Contributions of single–phase rooftop PVs on short circuits faults in residential feeders
- Authors: Yengejeh, Hadi , Shahnia, Farhad , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-6
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- Description: Sensitivity analysis results are presented to investigate the presence of single–phase rooftop Photovoltaic Cells (PV) in low voltage residential feeders, during short circuits in the overhead lines. The PV rating and location in the feeder and the fault location are considered as the variables of the sensitivity analysis. The single–phase faults are the main focus of this paper and the PV effect on fault current, current in distribution transformer secondary and the voltage at each bus of the feeder are investigated, during fault. Furthermore, to analyze the bus voltages and fault current in the presence of multiple PVs, each with different rating and location, a stochastic analysis is carried out to investigate the expected probability density function of these parameters, considering the uncertainties of PV rating and location as well as fault location.
Conversion efficiency improvement in GaAs solar cells
- Authors: Das, Narottam , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Book chapter
- Relation: Large Scale Renewable Power Generation : Advances in Technologies for Generation, Transmission and Storage (part of the Green Energy and Technology book series) Chapter 3 p. 53-75
- Full Text: false
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- Description: The finite-difference time domain (FDTD) tool is used to simulate the reflection losses of subwavelength grating (SWG) structure in GaAs solar cells. The SWG structures act as an excellent alternative antireflective (AR) coating due to its capacity to reduce the reflection losses in GaAs solar cells. The SWG structures allow the gradual change in refractive index that confirms an excellent AR coating and light trapping properties, when compared with the planar thin film structures. The nanorod (nano-grating) structure acts as a single layer AR coating, whereas the triangular (conical or perfect cone) and parabolic (i.e., trapezoidal or truncated cone) shaped nano-grating structures act as a multilayer AR coating. The simulation results show that the reflection loss of triangular (conical or perfect cone) shaped nano-grating structure having a 300 nm grating height and an 830 nm period is ~2 %, which is about 28 % less than that of flat type substrates. The simulated results show that the light reflection of a rectangular shaped grating structure is ~30 %, however, the light reflection becomes ~2 % for a triangular (conical or perfect cone) shaped nano-grating structure, because the refractive index changes gradually in several steps and reduces the reflection losses. It is also noticed that the intermediate structures (trapezoidal and parabolic shaped), the light reflection loss is lower than the rectangular shaped nano-grating structure but higher than the triangular shaped nano-grating structure. The simulated results confirm that the reduction of light reflection losses in GaAs solar cell will increase the conversion efficiency. Therefore, this analysis confirmed that the triangular (i.e., perfect cone or conical) shaped nano-grating structures are an excellent alternative AR coating for the improvement of conversion efficiency in GaAs solar cells.
Detection of power transformer disk space variation and core deformation using frequency response analysis
- Authors: Hashemnia, Naser , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, CMD 2014; Jeju, Korea; 21st September 2014
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Frequency response analysis (FRA) has become a widely accepted tool to detect power transformer winding deformation due to the development of FRA test equipment. Because FRA relies on graphical analysis, interpretation of its signature is a very specialized area that calls for skilled personnel, as so far, there is no reliable standard code for FRA signature classification and quantification. Many researchers investigated the impact of various mechanical winding deformations on the transformer FRA signature by changing particular electrical parameters of the transformer equivalent electrical circuit. None of them however, investigated the impact of physical fault levels on the transformer FRA signature as it is very difficult to implement faults within real transformer without damaging it. In this paper, the physical geometrical dimension of a power transformer is simulated using 3D finite element analysis to emulate the real transformer operation. Physical core deformation and disk space variation are simulated and the impact of each fault on the transformer FRA signature is investigated.
DFIG-based WECS fault ride through complying with Australian grid codes
- Authors: Khamaira, Mahmoud , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIGs) are widely used in variable speed wind turbine owing to its superior advantages that include ability to extract more energy from turbine, capability to control active and reactive power independently and the use of reduced converter rating that reduces its overall cost. On the other side fluctuating output power, weak fault ride through capability and high sensitivity to grid disturbances are the main issues that affect DFIG performance. In this paper, superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) unit is proposed to improve the fault ride through (FRT) capability of DFIG-based wind energy conversion system (WECS) during voltage sag and voltage swell events in the grid side. A new control approach for SMES unit using hysteresis current controller (HCC) along with proportional integral (PI) controller is introduced. Australian grid codes are used to examine the capability of the proposed controller to improve the FRT of the DFIG and hence maintaining the wind turbine connection to the grid during studied faults. Simulations results show the effectiveness of the SMES controller in maintaining system parameters within safety margins that comply with the Australian grid codes.
