- Title
- Tropical cyclone activity in the Solomon Islands region : climatology, variability, and trends
- Creator
- Haruhiru, Alick; Chand, Savin; Turville, Christopher; Ramsay, Hamish
- Date
- 2023
- Type
- Text; Journal article
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/188180
- Identifier
- vital:17229
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7797
- Identifier
- ISSN:0899-8418 (ISSN)
- Abstract
- This study examines the climatology, variability, and trends of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Solomon Islands (SI) territory, in the wider southwest Pacific (SWP), using the South Pacific Enhanced Archive for Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database. During the period 1969/1970–2018/2019, 168 TCs were recorded in the SI territory. A cluster analysis is used to objectively partition these tracks into three clusters of similar TC trajectories to obtain better insights into the effects of natural climate variability, particularly due to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which otherwise is not very apparent for TCs when considered collectively in the SI region. We find that TCs in clusters 1 and 3 show enhanced activity during El Niño phase, whereas TCs in cluster 2 are enhanced during La Niña and neutral phases. In addition to being modulated by ENSO, TCs in clusters 2 and 3 show statistically significant modulation at an intraseasonal timescale due to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomenon. There are also some indications through sophisticated Bayesian modelling that TCs in clusters 2 and 3 are slightly influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). These results can have substantial implications for cluster-specific development of TC prediction schemes for the SI region. © 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons Ltd
- Relation
- International Journal of Climatology Vol. 43, no. 1 (2023), p. 593-614
- Rights
- All metadata describing materials held in, or linked to, the repository is freely available under a CC0 licence
- Rights
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
- Rights
- Copyright © 2022 The Authors
- Rights
- Open Access
- Subject
- 3701 Atmospheric sciences; 3702 Climate change science; 3707 Hydrology; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Madden–Julian Oscillation; tropical cyclones
- Full Text
- Reviewed
- Funder
- Open access publishing facilitated by Federation University Australia, as part of the Wiley - Federation University Australia agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.
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