providers. Methodology: The cross-sectional, comparative study conducted at two cardiac hospitals of Tabriz and Ardebil, Iran from May 2016 to September 2016.Through convenience sampling perceptions of 137 patients, 137 relatives, 33 cardiologists, and 108 nurses were compared using the Cardiac Learning Need Inventory questionnaire. Major results: The most important learning needs of patients from the perspective of physicians, nurses, and patients’ relatives was information about risk factors. In contrast, patient’s perceived information about medication to be their most important learning need. Clinical implications: Patients’ perceptions of their educational needs was different from the perceptions of physicians, nurses, and relatives of the patients. Therefore, when planning patient education a comprehensive review of the patients’ learning needs is required in order to develop a suitable education plan by prioritizing patients’ educational needs. © The Author(s) 2020.
- Haririan, Hamidreza, Rahmani, Azad, Porter, Joanne, Heidarzadeh, Mehdi, Azadi, Arman
- Authors: Haririan, Hamidreza , Rahmani, Azad , Porter, Joanne , Heidarzadeh, Mehdi , Azadi, Arman
- Date: 2021
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Nurse Education in Practice Vol. 54, no. (2021), p.
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- Description: Aim: The number of countries where nurses are allowed to prescribe has increased over the past two decades. Nursing students’ self-efficacy has the main impact on their clinical and cognitive skills. The aim of this study is to determine nursing students’ attitudes and preparedness for nurse prescribing and its relationship with their perceived self-efficacy. Design: The descriptive-correlational study Methods: This study was conducted at five Nursing and Midwifery schools of Tabriz, Ardebil, Ilam, Ramsar, and Mashhad, Iran from March to July 2018. Through random sampling 250 undergraduate nursing students from the different geographical areas of Iran were selected. The research tool consisted of three parts including demographic information, nurse prescribing questionnaire, and a questionnaire on self-efficacy in patient care. Results: Nursing students had a positive attitudes and relatively high levels of preparedness for nurse prescribing. However, near to half of the participants (48.4%) mentioned that they have not good knowledge of pharmacology. Also there was a significant positive correlation between the students’ self-efficacy and their attitudes and preparedness to nurse prescribing (p < 0.001, rs= 0.467;p = 0.00, rs= 0.633). Conclusions: Given the nursing students’ positive attitude to and their preparedness for nurse prescribing, it is possible to make them more prepared for this new role by increasing their pharmacological knowledge and improving their accountability, management, and leadership skills. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Joanne Porter” is provided in this record**
Energy storage as a service: Optimal pricing for transmission congestion relief
- Arteaga, Juan, Zareipour, Hamidreza, Amjady, Nima
- Authors: Arteaga, Juan , Zareipour, Hamidreza , Amjady, Nima
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE open access journal of power and energy Vol. 7, no. (2020), p. 514-523
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- Description: This paper focuses on pricing Energy Storage as a Service (ESaaS) for Transmission congestion relief (TCR). We consider a merchant storage facility that competes in an electricity market to trade energy and ancillary services on a day-to-day basis. The facility also has the opportunity to provide a firm TCR service to a regional network operator under a long-term contract. Providing the additional TCR service would impose limitations on the facility's ability to fully harvest daily market trade opportunities. Thus, we model the opportunity costs associated with the TCR service and use it in a hybrid cost-value customized pricing technique to determine the risk-constrained optimal price of ESaaS for TCR. Given the long-term nature of the commitment to provide the TCR service, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metric to mitigate the long-term financial risks faced by the facility. The proposed pricing strategy enables the storage owner to estimate the additional financial gains and the associated risks that would likely result from adding the new service to its operation. Numerical simulations are provided to support the proposed methodology.
A new multi-resolution closed-loop wind power forecasting method
- Nejati, Maryam, Amjady, Nima, Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Authors: Nejati, Maryam , Amjady, Nima , Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy Vol. 14, no. 4 (2023), p. 2079-2091
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- Description: By the increasing number and size of wind farms, wind generation forecasting has become a basic requirement for their connection to the power grid; otherwise, power system operators and electricity market participants cannot make the right decisions and may incur significant costs and penalties. In this paper, a new multi-resolution closed-loop wind power forecasting method with a difference signal feedback loop is proposed. Within the proposed method, wind power is initially predicted in two different resolutions (such as with hourly and sub-hourly time steps) by two low/high-resolution pre-predictors and then the inconsistency between their predictions is measured through the difference signal. The generated difference signal is used as a guide for the two low/high-resolution wind power post-predictors. If their wind power forecasts are inconsistent, the difference signal is updated and used as the feedback for the low/high-resolution post-predictors. This closed-loop forecasting-updating process is iterated until the post-predictors reach consistent results. To evaluate the performance of the proposed multi-resolution closed-loop method, it is tested on two different real-world wind farms and the results are compared with the results of several other widely used/recently published wind power forecast methods using various error metrics and different forecast horizons. © 2010-2012 IEEE.
A new hybrid stochastic-robust optimization approach for self-scheduling of generation companies
- Dehghan, Shahab, Amjady, Nima, Vatani, Behdad, Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Authors: Dehghan, Shahab , Amjady, Nima , Vatani, Behdad , Zareipour, Hamidreza
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International transactions on electrical energy systems Vol. 26, no. 6 (2016), p. 1244-1259
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- Description: Summary This paper presents a new mixed‐integer linear programming model for day‐ahead self‐scheduling of generating companies integrating the underlying ideas of robust optimization (RO) and stochastic programming (SP) to cope with the uncertainties of electricity market prices and availability/unavailability of units. The proposed hybrid approach models the uncertainty of electricity market prices by bounded intervals instead of probability distributions, aiming to derive a more tractable optimization model. Conservatism against uncertain electricity market prices is adjusted by a certain parameter named budget of robustness. Also, a renovated Markov chain approach considering the chance of return (i.e., return rate) for failed units, in addition to forced outage rate of units, in each hour of the scheduling period is introduced in this paper to produce a set of scenarios modeling the availability/unavailability of units. Therefore, the proposed hybrid self‐scheduling approach benefits from both the tractability of RO and modeling accuracy of SP. The proposed approach is implemented on IEEE 118‐bus test system under different circumstances to illustrate its effectiveness compared to deterministic self‐scheduling model as well as the models only employing RO or SP. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Nurses, physicians and patients' knowledge and attitudes about nurse prescribing
- Haririan, Hamidreza, Seresht, Deniz Manie, Hassankhani, Hadi, Porter, Joanne E., Wytenbroek, Lydia
- Authors: Haririan, Hamidreza , Seresht, Deniz Manie , Hassankhani, Hadi , Porter, Joanne E. , Wytenbroek, Lydia
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Nursing Vol. 21, no. 1 (2022), p. 112-112
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- Description: One of the roles that nurses have acquired in recent years is the role of prescribing. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of critical care nurses, physicians and patients about nurse prescribing. A descriptive cross-sectional study with the participation of 152 nurses, 53 physicians and 75 patients was carried out. Participants were selected by stratified random sampling from the critical care units of six hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Demographics and participants' knowledge and attitudes about nurse prescribing questionnaires were used to collect data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS-22 software. The mean scores of total knowledge about nurse prescribing in nurses, patients and physicians' were 15.41 ± 1.85,16.45 ± 2.31, 14.74 ± 1.7 respectively (from a range of 10 -20), and the mean score of knowledge by physicians was significantly higher than others (P = 0.000) and they had more knowledge about nurse prescribing. The mean scores of the attitudes towards nurse prescribing in nurses, physicians and patients were 40.62 ± 3.68, 37.98 ± 5.92 and 39.38 ± 4.39 respectively (from a range of 10 -50). However, the total mean score of attitudes among nurses was significantly higher than others (P = 0.000) and nurses had more positive attitudes toward prescribing. The results showed that the participants have a good understanding and attitudes toward nurse prescribing. Nurse prescribing as a new duty and authority can be considered in providing more effective care by specialist nurses. The results of this study can also be used in the future planning of health policy for nurses to have the right to prescribe and ultimately improve the quality of patient care.