Effects of transformer oil properties and contamination on its spectral response
- Authors: Abu Bakar, Norazhar , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Islam, Syed , El-Naggar, M.
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings
- Relation: 2014 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, CMD 2014; Jeju, Korea; 21st September 2014
- Full Text: false
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- Description: UV Spectrophotometry is a non-intrusive test that can be employed to determine power transformer’s integrity. Light transmitted through transformer oil sample containing various contaminations is decreased by that fraction being absorbed and is detected as a function of wavelength. This paper investigates the impact of various contaminations and oil properties such as water content, acidity, interfacial tension and average voltage breakdown on the spectral response of the transformer oil. In this regard, various transformer oil samples are collected from in-service transformers and the aforementioned parameters are measured. Same oil samples are scanned with UV-Vis spectroscopic and the spectral responses are obtained and analysed.
Fuzzy logic approach in power transformers management and decision making
- Authors: Arshad, Muhammad , Islam, Syed , Khaliq, Abdul
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 21, no. 5 (2014), p. 2343-2354
- Full Text: false
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- Description: The degradation of insulation systems is a complex physical process, many parameters act at the same time thus making the interpretation extremely difficult. The insulation is very much responsive in transformer serving closer to design life. Strategic maintenance and operational procedures are best formulated where the condition of existing unit has been accurately assessed. To facilitate asset management and decision making, asset's condition assessment is vital using reliable, non-intrusive diagnostics and monitoring tools together with expert system. Transformer assessment can be carried out effectively by identifying and integrating its criticalities using fuzzy logic technique. In this research, asset management and decision making model has been developed using diagnostics and data interpretation techniques based on fuzzy logic approach. Enhance reliability could be achieved by integrating real time condition monitoring, maintenance, management activities and cost effective optimization techniques. This model facilitates effectively to address criticalities and allow better planning, maintenance approach as well as to predict the remnant life of the asset within a practical accuracy.
Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray–Hotham catchment of Western Australia : A projection of rainfall–runoff for future water resources planning
- Authors: Islam, Syed , Bari, Mohammed , Anwar, Faisal
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 18, no. 9 (2014), p. 3591-3614
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- Description: Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has attracted attention to the climate change impact on water resources and water availability in this region. In this paper, the hydrologic impact of climate change on the Murray–Hotham catchment in SWWA has been investigated using a multi-model ensemble approach through projection of rainfall and runoff for the periods mid (2046–2065) and late (2081–2100) this century. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias-corrected rainfall data from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of the climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3%with respect to the observed past (1961–1980) and the resulting runoff reduction was found to be 14 %. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and the corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall areas compared to low rainfall areas.Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall events in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected, resulting in significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed by plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for the observed and projected periods. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, the considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.
Investigation on architectures for power system communications between substations using IEC 61850
- Authors: Das, Narottam , Modi, Hitesh , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-6
- Full Text: false
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- Description: This paper investigates the communication network architectures for power systems between substations using IEC 61850. Optimized Network Engineering Tools (OPNET) is used for the simulations. The simulation results show the performance of individual architectures power system communications (PSC) for substation automation systems (SASs). Nowadays, interoperability among multi-vendor substations automation devices is achievable using IEC 61850 standard which allows the PSC between substations. Ethernet based communication protocols for the SASs are specified in IEC 61850 standard. These standards include Ethernet based process-level connections between switchyards and control rooms. However, their in-service performance is not well known yet. The IEC 61850 demands for a communication topology which is zero point failure proof and provides worthy data transmission rates, without pursuing any delays. In order to achieve these norms, Ethernet architectures are modeled and analyzed in detail. The performance of individual architecture also analyzed in terms of their reliability, availability and efficiency of data transfer. The hybrid, star-ring and redundant ring network architectures are the most efficient in terms of data transmission, delay times, reliability and availability between the SASs for data transmission.
Modelling and analysis of multi-junction solar cells to improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic systems
- Authors: Das, Narottam , Al Ghadeer, Abdulmohsen , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
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- Description: This paper presents modelling and analysis of multi-junction solar cells to improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems. For this modelling, Matlab/Simulink tool is used to obtain the simulation results. The modelling of a single junction solar cell can be performed by single or double diode models. From the simulation results, it was found that the double diode model is more accurate than the single diode model. Hence, the double diode model is used to simulate dual and triple junction solar cells. The simulations were performed under varying the critical factors, such as temperature and solar irradiance. The effect of these factors was clearly demonstrated on the I-V and P-V characteristics of the solar cells. It was found that the temperature increases, short circuit current increases slightly and open circuit voltage drops significantly. Consequently, the PV power generation decreases considerably. However, when the irradiance increases, the short circuit current increases slightly and the open circuit voltage increases significantly. Consequently, the power generation increases considerably and the conversion efficiency increases of the PV systems.
Offline to online mechanical deformation diagnosis for power transformers
- Authors: Hashemnia, Naser , Masoum, Mohammad , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Internal winding deformations of power transformers can be detected using the conventional offline frequency response analysis (FRA) which is a well-known and widely accepted tool for the detection of winding and core deformations. In addition of being offline technique, interpretation of FRA signature is based on graphical analysis that requires skilled personnel as there is no reliable standard code for FRA signature identification and quantification. This paper presents the possibility of using an alternative online technique based on construction a voltage-current (ΔV-I) locus of the operating transformer and considering it as a reference signature. In order to fully explore the performance and reliability of the new proposed approach particularly for real-life distribution transformers, the paper investigates and compares the performance of the proposed and the FRA approaches for disk space variation and axial displacement faults. The transformer distributed parameter model is used to simulate FRA signatures while a detailed three-dimensional finite element model is used to generate the ΔV-I louses for healthy and faulty operating conditions. Simulation results are compared to highlight the advantages and limitations of the two internal fault detection strategies.
Online coordination of plug-in electric vehicle charging in smart grid with distributed wind power generation systems
- Authors: Masoum, Amir , Deilami, Sara , Masoum, Mohammad , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting; National Harbor, United States; 27th-31st July 2014 Vol. 2014, p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and wind distributed generations (WDGs) will represent key technologies in the future smart grid configurations. PEV charging at high penetration levels requires substantial grid energy that can be partially supplied by WDGs. This paper examines the impacts of WDGs on performance of recently implemented online maximum sensitivities selection based coordination algorithm (OL-MSSCA) for PEV charging. The algorithm considers random arrivals of vehicles and time-varying market energy price to reduce the total cost of energy generation for PEV charging and the associated grid losses while providing consumer priorities based on defined charging time zones. OL-MSSCA will be improved to also consider DGs while maintaining network operation criteria such as maximum generation limits and voltage profiles within their permissible limits. Detailed simulation is performed on the modified IEEE 23kV distribution system with three WDGs and 22 low voltage residential networks populated with PEVs. The main contributions of this paper are inclusion of WDGs in OL-MSSCA, as well as detailed investigations on the impacts of their peak generation times, penetrations and locations on the performance of smart grid populated with PEVs.
- Description: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Optimal scheduling with dynamic line ratings and intermittent wind power
- Authors: Banerjee, Binayak , Jayaweera, Dilan , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting; National Harbor, United States; 27th-31st July 2014 Vol. 2014, p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Limited transmission capacity may lead to wind curtailment during periods of high availability of wind. This paper presents an improved methodology to quantify the latent scheduling capacity of a power system taking into account stochastic variation in line-thermal rating, intermittency of wind, and mitigating the risk of network congestion associated with high penetration of wind. The approach is aimed at strategic planning of power systems in the context of power systems with short to medium length lines with a priori known unit commitment decisions and uses stochastic optimization with a two stage recourse action. Results suggest that a considerable level of wind penetration is possible with dynamic line ratings, without adversely affecting the risk of network congestion.
