A neural network approach for predicting the direction of the Australian stock market index
- Authors: Tilakaratne, Chandima
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: This research investigated the feasibility and capability of neural network-based approaches for predicting the direction of the Australian Stock market index (the target market). It includes several aspects: univariate feature selection from the historical time series of the target market, inter-market analysis for finding the most relevant influential markets, investigations of the effect of time cycles on the target market and the discovery of the optimal neural network architectures. Previous research on US stock markets and other international markets have shown that the neural network approach is one of most powerful techniques for predicting stock market behaviour. Neural networks are capable of capturing the non-linear stochastic and chaotic patterns in the stock market time series data. This study discovered that the relative return series of the Open, High, Low and Close prices of the target market, show 6-day cycles during the studied period of about 14 years. Multi-layer feedforward neural networks trained with a backpropagation algorithm were used for the experiments. Two major testing methods: testing with randomly selected test data and forward testing, were examined and compared. The best neural network developed in this study has achieved 87%, 81% 83% and 81% accuracy respectively in predicting the next-day direction of the relative return of the Open, High, Low and Close prices of the target market. The architecture of this network consists of 33 input features, one hidden layer with 3 neurons and 4 output neurons. The best input features set includes the relative returns from 1 to 6 days in the past of the Open, High, Low and Close prices of the target market, the day of the week, and the previous day’s relative return of the Close prices of the US S&P 500 Index, US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, US Gold/Silver Index, and the US Oil Index.
- Description: Master of Information Technology by Research
A study of multiple perspectives and knowledge in adverse drug reaction decision-making : Volume 1
- Authors: O'Brien, Michelle
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: Injury and illness associated with drugs are major problems in Australia and around the world, despite significant developments in the area of adverse drug reaction (ADR) decision support technology. The aims of this thesis are: to investigate the ADR decision domain; to determine factors that may assist in the prevention, detection and management of ADRs; and, to inform the pre-requirements analysis phase of the development of decision support systems. An approach has been taken that permits open and grounded study of the decision environment. This approach can then be used to frame and inform the design of an ADR decision support system. Fifteen case studies that comprise self selected consumers, the treating medical practitioner/s and expert perspectives of a single instance of an ADR (fifteen in-depth consumer interviews, eight in-depth medical practitioner interviews and 30 expert written questionnaires), have been collected and analysed using a grounded theory approach, a symbolic interactionist theoretical framework and a social constructionist epistemology. The analysis was performed from three perspectives: individual case study analysis (all interviews for an instance of an ADR); group analysis (consumer, medical practitioner and expert views) and analysis combining the individual case studies and groups of data. Concepts, themes and theory have emerged from these data in the following areas: • the contribution of the differences in understanding of the core concepts within this domain, to misunderstandings between decision-makers; • the consumer as a diagnostic decision-maker in the ADR decision domain; • differential diagnostic strategies used by the consumers and medical practitioners; • complexities in the ADR decision domain that make diagnosis difficult; • the role of ADR information in consumer and medical practitioner decision-making; • decision types used by consumers and medical practitioners in the ADR decision domain; • resources used by consumers, medical practitioners and experts to inform their ADR decisions; • decision-making with partial knowledge of the consumer case history, drug behaviour and diseases; • the impact of suspected ADRs on consumers and on future decision-making; • medical practitioner/consumer decision-making models; and, • reasons for low ADR reporting and the impact on the development of new ADR knowledge. The results above suggest the following: • The ADR decision domain is more complex than the current ADR decision support focus and that broadening this focus may assist in providing a more complete and useful decision support solution. • Improving the prevention, detection and management of ADRs requires more than providing prescribers with up to date ADR information. Other important factors are sharing of information, awareness of the role of the consumer, a collaborative approach between the consumers and medical practitioners, and generation of new ADR knowledge. • A grounded theory analysis of case study data using the theoretical perspectives of social constructionism and symbolic interactionism provided insight into this domain from the perspectives of multiple decision-makers. This may be an approach that can be used by systems analysts to inform the requirements analysis phases of decision support within other domains. The results of this qualitative work are preliminary. Future work is required to confirm and expand these results.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
An exploration of the reasons why 10 women from central Victoria chose to birth at home
- Authors: Kelson, Lynette
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
- Full Text: false
- Description: Master of Nursing
- Description: An exploration of the reasons why 10 women from central Victoria chose to birth at home
Development and validation of the Pre-school Educational and Psychological Screen (PrEPS)
- Authors: Heeney, Simone
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: Children with behavioural, social, and emotional problems in preschool are often at risk for school maladjustment and the development of psychological disorders when they enter the school system. This study sought to develop and validate a preschool screening instrument that could identify the precursors and symptoms of mental health problems and provide targeted intervention processes. Measures included on the screen were 20 items identified by 126 Victorian Prep teachers as most important for school success. When administered by teachers of 143 (68 boys, 75 girls) preschoolaged children, these items demonstrated an internal reliability of .97. Factor analysis resulted in a 3-factor solution, with 'Learning Skills", 'Social Skills', and 'Good Start Skills' emerging as factors. This 'Preschool Educational and Psychological Screen' (PrEPS) demonstrated significant concurrent, predictive, and construct validity. Factor scores were associated with family income, fathers' education, parents' marital status, and child's age, hours of sleep, and gender. Results indicate that the PrEPS is a reliable and valid instrument in the identification of early indicators of psychological problems in preschoolers.