- Authors: Haririan, Hamidreza , Seresht, Deniz Manie , Hassankhani, Hadi , Porter, Joanne E. , Wytenbroek, Lydia
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Nursing Vol. 21, no. 1 (2022), p. 112-112
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: One of the roles that nurses have acquired in recent years is the role of prescribing. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of critical care nurses, physicians and patients about nurse prescribing. A descriptive cross-sectional study with the participation of 152 nurses, 53 physicians and 75 patients was carried out. Participants were selected by stratified random sampling from the critical care units of six hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Demographics and participants' knowledge and attitudes about nurse prescribing questionnaires were used to collect data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS-22 software. The mean scores of total knowledge about nurse prescribing in nurses, patients and physicians' were 15.41 ± 1.85,16.45 ± 2.31, 14.74 ± 1.7 respectively (from a range of 10 -20), and the mean score of knowledge by physicians was significantly higher than others (P = 0.000) and they had more knowledge about nurse prescribing. The mean scores of the attitudes towards nurse prescribing in nurses, physicians and patients were 40.62 ± 3.68, 37.98 ± 5.92 and 39.38 ± 4.39 respectively (from a range of 10 -50). However, the total mean score of attitudes among nurses was significantly higher than others (P = 0.000) and nurses had more positive attitudes toward prescribing. The results showed that the participants have a good understanding and attitudes toward nurse prescribing. Nurse prescribing as a new duty and authority can be considered in providing more effective care by specialist nurses. The results of this study can also be used in the future planning of health policy for nurses to have the right to prescribe and ultimately improve the quality of patient care.
Family support liaison in the witnessed resuscitation : A phenomenology study
- Hassankhani, Hadi, Zamanzade, Vahid, Rahmani, Azad, Haririan, Hamidreza, Porter, Joanne
- Authors: Hassankhani, Hadi , Zamanzade, Vahid , Rahmani, Azad , Haririan, Hamidreza , Porter, Joanne
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International Journal of Nursing Studies Vol. 74, no. (2017), p. 95-100
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- Description: Background: Family-witnessed resuscitation remains controversial among clinicians from implementation to practice and there are a number of countries, such as Iran, where that is considered a low priority. Objective: To explore the lived experience of resuscitation team members with the presence of the patient's family during resuscitation. Settings: The emergency departments and critical care units of 6 tertiary hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Participants: There were potentially 380 nurses and physicians working in the emergency departments and acute care settings of 6 tertiary hospitals in Tabriz. A purposive sample of these nurses and physicians was used to recruit participants who had at least 2 years of experience, had experienced an actual family witnessed resuscitation event, and wanted to participate. The sample size was determined according to data saturation. Data collection ended when the data were considered rich and varied enough to illuminate the phenomenon, and no new themes emerged following the interview of 12 nurses and 8 physicians. Methods: Semi-structured, face-to-face interviews were held with the participants over a period of 6 months (April 2015 to September 2015), and Van Manen's method of data analysis was adopted. Results: Three main themes emerged from the data analysis, including 'Futile resuscitation', 'Family support liaison', and 'Influence on team's performance'. A further 9 sub-themes emerged under the 3 main themes, which included 'futile resuscitation in end-stage cancer patients', 'when a patient dies', 'young patients', 'care of the elderly', 'accountable person', 'family supporter', 'no influence', 'positive influence', and 'negative influence'. Conclusions: Participants noted both positive and negative experiences of having family members present during cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Welltrained and expert resuscitation team members are less likely to be stressed in the presence of family. A family support liaison would act to decrease family anxiety levels and to de-escalate any potentially aggressive person during the resuscitation. It is recommended that an experienced health care professional be designated to be responsible for explaining the process of resuscitation to the patient's family.