- Description: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Performance analysis of substation automation systems architecture based on IEC 61850
- Authors: Kumar, Shantanu , Das, Narottam , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-6
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Digital Communications amongst multi-vendor intelligent electronic devices (IED's) is an important feature of a substation automation system (SAS). Measuring the propagation delays and assessing the interoperability performance of IED's in an Ethernet architecture play a critical role in the protection of important substation assets. Early detection of the loss of data packets in a star connected Ethernet architecture is an important step towards identification of delay in message transfer issue. This identification of the problem could lead to reliable operation of protection system and better understanding of the issues of interoperability which may improve the protection system from safety and availability point of view. This paper focuses on a star connected architecture using Optimized Network Engineering Tool (OPNET) software for a 132/22kV zone substation. It shares a practical case for measuring delay time in exchanging Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) messages amongst the IED's.
Performance evaluation of data transmission in a single and double bus network within the utility substation based on IEC 61850
- Authors: Kumar, Shantanu , Das, Narottam , Muigai, John , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting; National Harbor, United States; 27th-31st July 2014 Vol. 2014, p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Communication between intelligent electronic devices (IED's) is an important feature of a utility substation automation system based on IEC 61850. Time critical information related to fault and overcurrent, under frequency messages for substation automation system (SAS) and the use of IED's from multiple vendors, has opened up issues related to a reliable protection system within the high voltage substation. Early detection of the delay in data transmission over a Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network is an important step towards identification of problems associated with the dynamic protection system. It is observed that non critical messages adds up the queuing time and delays in the delivery of the messages which could be an issue in the reliable operation of a protection system. In this paper an Optimized Network Engineering Tool (OPNET) model is created, tested and analysed for a single and double bus configuration in detail for the delay encountered in data transfer within a typical zone substation. In order to understand the delay in transmission of packets, a 132/22kV zone substation model is analysed and results are discussed based on GOOSE communication in an IEC 61850 environment. Further, the delay in communication is compared and analysed between a single and double bus system of a 132/22kV substation to determine the best alternative technique available from protection point of view in a SAS network.
Performance evaluation of on-line transformer winding short circuit fault detection based on instantaneous voltage and current measurements
- Authors: Masoum, Ali , Hashemnia, Seyednaser , Abu-Siada, Ahmed , Masoum, Mohammad , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting; National Harbor, United States; 27th-31st July 2014 Vol. 2014, p. 1-5
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: This paper investigates the performance of a recently proposed on-line transformer winding short circuit fault detection approach through detailed nonlinear three-dimensional finite element modelling of windings, magnetic core and transformer tank. The technique considers correlation of instantaneous input and output voltage difference Δ V=(v1(t)-v2(t)) and instantaneous input current I=i(t) at the power frequency as a fingerprint of the transformer. The on-line measured ΔV-I locus of healthy and faulty transformer are compared to detect the internal fault. A detailed three-dimensional finite element transformer models based on the physical dimensions, parameters and magnetic core characteristics are developed and used to emulate internal winding short circuit faults and calculate the corresponding transformer ΔV-I locus. Detailed simulations and some laboratory measurements are performed and analysed to investigate the impact of winding short circuit faults on the on-line transformer ΔV-I locus.
Power electronics for renewable energy sources
- Authors: Nayar, Chernmangot , Islam, Syed , Dehbonei, H. , Tan, Kevin , Sharma, Himanshu
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Book chapter
- Relation: Alternative Energy in Power Electronics Chapter 1 p. 1-79
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: This chapter focuses on solar photovoltaic and wind power. Stand-alone PV energy system requires storage to meet the energy demand during periods of low solar irradiation and nighttime. Blocking diodes in series with PV modules are used to prevent the batteries from being discharged through the PV cells at night when there is no sun available to generate energy. Two of the main factors that have been identified as limiting criteria for the cycle life of batteries in PV power systems are incomplete charging and prolonged operation at a low state of charge. The power output of the PV array is sampled at an every definite sampling period and compared with the previous value. Voltage source inverters are usually used in stand-alone applications. They can be single phase or three phase. There are three switching techniques commonly used: square wave, quasi-square wave, and pulse width modulation. Centrifugal pumps are used for low-head applications especially if they are directly interfaced with the solar panels. Centrifugal pumps are designed for fixed-head applications and the pressure difference generated increases in relation to the speed of pump.
