Injuries in Australian rules football : An overview of injury rates, patterns, and mechanisms across all levels of play
- Saw, Richard, Finch, Caroline, Samra, David, Baquie, Peter, Cardoso, Tanusha, Hope, Danielle, Orchard, John
- Authors: Saw, Richard , Finch, Caroline , Samra, David , Baquie, Peter , Cardoso, Tanusha , Hope, Danielle , Orchard, John
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Sports Health Vol. 10, no. 3 (2018), p. 208-216
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Context: The nature of Australian rules football (Australian football) predisposes both unique and common injuries compared with those sustained in other football codes. The game involves a combination of tackling, kicking, high-speed running (more than other football codes), and jumping. Two decades of injury surveillance has identified common injuries at the professional level (Australian Football League [AFL]). Objective: To provide an overview of injuries in Australian rules football, including injury rates, patterns, and mechanisms across all levels of play. Study Design: A narrative review of AFL injuries, football injury epidemiology, and biomechanical and physiological attributes of relevant injuries. Results: The overall injury incidence in the 2015 season was 41.7 injuries per club per season, with a prevalence of 156.2 missed games per club per season. Lower limb injuries are most prevalent, with hamstring strains accounting for 19.1 missed games per club per season. Hamstring strains relate to the volume of high-speed running required in addition to at times having to collect the ball while running in a position of hip flexion and knee extension. Anterior cruciate ligament injuries are also prevalent and can result from contact and noncontact incidents. In the upper limb, shoulder sprains and dislocations account for 11.5 missed games per club per season and largely resulted from tackling and contact. Concussion is less common in AFL than other tackling sports but remains an important injury, which has notably become more prevalent in recent years, theorized to be due to a more conservative approach to management. Although there are less injury surveillance data for non-AFL players (women, community-level, children), many of these injuries appear to also be common across all levels of play. Clinical Relevance: An understanding of injury profiles and mechanisms in Australian football is crucial in identifying methods to reduce injury risk and prepare players for the demands of the game. © 2017,
- Authors: Saw, Richard , Finch, Caroline , Samra, David , Baquie, Peter , Cardoso, Tanusha , Hope, Danielle , Orchard, John
- Date: 2018
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Sports Health Vol. 10, no. 3 (2018), p. 208-216
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Context: The nature of Australian rules football (Australian football) predisposes both unique and common injuries compared with those sustained in other football codes. The game involves a combination of tackling, kicking, high-speed running (more than other football codes), and jumping. Two decades of injury surveillance has identified common injuries at the professional level (Australian Football League [AFL]). Objective: To provide an overview of injuries in Australian rules football, including injury rates, patterns, and mechanisms across all levels of play. Study Design: A narrative review of AFL injuries, football injury epidemiology, and biomechanical and physiological attributes of relevant injuries. Results: The overall injury incidence in the 2015 season was 41.7 injuries per club per season, with a prevalence of 156.2 missed games per club per season. Lower limb injuries are most prevalent, with hamstring strains accounting for 19.1 missed games per club per season. Hamstring strains relate to the volume of high-speed running required in addition to at times having to collect the ball while running in a position of hip flexion and knee extension. Anterior cruciate ligament injuries are also prevalent and can result from contact and noncontact incidents. In the upper limb, shoulder sprains and dislocations account for 11.5 missed games per club per season and largely resulted from tackling and contact. Concussion is less common in AFL than other tackling sports but remains an important injury, which has notably become more prevalent in recent years, theorized to be due to a more conservative approach to management. Although there are less injury surveillance data for non-AFL players (women, community-level, children), many of these injuries appear to also be common across all levels of play. Clinical Relevance: An understanding of injury profiles and mechanisms in Australian football is crucial in identifying methods to reduce injury risk and prepare players for the demands of the game. © 2017,
Assessing the completeness of coded and narrative data from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset using injuries sustained during fitness activities as a case study
- Gray, Shannon, Finch, Caroline
