North Indian ocean tropical cyclone activity in CMIP5 experiments : future projections using a model-independent detection and tracking scheme
- Bell, Samuel, Chand, Savin, Tory, Kevin, Ye, Hua, Turville, Christopher
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Tory, Kevin , Ye, Hua , Turville, Christopher
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International Journal of Climatology Vol. 40, no. 15 (2020), p. 6492-6505
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) projection results to different models and the detection and tracking scheme used is well established. In this study, future climate projections of TC activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) are assessed with a model- and basin-independent detection and tracking scheme. The scheme is applied to selected models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Most models underestimated the frequency of early season (April–June) TCs and contained genesis biases equatorward of ~7.5°N in comparison to the historical records. TC tracks detected in reanalysis and model data were input to a clustering algorithm simultaneously, with two clusters in the Arabian Sea and two in the Bay of Bengal (k = 4). Projection results indicated a slight decrease of overall TC genesis frequency in the NIO, with an increase of TC genesis frequency in the Arabian Sea (30–64%) and a decrease in the Bay of Bengal (22–43%), consistent between clusters in each of these sub-regions. These changes were largely due to changes in the pre-monsoon season (April–June) where Bay of Bengal TCs significantly decreased, consistent with changes in vertical ascent. Northern Arabian Sea TCs significantly increased during the pre-monsoon season, consistent with changes in vertical wind shear and relative humidity. There was a projected increase of TC frequency in the post-monsoon season (October–December), consistent with changes in relative humidity and vertical ascent, although not all clusters followed this trend; noting a different response in the southern Bay of Bengal. In turn, these projections caused changes to the climate averaged TC track density, including a decrease (up to 2 TCs per decade) affecting the eastern coast of India and a small increase (up to 0.5 TCs per decade) affecting eastern Africa, Oman and Yemen. © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Tory, Kevin , Ye, Hua , Turville, Christopher
- Date: 2020
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: International Journal of Climatology Vol. 40, no. 15 (2020), p. 6492-6505
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) projection results to different models and the detection and tracking scheme used is well established. In this study, future climate projections of TC activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) are assessed with a model- and basin-independent detection and tracking scheme. The scheme is applied to selected models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Most models underestimated the frequency of early season (April–June) TCs and contained genesis biases equatorward of ~7.5°N in comparison to the historical records. TC tracks detected in reanalysis and model data were input to a clustering algorithm simultaneously, with two clusters in the Arabian Sea and two in the Bay of Bengal (k = 4). Projection results indicated a slight decrease of overall TC genesis frequency in the NIO, with an increase of TC genesis frequency in the Arabian Sea (30–64%) and a decrease in the Bay of Bengal (22–43%), consistent between clusters in each of these sub-regions. These changes were largely due to changes in the pre-monsoon season (April–June) where Bay of Bengal TCs significantly decreased, consistent with changes in vertical ascent. Northern Arabian Sea TCs significantly increased during the pre-monsoon season, consistent with changes in vertical wind shear and relative humidity. There was a projected increase of TC frequency in the post-monsoon season (October–December), consistent with changes in relative humidity and vertical ascent, although not all clusters followed this trend; noting a different response in the southern Bay of Bengal. In turn, these projections caused changes to the climate averaged TC track density, including a decrease (up to 2 TCs per decade) affecting the eastern coast of India and a small increase (up to 0.5 TCs per decade) affecting eastern Africa, Oman and Yemen. © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society
Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific
- Chand, Savin, Tory, Kevin, Ye, Hua, Walsh, Kevin
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Tory, Kevin , Ye, Hua , Walsh, Kevin
- Date: 2017
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Nature Climate Change Vol. 7, no. 2 (2017), p. 123-127
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (â 1/420-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events - and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events - around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region : Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
- Chand, Savin, Dowdy, Andrew, Ramsay, Hamish, Walsh, Kevin, Tory, Kevin, Power, Scott, Bell, Samuel, Lavender, Sally, Ye, Hua, Kuleshov, Yuri
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
- Authors: Chand, Savin , Dowdy, Andrew , Ramsay, Hamish , Walsh, Kevin , Tory, Kevin , Power, Scott , Bell, Samuel , Lavender, Sally , Ye, Hua , Kuleshov, Yuri
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article , Review
- Relation: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Vol. 10, no. 5 (2019), p. 1-17
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human-induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long-term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up-to-date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »