- Title
- An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones
- Creator
- Camargo, Suzana; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Chand, Savin; Deshpande, Medha; Dominguez-Sarmiento, Christian; González-Alemán, Juan; Knutson, Thomas; Lin, I.; Moon, Il-Ju; Patricola, Christian; Reed, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Tam, Chi; Wallace, Elizabeth; Wu, Liguang; Yamada, Yohei; Zhang, Wei; Zhao, Haikun
- Date
- 2023
- Type
- Text; Journal article
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/197608
- Identifier
- vital:18902
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.10.001
- Identifier
- ISSN:2225-6032 (ISSN)
- Abstract
- A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers. © 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration
- Publisher
- KeAi Communications Co.
- Relation
- Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Vol. 12, no. 3 (2023), p. 216-239
- Rights
- All metadata describing materials held in, or linked to, the repository is freely available under a CC0 licence
- Rights
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- Rights
- Copyright © 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration
- Rights
- Open Access
- Subject
- 3701 Atmospheric sciences
- Full Text
- Reviewed
- Funder
- SJC acknowledges support from NSF (AGS 20–43142 and AGS 22–17618), NOAA (NA21OAR4310344),DOE(DESC0023333) and the Vetlesen Foundation. SSC acknowledges funding support from the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program(NESP). I-JMacknowledges thefinancial supports from the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No.RS-2022-00144325)and the Ministry of Education (Basic Science Research Program, 2021R1A2C1005287). CMP acknowledges support from theU.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological andEnvironmental Research (BER), Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling (EESM) Program, under Early Career Research Program AwardNumberDE-SC0021109. MJR acknowledges support fromthe UK-ChinaResearch and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP)China as partof the Newton Fund. YY acknowledges support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)as“Program for Promoting Researches on the Supercomputer Fugaku” (JPMXP1020200305).
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