- Authors: Gray, Shannon , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Emergency Medicine Vol. 16, no. 1 (2016), p. 1-8
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1058737
- Full Text:
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- Description: Background: Injury surveillance systems support the ongoing systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of health information vital to the prevention, planning and evaluation of injury prevention strategies. One key measure of the success of such systems is their reliability. Data completeness is a major component of system reliability, and is an indicator of a system's data quality. The Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) is a state-wide record of injury presentations to emergency departments in Victoria, Australia. For each case, it provides information on the injury cause, place of occurrence, activity at time of injury, body region affected and nature of injury, as well as a free-text narrative of the injury event. The aim of this study was to assess the completeness of data in the VEMD using injuries sustained in fitness facilities as a case study. Methods: Analysis of VEMD coded parent injury variables (nature of injury, injured body region, cause of injury, place where injury occurred, activity at time of injury) and detailed narratives were reviewed for completeness over the ten-year period July 2003 to June 2012, inclusive. Narratives were text analysed manually to determine which items of injury information they contained and compared to the parent injury variables. Results: There were 2936 identified cases related to injuries sustained during fitness activities. Two percent of cases had all coded injury variables unspecified. Overall, 95.8 % of narratives had at least one piece of injury information missing. The nature of injury and body region variables were coded in 92.6 and 96.6 % of cases, yet were only mentioned in 27.1 and 75.4 % of narratives, respectively. The cause variable was allocated a specified code in 47.7 % of cases and was mentioned in 45.9 % of narratives. The cause was missing in both in 42.8 % of cases. In approximately half of all cases, the activity and place were specified in both the coded injury variable and narrative; they were missing in both in 7.4 and 13.6 % of cases, respectively. Conclusions: The reliability of the VEMD as an injury surveillance system, varied depending on the injury variable being examined. © 2016 The Author(s).
- Authors: Gray, Shannon , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2016
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Emergency Medicine Vol. 16, no. 1 (2016), p. 1-8
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1058737
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Injury surveillance systems support the ongoing systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of health information vital to the prevention, planning and evaluation of injury prevention strategies. One key measure of the success of such systems is their reliability. Data completeness is a major component of system reliability, and is an indicator of a system's data quality. The Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) is a state-wide record of injury presentations to emergency departments in Victoria, Australia. For each case, it provides information on the injury cause, place of occurrence, activity at time of injury, body region affected and nature of injury, as well as a free-text narrative of the injury event. The aim of this study was to assess the completeness of data in the VEMD using injuries sustained in fitness facilities as a case study. Methods: Analysis of VEMD coded parent injury variables (nature of injury, injured body region, cause of injury, place where injury occurred, activity at time of injury) and detailed narratives were reviewed for completeness over the ten-year period July 2003 to June 2012, inclusive. Narratives were text analysed manually to determine which items of injury information they contained and compared to the parent injury variables. Results: There were 2936 identified cases related to injuries sustained during fitness activities. Two percent of cases had all coded injury variables unspecified. Overall, 95.8 % of narratives had at least one piece of injury information missing. The nature of injury and body region variables were coded in 92.6 and 96.6 % of cases, yet were only mentioned in 27.1 and 75.4 % of narratives, respectively. The cause variable was allocated a specified code in 47.7 % of cases and was mentioned in 45.9 % of narratives. The cause was missing in both in 42.8 % of cases. In approximately half of all cases, the activity and place were specified in both the coded injury variable and narrative; they were missing in both in 7.4 and 13.6 % of cases, respectively. Conclusions: The reliability of the VEMD as an injury surveillance system, varied depending on the injury variable being examined. © 2016 The Author(s).
The incidence and burden of hospital-treated sports-related injury in people aged 15+ years in Victoria, Australia, 2004-2010 : A future epidemic of osteoarthritis?