- Description: Professional Doctorate of Psychology (Clinical)
- Description: This research thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of D. Psych (Clinical), School of Behavioural & Social Science & Humanities.
Integrated clinical pathway of transurethral resection of the prostate : Impact on clinical quality, cost and patient and staff satisfaction
- Authors: Khowaja, Khurshid
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: "The central focus of this study is an investigation into how the implementation of a clinical pathway for the surgical procedure of transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) impacted on clinical quality, cost, and patient and staff satisfaction at the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) in Pakistan"
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Mathematical models of dynamic reconfiguration of telecommunication networks
- Authors: Dzalilov, Zari
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: In this thesis we examine mathematical models for dynamical reconfiguration of telecommunication networks. Dynamical configuration is one of the most important problems in the field of network management. In the case of some part of the network being damaged the system should maintain its operations, taking into account the new conditions. This can be achieved by using the residual capacity of the system if it is available. If there were not enough residual capacity, the managers of the system need to involve some of the unaffected traffic in order to reorganize traffic. A prolonged breakdown will push some customers to change their provider; there is also a lost [sic] of profit because of breakdowns, that can be considered as a certain implicit penalty. To reorganize traffic by using new routes we should have a flexible routing system.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Quoting landscape : an investigative journey across the landscape of the Westen district of Victoria
- Authors: Donald, Colin
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: "This research project aims to provide a contemporary visualisation of "specific sites." The visualisation of these selected landscapes will draw upon and add to existing traditions of representation of this region, embedding my experiences within this dialogue."
- Description: Master of Arts (Visual Arts)
The influence of glycerol hyperhydration on run performance within an Olympic distance triathlon
- Authors: Van Ewyk, Gerald
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: This study was designed to determine the impact of glycerol hyperhydration, compared with a placebo hyperhydration, on the run performance during an Olympic distance triathlon. Ten competitive triathletes (mean peak oxygen consumption, VO2 peak = 65.5 ± 5.5 ml.kg.-1min-1) undertook two simulated Olympic Distance Triathlons in 31° C and 61% relative humidity. The trials were split into two work phases: a fixed workload phase comprising a 18-20 min swim and a 60 min cycle and, a self regulated time trial run over 10 kilometres conducted on a treadmill. One hundred and fifty min prior each trial, either a glycerol solution (1 g.kg.-1 body mass (BM) in a 4% carbohydrate – electrolyte drink) or a placebo of equal volume of the 4% carbohydrate-electrolyte solution was ingested over one hour. The total fluid intake in each trial was 23 ml.kg.-1 BM. A randomised, double blind, cross over design was used. Due to either 1) the arduous nature of the trials 2) the side effects associated with the ingestion of glycerol 3) or the combination of the two aforementioned reasons, only five of the 10 subjects completed the final 10 km self regulated time trial for both treatments. Only the data obtained from these five subjects were reported in this study. Glycerol ingestion expanded body water over the placebo by 154 ml (26%). At 60 and 90 min after the start of drinking, urine output was significantly higher with glycerol than placebo treatment (216.4, 366.4 ml vs 81.0, 242.0 ml, respectively) but significantly higher at 120 min in the placebo (421.6 ml vs 131.2 ml). There were no significant differences in heart rate and rectal temperature during the swim and cycle phases. However, there were significant increases in heart rate (at 5, 10, 15, 25 and 30 min) and rectal temperature (at 5, 20 and 30 min) during the 10 km run in the glycerol trial. The mean 10 km run time for the placebo trial was 40 min 21 sec (± 2.9 min) while the glycerol trial was 39 min 22 sec (± 2.0 min). The mean difference of 2.1% in finishing time between trials was not significant. Three of the five subjects in the glycerol trial improved their 10 km time by 7.0, 2.4 and 2.7%, respectively. The finishing time for one subject did not change for both trials while another subject had deteriorated by 2.3% in the glycerol trial. In the glycerol treatment, five subjects complained of bloating and nausea while only one subject complained of feeling unwell in the placebo treatment. Data from this study have shown that glycerol hyperhydration did not significantly improve performance while plasma volume expansion and subsequent lower rectal temperature and lower heart rates were not evident. The exact mechanisms of how glycerol hyperhydration can improve performance warrant further investigation.