- Description: Bacicgrottral: Family-witnessed resuscitation remains controversial among clinicians from implementation to practice and there are a number of countries, such as Iran, where that is considered a low priority. Objective: To explore the lived experience of resuscitation team members with the presence of the patient's family during resuscitation. Settings: The emergency departments and critical care units of 6 tertiary hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Participants: There were potentially 380 nurses and physicians working in the emergency departments and acute care settings of 6 tertiary hospitals in Tabriz. A purposive sample of these nurses and physicians was used to recruit participants who had at least 2 years of experience, had experienced an actual family witnessed resuscitation event, and wanted to participate. The sample size was determined according to data saturation. Data collection ended when the data were considered rich and varied enough to illuminate the phenomenon, and no new themes emerged following the interview of 12 nurses and 8 physicians. Methods: Semi-structured, face-to-face interviews were held with the participants over a period of 6 months (April 2015 to September 2015), and Van Manen's method of data analysis was adopted. Results: Three main themes emerged from the data analysis, including 'Futile resuscitation', 'Family support liaison', and 'Influence on team's performance'. A further 9 sub-themes emerged under the 3 main themes, which included 'futile resuscitation in end-stage cancer patients', 'when a patient dies', 'young patients', 'care of the elderly', 'accountable person', 'family supporter', 'no influence', 'positive influence', and 'negative influence'. Conclusions: Participants noted both positive and negative experiences of having family members present during cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Welltrained and expert resuscitation team members are less likely to be stressed in the presence of family. A family support liaison would act to decrease family anxiety levels and to de-escalate any potentially aggressive person during the resuscitation. It is recommended that an experienced health care professional be designated to be responsible for explaining the process of resuscitation to the patient's family.
A brief guide to multi-objective reinforcement learning and planning JAAMAS track
- Hayes, Conor, Bargiacchi, Eugenio, Källström, Johan, Macfarlane, Matthew, Reymond, Mathieu, Verstraeten, Timothy, Zintgraf, Luisa, Dazeley, Richard, Heintz, Frederik, Howley, Enda, Irissappane, Aathirai, Mannion, Patrick, Nowé, Ann, Ramos, Gabriel, Restelli, Marcello, Vamplew, Peter, Roijers, Diederik
- Authors: Hayes, Conor , Bargiacchi, Eugenio , Källström, Johan , Macfarlane, Matthew , Reymond, Mathieu , Verstraeten, Timothy , Zintgraf, Luisa , Dazeley, Richard , Heintz, Frederik , Howley, Enda , Irissappane, Aathirai , Mannion, Patrick , Nowé, Ann , Ramos, Gabriel , Restelli, Marcello , Vamplew, Peter , Roijers, Diederik
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Conference paper
- Relation: 22nd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, AAMAS 2023, London, 29 May to 2 June 2023, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, AAMAS Vol. 2023-May, p. 1988-1990
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- Description: Real-world sequential decision-making tasks are usually complex, and require trade-offs between multiple - often conflicting - objectives. However, the majority of research in reinforcement learning (RL) and decision-theoretic planning assumes a single objective, or that multiple objectives can be handled via a predefined weighted sum over the objectives. Such approaches may oversimplify the underlying problem, and produce suboptimal results. This extended abstract outlines the limitations of using a semi-blind iterative process to solve multi-objective decision making problems. Our extended paper [4], serves as a guide for the application of explicitly multi-objective methods to difficult problems. © 2023 International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved.
- Authors: Hayes, Conor , Bargiacchi, Eugenio , Källström, Johan , Macfarlane, Matthew , Reymond, Mathieu , Verstraeten, Timothy , Zintgraf, Luisa , Dazeley, Richard , Heintz, Frederik , Howley, Enda , Irissappane, Aathirai , Mannion, Patrick , Nowé, Ann , Ramos, Gabriel , Restelli, Marcello , Vamplew, Peter , Roijers, Diederik
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Conference paper
- Relation: 22nd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, AAMAS 2023, London, 29 May to 2 June 2023, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, AAMAS Vol. 2023-May, p. 1988-1990
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Real-world sequential decision-making tasks are usually complex, and require trade-offs between multiple - often conflicting - objectives. However, the majority of research in reinforcement learning (RL) and decision-theoretic planning assumes a single objective, or that multiple objectives can be handled via a predefined weighted sum over the objectives. Such approaches may oversimplify the underlying problem, and produce suboptimal results. This extended abstract outlines the limitations of using a semi-blind iterative process to solve multi-objective decision making problems. Our extended paper [4], serves as a guide for the application of explicitly multi-objective methods to difficult problems. © 2023 International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved.