- Finch, Caroline, Kemp, Joanne, Clapperton, Angela
- Authors: Finch, Caroline , Kemp, Joanne , Clapperton, Angela
- Date: 2015
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteorthritis and Cartilage Vol. 23, no. 7 (2015), p. 1138-1143
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
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- Description: Objectives: Previous sports injury is a known risk factor for subsequent osteoarthritis (OA), but population-based rates of sports injury are unknown. The aims of this study were to: (1) describe the trends in the population incidence and burden of all hospital-treated sports injury in Victoria, Australia in adults aged 15+ years; (2) determine the incidence of lower limb and knee injuries; and (3) quantify their population health burden as average direct hospital costs per injury and lengths of stay. Methods: Health sector data relating to adults aged 15+ years, for 2004-2010 inclusive, was extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD). Data relating to sports injuries were identified using activity codes in each dataset Trends in injury frequency and rates were determined, and economic burden was calculated. Results: The overall annual rate of hospital treated sports injuries increased by 24% (P = 0.001), and lower limb injuries by 26% (P = 0.001) over the 7 years. The associated accumulated economic burden was $265 million for all sports injuries and $110 million for lower limb injuries over the 7-years. Conclusions: The findings of this study show a significant increase in sports injuries in the state of Victoria, Australia over a 7-year period. As previous sports injury is a risk factor for the development of OA, the future incidence of OA will escalate, placing an even greater burden on health care systems. Population-wide preventative strategies that reduce the risk of sports injury are urgently required in order to reduce the future burden of OA. © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International.
- Authors: Finch, Caroline , Kemp, Joanne , Clapperton, Angela
- Date: 2015
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteorthritis and Cartilage Vol. 23, no. 7 (2015), p. 1138-1143
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Objectives: Previous sports injury is a known risk factor for subsequent osteoarthritis (OA), but population-based rates of sports injury are unknown. The aims of this study were to: (1) describe the trends in the population incidence and burden of all hospital-treated sports injury in Victoria, Australia in adults aged 15+ years; (2) determine the incidence of lower limb and knee injuries; and (3) quantify their population health burden as average direct hospital costs per injury and lengths of stay. Methods: Health sector data relating to adults aged 15+ years, for 2004-2010 inclusive, was extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD). Data relating to sports injuries were identified using activity codes in each dataset Trends in injury frequency and rates were determined, and economic burden was calculated. Results: The overall annual rate of hospital treated sports injuries increased by 24% (P = 0.001), and lower limb injuries by 26% (P = 0.001) over the 7 years. The associated accumulated economic burden was $265 million for all sports injuries and $110 million for lower limb injuries over the 7-years. Conclusions: The findings of this study show a significant increase in sports injuries in the state of Victoria, Australia over a 7-year period. As previous sports injury is a risk factor for the development of OA, the future incidence of OA will escalate, placing an even greater burden on health care systems. Population-wide preventative strategies that reduce the risk of sports injury are urgently required in order to reduce the future burden of OA. © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International.
Time to add a new priority target for child injury prevention? The case for an excess burden associated with sport and exercise injury : Population-based study
- Finch, Caroline, Shee, Anna Wong, Clapperton, Angela
- Authors: Finch, Caroline , Shee, Anna Wong , Clapperton, Angela
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMJ Open Vol. 4, no. 7. e005043
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1058737
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Objective: To determine the population-level burden of sports injuries compared with that for road traffic injury for children aged <15 years in Victoria, Australia. Design: Retrospective observational study. Setting: Analysis of routinely collected data relating to non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury and road traffic injury cases for children aged <15 years in Victoria, Australia, over 2004-2010, inclusive. Participants: 75 413 non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury and road traffic injury cases in children aged <15 years. Data included: all Victorian public and private hospital hospitalisations, using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) activity codes to identify sports-related cases and ICD-10-AM cause and location codes to identify road traffic injuries; and injury presentations to 38 Victorian public hospital emergency departments, using a combination of activity, cause and location codes. Main outcome measures: Trends in injury frequency and rate were analysed by log-linear Poisson regression and the population-level injury burden was assessed in terms of years lived with disability (YLD), hospital bed-days and direct hospital costs. Results: Over the 7-year period, the annual frequency of non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury increased significantly by 29% (from N=7405 to N=9923; p<0.001) but the frequency of non-fatal hospital-treated road traffic injury decreased by 26% (from N=1841 to N=1334; p<0.001). Sports injury accounted for a larger population health burden than did road traffic injury on all measures: 3-fold the number of YLDs (7324.8 vs 2453.9); 1.9-fold the number of bed-days (26 233 vs 13 886) and 2.6-fold the direct hospital costs ($A5.9 millions vs $A2.2 millions). Conclusions: The significant 7-year increase in the frequency of hospital-treated sports injury and the substantially higher injury population-health burden (direct hospital costs, bed-day usage and YLD impacts) for sports injury compared with road traffic injury for children aged <15 years indicates an urgent need to prioritise sports injury prevention in this age group.