- Description: Masters in Applied Science
The intellectual life of Catherine Helen Spence
- Authors: McFarland, Michele
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: This thesis will argue that Catherine Helen Spence, a writer, preacher and reformer who migrated from Scotland to Australia in 1839, performed the role of a public intellectual in Australia similar to that played by a number of women of letters in Victorian England. While her ideas were strongly influenced by important British and European nineteenth-century intellectual figures and movements, as well as by Enlightenment thought, her work also reflects the different socio-political, historical and cultural environment of Australia. These connections and influences can be seen in her engagement with what were some of the "big ideas" of the nineteenth century, including feminism, socialism, religious scepticism, utopianism and the value of progress. In arguing that Spence was a public intellectual, I will consider the ways in which she used the literary genres of fiction and journalism, as well as her sermons, to try to help her fellow citizens make sense of the world, attempting to organise and articulate some of the significant ideas affecting the political, social and cultural climates in which they lived. Through the exploration of Spence's intellectual work, I will show how she can be regarded as making a significant contribution to nineteenth-century Australian intellectual life, one that has been under-recognised and under-valued.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Underwater kicking following the freestyle tumble-turn
- Authors: Clothier, Peter
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: Swim turns are a component of competitive swimming where considerable advantage can be gained or lost. This thesis investigates underwater dolphin and flutter kicking techniques and their application to exits following the turn in freestyle swimming. Five separate investigations were conducted to examine the kinetics and kinematics of each underwater kicking technique and are presented in expanded journal manuscript form. Studies one, two and three involved the comparison of freestyle turns when using flutter and dolphin kicking wall exit techniques. The results obtained indicated that freestyle turns using flutter kicking were faster than dolphin kicking in age-group swimmers. For this group, significant and equal improvements were made to flutter and dolphin kick turn performances following six weeks of dolphin kick and dolphin kick turn training. However, no difference in turn times were observed between kicking conditions by older and more highly skilled swimmers. Study four involved a kinematical comparison of maximal underwater free-swimming dolphin and flutter kicking. Results showed dolphin kick to be a superior underwater free-swimming technique. Greater foot width, increased ankle range of movement and greater vertical displacement of the ankle and foot during kicking were shown to be highly predictive of faster underwater dolphin kicking. Investigation five compared the drag forces and kinematics between the dolphin and flutter kicking techniques while subjects were towed at velocities representing those experienced following wall turn push-off. Results favour the dolphin kick as a superior underwater technique at these higher velocities. Increased underwater dolphin kicking efficiency, as measured by decreased net towing force, was found to be associated with larger kick amplitude – rate ratios, and higher kick amplitude – streamline length ratios.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Using digital image analysis for assessing the quality of wheat and barley
- Authors: Armstrong, Bruce
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: This thesis explores the issues involved in developing a relatively low-cost digital imaging analysis (DIA) system fot the quality assessment of wheat and barley using commonly available equipment. It also explores the capability of such a system to provide rapid and accurate assessments.