Nursing and midwifery students’ mental health status and intention to leave during Covid-19 pandemic
- Haririan, Hamidreza, Samadi, Parisa, Lalezari, Elnaz, Habibzadeh, Sajad, Porter, Joanne
- Authors: Haririan, Hamidreza , Samadi, Parisa , Lalezari, Elnaz , Habibzadeh, Sajad , Porter, Joanne
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: SAGE Open Nursing Vol. 8, no. (2022), p.
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- Description: Introduction: COVID-19 has not only affected the physical health of people but it has also had a major impact on their mental health. Objective: To investigate the nursing, midwifery, and operating room students’ mental health and intention to leave during COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the nursing and midwifery school of Tabriz, Iran. Over a period of three months (February–May 2021) and through random sampling, 284 students were selected. The research tool consisted of three parts including demographic information, Depression Anxiety Stress scales, and a questionnaire on intention to leave. Results: More than 20% of the students experienced some degrees of depression, anxiety, and stress. Nearly one-third of participants mentioned a high level of intention to leave. Nursing students had a higher level of a turnover tendency than other students (p =.004). Male students and who experienced moderate to high level of depression displayed greater intention to leave (p =.005). Conclusion: Students suffered from some degrees of stress, anxiety, and depression during the COVID-19, and it strengthened the participants’ intention to leave. Relevant authorities are recommended to improve mental health of the students by providing psychological counseling sessions, reducing their direct contact with patients, and providing personal protective equipment. © The Author(s) 2022.
Nursing and midwifery students’ mental health status and intention to leave during Covid-19 pandemic
- Authors: Haririan, Hamidreza , Samadi, Parisa , Lalezari, Elnaz , Habibzadeh, Sajad , Porter, Joanne
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: SAGE Open Nursing Vol. 8, no. (2022), p.
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- Description: Introduction: COVID-19 has not only affected the physical health of people but it has also had a major impact on their mental health. Objective: To investigate the nursing, midwifery, and operating room students’ mental health and intention to leave during COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the nursing and midwifery school of Tabriz, Iran. Over a period of three months (February–May 2021) and through random sampling, 284 students were selected. The research tool consisted of three parts including demographic information, Depression Anxiety Stress scales, and a questionnaire on intention to leave. Results: More than 20% of the students experienced some degrees of depression, anxiety, and stress. Nearly one-third of participants mentioned a high level of intention to leave. Nursing students had a higher level of a turnover tendency than other students (p =.004). Male students and who experienced moderate to high level of depression displayed greater intention to leave (p =.005). Conclusion: Students suffered from some degrees of stress, anxiety, and depression during the COVID-19, and it strengthened the participants’ intention to leave. Relevant authorities are recommended to improve mental health of the students by providing psychological counseling sessions, reducing their direct contact with patients, and providing personal protective equipment. © The Author(s) 2022.