- Authors: Finch, Caroline , Shee, Anna Wong , Clapperton, Angela
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMJ Open Vol. 4, no. 7. e005043
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1058737
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Objective: To determine the population-level burden of sports injuries compared with that for road traffic injury for children aged <15 years in Victoria, Australia. Design: Retrospective observational study. Setting: Analysis of routinely collected data relating to non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury and road traffic injury cases for children aged <15 years in Victoria, Australia, over 2004-2010, inclusive. Participants: 75 413 non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury and road traffic injury cases in children aged <15 years. Data included: all Victorian public and private hospital hospitalisations, using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) activity codes to identify sports-related cases and ICD-10-AM cause and location codes to identify road traffic injuries; and injury presentations to 38 Victorian public hospital emergency departments, using a combination of activity, cause and location codes. Main outcome measures: Trends in injury frequency and rate were analysed by log-linear Poisson regression and the population-level injury burden was assessed in terms of years lived with disability (YLD), hospital bed-days and direct hospital costs. Results: Over the 7-year period, the annual frequency of non-fatal hospital-treated sports injury increased significantly by 29% (from N=7405 to N=9923; p<0.001) but the frequency of non-fatal hospital-treated road traffic injury decreased by 26% (from N=1841 to N=1334; p<0.001). Sports injury accounted for a larger population health burden than did road traffic injury on all measures: 3-fold the number of YLDs (7324.8 vs 2453.9); 1.9-fold the number of bed-days (26 233 vs 13 886) and 2.6-fold the direct hospital costs ($A5.9 millions vs $A2.2 millions). Conclusions: The significant 7-year increase in the frequency of hospital-treated sports injury and the substantially higher injury population-health burden (direct hospital costs, bed-day usage and YLD impacts) for sports injury compared with road traffic injury for children aged <15 years indicates an urgent need to prioritise sports injury prevention in this age group.
Air temperature and the incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in older people
- Turner, R. M., Hayen, Andrew, Dunsmuir, William, Finch, Caroline
- Authors: Turner, R. M. , Hayen, Andrew , Dunsmuir, William , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteoporosis International Vol. 22, no. 4 (2011), p. 1183-1189
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations. After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, hip fracture rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature. This study investigated whether there was an association between fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations and air temperature at a day-to-day level, after accounting for seasonal trend and autocorrelation. Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations for the period 1 July 1998 to 31 December 2004, inclusive, in the Sydney region of New South Wales, Australia, which has a population of 4 million people. Lower daily air temperature was significantly associated with higher fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in 75+-year-olds: men aged 75-84 years, rate ratio (RR) for a 1A degrees C increase in temperature of 0.98 with 95% confidence interval (0.96, 0.99), men 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.96, 1.00), women 75-84 years RR = 0.99 (0.98, 1.00), women 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.97, 0.99). Moreover, there were fewer hospitalisations on weekends compared to weekdays ranging from RR = 0.81 (0.73, 0.90) in women aged 65-74 years to RR = 0.89 (0.80, 0.98) in men aged 85+ years. After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, fall-related hip fracture hospitalisation rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature.
- Authors: Turner, R. M. , Hayen, Andrew , Dunsmuir, William , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteoporosis International Vol. 22, no. 4 (2011), p. 1183-1189
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations. After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, hip fracture rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature. This study investigated whether there was an association between fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations and air temperature at a day-to-day level, after accounting for seasonal trend and autocorrelation. Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations for the period 1 July 1998 to 31 December 2004, inclusive, in the Sydney region of New South Wales, Australia, which has a population of 4 million people. Lower daily air temperature was significantly associated with higher fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in 75+-year-olds: men aged 75-84 years, rate ratio (RR) for a 1A degrees C increase in temperature of 0.98 with 95% confidence interval (0.96, 0.99), men 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.96, 1.00), women 75-84 years RR = 0.99 (0.98, 1.00), women 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.97, 0.99). Moreover, there were fewer hospitalisations on weekends compared to weekdays ranging from RR = 0.81 (0.73, 0.90) in women aged 65-74 years to RR = 0.89 (0.80, 0.98) in men aged 85+ years. After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, fall-related hip fracture hospitalisation rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature.