- Description: Master of Applied Science by research
When urban policy meets regional practice : Evidence based practice from the perspective of multi-disciplinary teams working in rural and remote health service provision
- Authors: Murphy, Angela
- Date: 2004
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: "In the main, contemporary research on Evidence Based Practice (EBP) has taken place within metropolitan locations, and has offered urbocentric solutions and insights. However the transferability of these developments to rural services is untested empirically. In addition, evidence development and studies on the implementation of this evidence have tended to be discipline-stream-specific; there has been very little research into either the development of multi-disciplinary evidence guidelines or the implementation of EBP from the perspective of individual practitioners working within multi-disciplinary teams. This research shortfall has provided the rationale for this study...."
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
"Drugs on the mind" : dual diagnosis : the experience of mental health professionals
- Authors: Soar, Rod
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: Recent publicity has focused on the problems created by the usage of illicit drugs in the community. The growing use of illicit drugs throughout the Grampians region and the lack of resources and professional services available to regional and rural areas raise many questions as to treatment options and the accessibility and appropriateness of drug and alcohol and mental health services. Despite the fact that mental health professionals in rural/regional areas are expected to deliver the most appropriate care to individuals with a comorbid drug and alcohol and psychiatric disorder, a number of these rural/regional mental health professionals have limited preparation and experience in dealing with dual diagnosis issues. This phenomenological study focuses on the area of dual diagnosis, specifically the experiences of health professionals who care for clients diagnosed with a serious mental illness and a coexisting drug and alcohol disorder. Results are described in the form of four themes, which emerged from data collected during in-depth interviews with 13 mental health professionals who care for clients with a dual diagnosis. The themes captured in this research will be described using metaphors as headings. The first theme Sink or swim represents mental health professionals’ initial preparation to care for this group of complex clientele. Treading water symbolises mental health professionals’ endeavours to keep their head above water and reflects on their feelings while endeavouring to do so. Rowing against the tide describes mental health professionals’ understanding of clients’ drug misuse, which impacts greatly on the level of care.
- Description: Master of Nursing
.comUnity : A study on the adoption and diffusion of internet technologies in a regional tourism network
- Authors: Braun, Patrice
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: This thesis describes the initiation and evolution of an action research project, which investigates the adoption and diffusion of Internet technologies in a regional Australian tourism network. The research evolved out of a portal development consultancy. The aim of the study was two-fold: to investigate the nature of the change process when a collaborative network seeks to adopt e-commerce; and to determine how the change process differed in the face of incremental change (adding some e-commerce solutions to the network), or radical change (changing the overall business model). The purpose of the study was to gain a better understanding of the economic, strategic and social potential of regional business networks in the current techno-economic climate. The study builds on Rogers' (1995) seminal work on the diffusion of innovations and makes a unique contribution to existing diffusion studies by its focus on the nature of the network links as the unit of analysis; and by its application of an action-oriented methodology to untangle the effects of the embedded network structure on diffusion. The study suggests a strong relationship between diffusion and network positioning, both in terms of place (status and position in the network) and space (the geographic make-up of the network). Diffusion further hinged on network cohesion, actors' trust in and engagement with the network. Adoption of e-commerce was obstructed by actors’ worldview; lack of time, reflexive learning, and commitment to change. The incorporation in the study’s diffusion framework of contextual moderators such as network position, worldview, trust, time and commitment considerably extends Rogers’ traditional diffusion framework. Based on its emergent analysis framework, the study introduces a dynamic change model towards sustainable regional network development. It is suggested that both the diffusion framework and the regional innovation model developed in this study may, either jointly or separately, be applicable beyond the tourism and service sector.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
A program visualisation meta language
- Authors: Stratton, David
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: The principle motivation of this work is to define an open PV architecture that will enable a variety of visualisation schemes to interoperate and that will encourage the generation of PV systems and research into their efficacy. Ultimately this may lead to more effective pedagogy in the field of computer programming and hence remove a barrier to students entering the profession.