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
- Wiens, Kirsten, Lindstedt, Paulina, Blacker, Brigette, Johnson, Kimberly, Baumann, Mathew, Schaeffer, Lauren, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abegaz, Kedir, Abejie, Ayenew, Abreu, Lucas, Abrigo, Michael, Abualhasan, Ahmed, Accrombessi, Manfred, Acharya, Dilaram, Adabi, Maryam, Adamu, Abdu, Adebayo, Oladimeji, Adedoyin, Rufus, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Adhena, Beyene, Afarideh, Mohsen, Ahmad, Sohail, Ahmadi, Keivan, Ahmed, Anwar, Ahmed, Muktar, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Wiens, Kirsten , Lindstedt, Paulina , Blacker, Brigette , Johnson, Kimberly , Baumann, Mathew , Schaeffer, Lauren , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelalim, Ahmed , Abdollahpour, Ibrahim , Abegaz, Kedir , Abejie, Ayenew , Abreu, Lucas , Abrigo, Michael , Abualhasan, Ahmed , Accrombessi, Manfred , Acharya, Dilaram , Adabi, Maryam , Adamu, Abdu , Adebayo, Oladimeji , Adedoyin, Rufus , Adekanmbi, Victor , Adetokunboh, Olatunji , Adhena, Beyene , Afarideh, Mohsen , Ahmad, Sohail , Ahmadi, Keivan , Ahmed, Anwar , Ahmed, Muktar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Global Health Vol. 8, no. 8 (2020), p. e1038-e1060
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Wiens, Kirsten , Lindstedt, Paulina , Blacker, Brigette , Johnson, Kimberly , Baumann, Mathew , Schaeffer, Lauren , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdelalim, Ahmed , Abdollahpour, Ibrahim , Abegaz, Kedir , Abejie, Ayenew , Abreu, Lucas , Abrigo, Michael , Abualhasan, Ahmed , Accrombessi, Manfred , Acharya, Dilaram , Adabi, Maryam , Adamu, Abdu , Adebayo, Oladimeji , Adedoyin, Rufus , Adekanmbi, Victor , Adetokunboh, Olatunji , Adhena, Beyene , Afarideh, Mohsen , Ahmad, Sohail , Ahmadi, Keivan , Ahmed, Anwar , Ahmed, Muktar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Global Health Vol. 8, no. 8 (2020), p. e1038-e1060
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Tran, Khanh, Lang, Justin, Compton, Kelly, Xu, Rixing, Acheson, Alistair, Henrikson, Hannah, Kocarnik, Jonathan, Penberthy, Louise, Aali, Amirali, Abbas, Qamar, Abbasi, Behzad, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abd-Elsalam, Sherief, Abdelwahab, Ahmed, Abdoli, Gholamreza, Abdulkadir, Hanan, Abedi, Aidin, Abegaz, Kedir, Abidi, Aidin, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Absalan, Abdorrahim, Abtew, Yonas, Ali, Hiwa, Abu-Gharbieh, Eman, Nguyen, Huy, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Tran, Khanh , Lang, Justin , Compton, Kelly , Xu, Rixing , Acheson, Alistair , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Penberthy, Louise , Aali, Amirali , Abbas, Qamar , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdelwahab, Ahmed , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abdulkadir, Hanan , Abedi, Aidin , Abegaz, Kedir , Abidi, Aidin , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abtew, Yonas , Ali, Hiwa , Abu-Gharbieh, Eman , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10352 (2022), p. 563-591
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliates “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” are provided in this record**
- Authors: Tran, Khanh , Lang, Justin , Compton, Kelly , Xu, Rixing , Acheson, Alistair , Henrikson, Hannah , Kocarnik, Jonathan , Penberthy, Louise , Aali, Amirali , Abbas, Qamar , Abbasi, Behzad , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abd-Elsalam, Sherief , Abdelwahab, Ahmed , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abdulkadir, Hanan , Abedi, Aidin , Abegaz, Kedir , Abidi, Aidin , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Absalan, Abdorrahim , Abtew, Yonas , Ali, Hiwa , Abu-Gharbieh, Eman , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 400, no. 10352 (2022), p. 563-591
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliates “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” are provided in this record**
Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019
- Abbafati, Christiana, Machado, Daiane, Cislaghi, Beniamino, Salman, Omar, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Abbafati, Christiana , Machado, Daiane , Cislaghi, Beniamino , Salman, Omar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1135-1159
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Abbafati, Christiana , Machado, Daiane , Cislaghi, Beniamino , Salman, Omar , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 396, no. 10258 (2020), p. 1135-1159
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Kyu, Hmwe, Vongpradith, Avina, Sirota, Sarah, Novotney, Amanda, Troeger, Christopher, Doxey, Matthew, Bender, Rose, Ledesma, Jorge, Biehl, Molly, Albertson, Samuel, Frostad, Joseph, Burkart, Katrin, Bennitt, Fiona, Zhao, Jeff, Gardner, William, Hagins, Hailey, Bryazka, Dana, Dominguez, Regina, Abate, Semagn, Abdelmasseh, Michael, Abdoli, Amir, Abdoli, Gholamreza, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Vida, Abegaz, Tadesse, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Nguyen, Huy, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Kyu, Hmwe , Vongpradith, Avina , Sirota, Sarah , Novotney, Amanda , Troeger, Christopher , Doxey, Matthew , Bender, Rose , Ledesma, Jorge , Biehl, Molly , Albertson, Samuel , Frostad, Joseph , Burkart, Katrin , Bennitt, Fiona , Zhao, Jeff , Gardner, William , Hagins, Hailey , Bryazka, Dana , Dominguez, Regina , Abate, Semagn , Abdelmasseh, Michael , Abdoli, Amir , Abdoli, Gholamreza , Abedi, Aidin , Abedi, Vida , Abegaz, Tadesse , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Nguyen, Huy , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol. 22, no. 11 (2022), p. 1626-1647
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting well eing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Huy Nguyen” is provided in this record**
Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
- Authors: Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Lancet Global Health Vol. 8, no. 9 (2020), p. E1162-E1185
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the Federation University Australia affiliate is provided in this record**
- Description: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation CGIAR
- Authors: Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Lancet Global Health Vol. 8, no. 9 (2020), p. E1162-E1185
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the Federation University Australia affiliate is provided in this record**
- Description: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation CGIAR
Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Ong, Kanyin, Stafford, Lauryn, McLaughlin, Susan, Boyko, Edward, Vollset, Stein, Smith, Amanda, Dalton, Bronte, Duprey, Joe, Cruz, Jessica, Hagins, Hailey, Lindstedt, Paulina, Aali, Amirali, Abate, Yohannes, Abate, Melew, Abbasian, Mohammadreza, Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, ElHafeez, Samar, Abd-Rabu, Rami, Abdulah, Deldar, Abdullah, Abu, Abedi, Vida, Abidi, Hassan, Aboagye, Richard, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie, Abu-Zaid, Ahmed, Adane, Tigist, Adane, Denberu, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Authors: Ong, Kanyin , Stafford, Lauryn , McLaughlin, Susan , Boyko, Edward , Vollset, Stein , Smith, Amanda , Dalton, Bronte , Duprey, Joe , Cruz, Jessica , Hagins, Hailey , Lindstedt, Paulina , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Yohannes , Abate, Melew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , ElHafeez, Samar , Abd-Rabu, Rami , Abdulah, Deldar , Abdullah, Abu , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie , Abu-Zaid, Ahmed , Adane, Tigist , Adane, Denberu , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 402, no. 10397 (2023), p. 203-234
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disea e course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Ong, Kanyin , Stafford, Lauryn , McLaughlin, Susan , Boyko, Edward , Vollset, Stein , Smith, Amanda , Dalton, Bronte , Duprey, Joe , Cruz, Jessica , Hagins, Hailey , Lindstedt, Paulina , Aali, Amirali , Abate, Yohannes , Abate, Melew , Abbasian, Mohammadreza , Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab , Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen , ElHafeez, Samar , Abd-Rabu, Rami , Abdulah, Deldar , Abdullah, Abu , Abedi, Vida , Abidi, Hassan , Aboagye, Richard , Abolhassani, Hassan , Abu-Gharbieh, Eshetie , Abu-Zaid, Ahmed , Adane, Tigist , Adane, Denberu , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: The Lancet Vol. 402, no. 10397 (2023), p. 203-234
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disea e course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman” is provided in this record**