Patterns of comorbidity in community-dwelling older people hospitalised for fall-related injury: A cluster analysis
- Vu, Trang, Finch, Caroline, Day, Lesley
- Authors: Vu, Trang , Finch, Caroline , Day, Lesley
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Geriatrics Vol. 11, no. 45 (2011), p. 1-10
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years sustain falls frequently; these can result in physical injuries necessitating medical attention including emergency department care and hospitalisation. Certain health conditions and impairments have been shown to contribute independently to the risk of falling or experiencing a fall injury, suggesting that individuals with these conditions or impairments should be the focus of falls prevention. Since older people commonly have multiple conditions/impairments, knowledge about which conditions/impairments coexist in at-risk individuals would be valuable in the implementation of a targeted prevention approach. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the prevalence and patterns of comorbidity in this population group. Methods: We analysed hospitalisation data from Victoria, Australia's second most populous state, to estimate the prevalence of comorbidity in patients hospitalised at least once between 2005-6 and 2007-8 for treatment of acute fall-related injuries. In patients with two or more comorbid conditions (multicomorbidity) we used an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method to cluster comorbidity variables and identify constellations of conditions. Results: More than one in four patients had at least one comorbid condition and among patients with comorbidity one in three had multicomorbidity (range 2-7). The prevalence of comorbidity varied by gender, age group, ethnicity and injury type; it was also associated with a significant increase in the average cumulative length of stay per patient. The cluster analysis identified five distinct, biologically plausible clusters of comorbidity: cardiopulmonary/metabolic, neurological, sensory, stroke and cancer. The cardiopulmonary/metabolic cluster was the largest cluster among the clusters identified. Conclusions: The consequences of comorbidity clustering in terms of falls and/or injury outcomes of hospitalised patients should be investigated by future studies. Our findings have particular relevance for falls prevention strategies, clinical practice and planning of follow-up services for these patients.
- Authors: Vu, Trang , Finch, Caroline , Day, Lesley
- Date: 2011
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: BMC Geriatrics Vol. 11, no. 45 (2011), p. 1-10
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Background: Community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years sustain falls frequently; these can result in physical injuries necessitating medical attention including emergency department care and hospitalisation. Certain health conditions and impairments have been shown to contribute independently to the risk of falling or experiencing a fall injury, suggesting that individuals with these conditions or impairments should be the focus of falls prevention. Since older people commonly have multiple conditions/impairments, knowledge about which conditions/impairments coexist in at-risk individuals would be valuable in the implementation of a targeted prevention approach. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the prevalence and patterns of comorbidity in this population group. Methods: We analysed hospitalisation data from Victoria, Australia's second most populous state, to estimate the prevalence of comorbidity in patients hospitalised at least once between 2005-6 and 2007-8 for treatment of acute fall-related injuries. In patients with two or more comorbid conditions (multicomorbidity) we used an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method to cluster comorbidity variables and identify constellations of conditions. Results: More than one in four patients had at least one comorbid condition and among patients with comorbidity one in three had multicomorbidity (range 2-7). The prevalence of comorbidity varied by gender, age group, ethnicity and injury type; it was also associated with a significant increase in the average cumulative length of stay per patient. The cluster analysis identified five distinct, biologically plausible clusters of comorbidity: cardiopulmonary/metabolic, neurological, sensory, stroke and cancer. The cardiopulmonary/metabolic cluster was the largest cluster among the clusters identified. Conclusions: The consequences of comorbidity clustering in terms of falls and/or injury outcomes of hospitalised patients should be investigated by future studies. Our findings have particular relevance for falls prevention strategies, clinical practice and planning of follow-up services for these patients.