- Description: Doctorate of Philosophy
Changing rural general practitioner practice : Evaluating health assessment uptake
- Authors: McGrath, Alicia
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: The Enhanced Primary Care Package aimed to improve health and quality of life through enhancing primary health care for those over 75 years, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders over 55 years and those with chronic conditions and multidisciplinary needs. A multi-level approach was implemented to promote the package. West Vic Division of General Practice conducted the General Practice Education Support and Community Linkages implementation program for the package in Western Victoria and focused on health assessments for those over 75 years. This research investigated what factors affected change in rural general practitioner practice through surveying general practitioners and collecting Health Insurance Commission data prior to and following the program. Patients were also interviewed to determine acceptance of health assessments and nurse involvement. The program increased awareness, but had little effect on increasing uptake, as only 53% of general practitioners began undertaking health assessments. However the general practitioners indicated an increased frequency of health assessment prescription. Health Insurance Commission data suggested an immediate increase in the use of the assessments, however the rate fluctuated and then declined. Lack of sustained uptake of the program was not associated with remuneration, as 77% of general practitioners did not regard finance as a barrier. Respondents’ major barrier was time (40% pre-education, 73% post-education). This data reflected a rural environment where general practitioners face competing priorities, time constraints, workforce shortage and long consultation lists. A notable change did however occur from practice nurse employment as the involvement of a practice nurse generally resulted in patient satisfaction with the assessment. It was apparent that a complex multifaceted and longer-term view is needed to address factors which limit rural general practitioners’ ability to change. This needs to be addressed at the Commonwealth level and not in isolation in order to produce an integrated framework to enhance and promote, rather than demand change.
- Description: Master of Applied Science
Continuing "assimilation"? : A shifting identity for the Tiwi 1919 to the present
- Authors: Morris, John
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: The Tiwi are the indigenous people of the Tiwi Islands, located off the Northern Territory mainland. In 1919, as a unique and distinct people they appeared to be in a position to maintain their identity, to resist absorption into western culture and to avoid some of the serious social problems that came to affect some other Indigenous communities. While aspects of the Tiwi culture and lifestyle were gradually modified or abandoned through contact with outside societies between 1919 and 2000, other traits remained strong or were strengthened. These included their relationship with the land, the local language, dancing and singing, and adoption customs. Forms of visual art, some introduced, brought fame to the Tiwi. Government policies on Indigenous matters changed dramatically over the twentieth century. The earlier ones, including assimilation programmes were discriminatory and restrictive. Later approaches to Aboriginal and Islander welfare, including land rights, had significant consequences for the Islanders, some beneficial, others detrimental in nature. From the 1970s, the departure of resident missionaries and government officers from the islands led to an influx of private European employees. The exposure to these people added to that which the Tiwi experienced as they travelled far beyond their islands. After 1972, the policies of self-determination and, then, self-management placed enormous strains on the Tiwi as they strove to meet the requirements of government, private enterprise and the wider society. New forms of land and local government controls replaced the law of the elders. A younger, western-educated generation now spoke on behalf of the people. Ultimately, under the influence of outside pressures, degrees of socio-cultural absorption occurred in the islands even though the official policy of assimilation had been abandoned. Fortunately, the strong identity of the Tiwi ensured a level of social cohesion capable of combating full assimilation into a wholly western lifestyle.
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
The due process of accounting standard setting in Australia : the case of AAS27 : financial reporting by local governments
- Authors: Hurst, Gavin
- Date: 2003
- Type: Text , Thesis , DBA
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- Description: "This study enquires into the accounting standard system in Australia and questions the appropriateness of its core democratic participatory vehicle, the due process. In doing so it highlights issues associated with self-regulating authorities and their policy making practices. The study is pertinent to the extent it reviews a major paradigm shift within the Australian public sector and more specifically local government financial reporting. Spanning the course of three decades it examines the reasons for such a paradigm shift, the major actors involved, the actual changes made and the effectiveness of those changes."
- Description: Doctor of Business Administration
A fuzzy derivative and dynamical systems
- Authors: Mammadov, Musa
- Date: 2002
- Type: Text , Thesis , PhD
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- Description: "The purpose of this thesis is to develop and study new techniques for the mathematical modeling of dynamical systems and to apply these techniques to data classification problems. This approach is based on the notion of a fuzzy derivative. The main aim of the thesis is to examine this notion in data classification."
- Description: Doctor of Philosophy
Adolescents and the extended residential learning program : A case study
- Authors: McDonough, Sharon
- Date: 2002
- Type: Text , Thesis , Masters
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- Description: The purpose of this study was to explore, through the use of a case study, the impact of an eight-week residential learning program upon self-concept, learning and understanding of community amongst adolescent participants. The study utilized multiple methods of data collection including interviews, focus groups, observation, the Learning Process Questionnaire and the Self-Description Questionnaire II in order to address the research question.
- Description: Master of Education (Research)