Reactive power/voltage control for unbalanced distribution system using genetic algorithms
- Authors: Ulinuha, Agus , Masoum, Mohammad , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 24th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference, AUPEC 2014; Perth, Australia; 28th September-1st October 2014 p. 1-7
- Full Text: false
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- Description: The unbalanced conditions are taken into account in the Reactive Power/Voltage control of distribution system. The aim of the control is to simultaneously minimize energy loss and improve voltage profile. The control is carried out by optimal dispatch of load tap changers (LTC) and shunt capacitors considering unbalanced conditions. A genetic algorithm (GA) is developed to determine the load curve partition for effective LTC scheduling and switching constraint satisfaction. GA is also appointed to determine the optimal dispatch schedule of the devices and to check the fulfillment of switching constraints prior to performing calculations. For power flow analyses under unbalanced conditions, a forward/backward propagation algorithm is developed. The optimization is implemented on the IEEE 34-bus unbalanced distribution system, and the presented system improvements are highlighted. The main contribution is inclusion of unbalanced system conditions into the optimal dispatch problem considering different daily load curves for the three phases of distribution system.
Risk of supply insecurity with weather condition-based operation of plug in hybrid electric vehicles
- Authors: Jayaweera, Dilan , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution Vol. 8, no. 12 (2014), p. 2153-2162
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- Description: Plug in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can be a strategic source to mitigate risk of supply insecurity in an active distribution network. This study proposes a new methodology to quantify the risk of supply insecurity with weather condition based operation of PHEVs in an active distribution network. The approach divides operating characteristics of PHEVs into charging, discharging and null. Operation of PHEVs with change in weather conditions, intermittent characteristics of distributed generation, sector customer demand characteristics and random outages of components are modelled on Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation. A set of case studies are performed considering distributed operation of PHEVs as oppose to central operation of conventional units. Results suggest that distributed operation of PHEVs can potentially mitigate risk of supply insecurity of moderately stressed networks. Highly stressed networks, which are operated with PHEVs, need supplementary supports from conventional units to mitigate risk of supply insecurity.
Security assessment in active distribution networks with change in weather patterns
- Authors: Jayaweera, Dilan , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Conference proceedings , Conference paper
- Relation: 2014 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2014; Durham, United Kingdom; 7th-10th July 2014 p. 1-6
- Full Text: false
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- Description: Security of supply of an active distribution network is constrained with increased presence of intermittent distributed generation, component outages, network constraints, change in weather patterns, and resource availability. Long term predictions of weather patterns are challenging, however, potential vulnerability of networks into change in weather patterns can be modeled with uncertainties distributing along the time frame of study. This paper investigates this problem in detail and proposes an improved approach to model the change in weather patterns and to assess the security of supply in an active distribution network. The approach incorporates Monte Carlo simulation and captures weather patterns in three modes dynamically. A case study is performed on a 24 bus active distribution network model, and the results suggest that the security of supply can be significantly affected with change in weather patterns. Change in weather patterns by 50% of the nominal weather can result in impacts on security of supply up to three times the nominal impacts.
Security of energy supply with change in weather conditions and dynamic thermal limits
- Authors: Jayaweera, Dilan , Islam, Syed
- Date: 2014
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid Vol. 5, no. 5 (2014), p. 2246-2254
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Aging network assets, significant variations in weather conditions, increased accommodation of intermittent distributed generation, and the network operating patterns deviate actual thermal limits of assets from deterministic thermal limits. In that context, the paper proposes a model integrated innovative approach to assess the security of energy supply in an active distribution network. The approach integrates models of dynamic thermal limits, stochastic variations in weather conditions, random outages, intermittent generation outputs, and random load fluctuations into Monte Carlo simulation and quantifies the level of insecurity. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by a case study. The results suggest that costs of outages can be significantly affected by combinatorial effects of weather patterns and dynamic thermal limits. Changes in weather patterns contribute more to the costs of the outages than dynamic variations in thermal limits. Latent capacities of assets do not necessarily reduce insecurity of energy supply. The paper also argues that assets in stressed distribution networks should be modeled with dynamic thermal limits for the quantification of true impacts.