Functional data modelling approach for analysing and predicting trends in incidence rates-an application to falls injury
- Ullah, Shahid, Finch, Caroline
- Authors: Ullah, Shahid , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2010
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteoporosis International Vol. 21, no. 12 (2010), p. 2125-2134
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Summary: Policy decisions about the allocation of current and future resources should be based on the most accurate predictions possible. A functional data analysis (FDA) approach improves the understanding of current trends and future incidence of injuries. FDA provides more valid and reliable long-term predictions than commonly used methods. Introduction: Accurate information about predicted future injury rates is needed to inform public health investment decisions. It is critical that such predictions derived from the best available statistical models to minimise possible error in future injury incidence rates. Methods: FDA approach was developed to improve long-term predictions but is yet to be widely applied to injury epidemiology or other epidemiological research. Using the specific example of modelling age-specific annual incidence of fall-related severe head injuries of older people during 1970-2004 and predicting rates up to 2024 in Finland, this paper explains the principles behind FDA and demonstrates their superiority in terms of prediction accuracy over the more commonly reported ordinary least squares (OLS) approach. Results: Application of the FDA approach shows that the incidence of fall-related severe head injuries would increase by 2.3-2.6-fold by 2024 compared to 2004. The FDA predictions had 55% less prediction error than traditional OLS predictions when compared to actual data. Conclusions: In summary, FDA provides more accurate predictions of long-term incidence trends than commonly used methods. The production of FDA prediction intervals for future injury incidence rates gives likely guidance as to the likely accuracy of these predictions. © 2010 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.
- Authors: Ullah, Shahid , Finch, Caroline
- Date: 2010
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteoporosis International Vol. 21, no. 12 (2010), p. 2125-2134
- Relation: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Summary: Policy decisions about the allocation of current and future resources should be based on the most accurate predictions possible. A functional data analysis (FDA) approach improves the understanding of current trends and future incidence of injuries. FDA provides more valid and reliable long-term predictions than commonly used methods. Introduction: Accurate information about predicted future injury rates is needed to inform public health investment decisions. It is critical that such predictions derived from the best available statistical models to minimise possible error in future injury incidence rates. Methods: FDA approach was developed to improve long-term predictions but is yet to be widely applied to injury epidemiology or other epidemiological research. Using the specific example of modelling age-specific annual incidence of fall-related severe head injuries of older people during 1970-2004 and predicting rates up to 2024 in Finland, this paper explains the principles behind FDA and demonstrates their superiority in terms of prediction accuracy over the more commonly reported ordinary least squares (OLS) approach. Results: Application of the FDA approach shows that the incidence of fall-related severe head injuries would increase by 2.3-2.6-fold by 2024 compared to 2004. The FDA predictions had 55% less prediction error than traditional OLS predictions when compared to actual data. Conclusions: In summary, FDA provides more accurate predictions of long-term incidence trends than commonly used methods. The production of FDA prediction intervals for future injury incidence rates gives likely guidance as to the likely accuracy of these predictions. © 2010 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.
- Hindmarsh, Diane, Hayen, Andrew, Finch, Caroline, Close, Jacqueline
- Authors: Hindmarsh, Diane , Hayen, Andrew , Finch, Caroline , Close, Jacqueline
- Date: 2008
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Osteoporosis International Vol. , no. (2008), p. 1-9
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Summary: Survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture by age group and sex relative to survival in the general population was assessed in people aged 65+. Men had double the risk of death compared with women to 1 year, but age effects lasted only to 3 months. Clinical outcomes need to be improved. Introduction: We assessed the relative survival of hospitalised fall-related hip fracture patients aged 65+ years leaving hospital in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2000 and December 2003. Method: We carried out a population-based study of all hospital separations for NSW residents with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture (ICD-10-AM S72.0 to S72.2) and first external cause of fall (ICD-10-AM codes W00 to W19), linked to NSW death data. A total of 16,836 cases were included. Relative survival 3 to 36 months post-admission by 10-year age groups and sex was calculated, using NSW life tables for 2002-2004. Relative excess risk was modelled using a generalised linear model with Poisson error structure, using the life table data. Results: One-year cumulative relative survival in 65- to 74-year-olds was 82% (men), 90% (women); in 85+-year-olds 65% (men), 80% (women). Men have a relative excess risk of death of 2.2 (95% CI 2.03-2.38) times that of women. Only 21% of deaths mention the hip fracture as contributing to death. Conclusion: There is a need to reduce the number of hip fractures and improve clinical outcomes for older people hospitalised with hip fractures. © 2008 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.
- Description: C1
- Description: 2003008189
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