Western north pacific tropical cyclone tracks in cmip5 models : statistical assessment using a model-independent detection and tracking scheme
- Bell, Samuel, Chand, Savin, Camargo, Suzana, Tory, Kevin, Turville, Chris, Ye, Harvey
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Camargo, Suzana , Tory, Kevin , Turville, Chris , Ye, Harvey
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Climate Vol. 32, no. 21 (2019), p. 7191-7208
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Past studies have shown that tropical cyclone (TC) projection results can be sensitive to different types of TC tracking schemes, and that the relative adjustments of detection criteria to accommodate different models may not necessarily provide a consistent platform for comparison of projection results. Here, future climate projections of TC activity in the western North Pacific basin (WNP, defined from 0°-50°NAND 100°E-180°) are assessed with a model-independent detection and tracking scheme. This scheme is applied to models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. TC tracks from the observed records and independent models are analyzed simultaneously with a curve-clustering algorithm, allowing observed and model tracks to be projected onto the same set of clusters (k =9). Four of the nine clusters were projected to undergo significant changes in TC frequency. Straight-moving TCs in the South China Sea were projected to significantly decrease. Projected increases in TC frequency were found poleward of 20°N and east of 160°E, consistent with changes in ascending motion, as well as vertical wind shear and relative humidity respectively. Projections of TC track exposure indicated significant reductions for southern China and the Philippines and significant increases for the Korean peninsula and Japan, although very few model TCs reached the latter subtropical regions in comparison to the observations. The use of a fundamentally different detection methodology that overcomes the detector/tracker bias gives increased certainty to projections as best as lowresolution simulations can offer. © 2019 American Meteorological Society.
- Authors: Bell, Samuel , Chand, Savin , Camargo, Suzana , Tory, Kevin , Turville, Chris , Ye, Harvey
- Date: 2019
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Journal of Climate Vol. 32, no. 21 (2019), p. 7191-7208
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Past studies have shown that tropical cyclone (TC) projection results can be sensitive to different types of TC tracking schemes, and that the relative adjustments of detection criteria to accommodate different models may not necessarily provide a consistent platform for comparison of projection results. Here, future climate projections of TC activity in the western North Pacific basin (WNP, defined from 0°-50°NAND 100°E-180°) are assessed with a model-independent detection and tracking scheme. This scheme is applied to models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) forced under the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. TC tracks from the observed records and independent models are analyzed simultaneously with a curve-clustering algorithm, allowing observed and model tracks to be projected onto the same set of clusters (k =9). Four of the nine clusters were projected to undergo significant changes in TC frequency. Straight-moving TCs in the South China Sea were projected to significantly decrease. Projected increases in TC frequency were found poleward of 20°N and east of 160°E, consistent with changes in ascending motion, as well as vertical wind shear and relative humidity respectively. Projections of TC track exposure indicated significant reductions for southern China and the Philippines and significant increases for the Korean peninsula and Japan, although very few model TCs reached the latter subtropical regions in comparison to the observations. The use of a fundamentally different detection methodology that overcomes the detector/tracker bias gives increased certainty to projections as best as lowresolution simulations can offer. © 2019 American Meteorological Society.
Palaeoenvironmental change in tropical Australasia over the last 30,000 years - a synthesis by the OZ-INTIMATE group
- Reeves, Jessica, Bostock, Helen, Ayliffe, Linda, Barrows, Timothy, De Deckker, Patrick, Devriendt, Laurent, Dunbar, Gavin, Drysdale, Russell, Fitzsimmons, Kathryn, Gagan, Michael, Griffiths, Michael, Haberle, Simon, Jansen, John, Krause, Claire, Lewis, Stephen, McGregor, Helen, Mooney, Scott, Moss, Patrick, Nanson, Gerald, Purcell, Anthony, van der Kaars, Sander
- Authors: Reeves, Jessica , Bostock, Helen , Ayliffe, Linda , Barrows, Timothy , De Deckker, Patrick , Devriendt, Laurent , Dunbar, Gavin , Drysdale, Russell , Fitzsimmons, Kathryn , Gagan, Michael , Griffiths, Michael , Haberle, Simon , Jansen, John , Krause, Claire , Lewis, Stephen , McGregor, Helen , Mooney, Scott , Moss, Patrick , Nanson, Gerald , Purcell, Anthony , van der Kaars, Sander
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Quaternary Science Reviews Vol. 74, no. (2013), p. 97-114
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The tropics are the major source of heat and moisture for the Australasian region. Determining the tropics' response over time to changes in climate forcing mechanisms, such as summer insolation, and the effects of relative sea level on exposed continental shelves during the Last Glacial period, is an ongoing process of re-evaluation. We present a synthesis of climate proxy data from tropical Australasia spanning the last 30,000 years that incorporates deep sea core, coral, speleothem, pollen, charcoal and terrestrial sedimentary records.Today, seasonal variability is governed largely by the annual migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), influencing this region most strongly during the austral summer. However, the position of the ITCZ has varied through time. Towards the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, conditions were far wetter throughout the region, becoming drier first in the south. Universally cooler land and sea-surface temperature (SST) were characteristic of the Last Glacial Maximum, with drier conditions than previously, although episodic wet periods are noted in the fluvial records of northern Australia. The deglacial period saw warming first in the Coral Sea and then the Indonesian seas, with a pause in this trend around the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (c. 14.5ka), coincident with the flooding of the Sunda Shelf. Wetter conditions occurred first in Indonesia around 17ka and northern Australia after 14ka. The early Holocene saw a peak in marine SST to the northwest and northeast of Australia. Modern vegetation was first established on Indonesia, then progressively south and eastward to NE Australia. Flores and the Atherton Tablelands show a dry period around 11.6ka, steadily becoming wetter through the early Holocene. The mid-late Holocene was punctuated by millennial-scale variability, associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; this is evident in the marine, coral, speleothem and pollen records of the region. © 2012.
- Description: 4 Earth Sciences
- Description: 21 History And Archaelogy
- Description: 2003011213
- Authors: Reeves, Jessica , Bostock, Helen , Ayliffe, Linda , Barrows, Timothy , De Deckker, Patrick , Devriendt, Laurent , Dunbar, Gavin , Drysdale, Russell , Fitzsimmons, Kathryn , Gagan, Michael , Griffiths, Michael , Haberle, Simon , Jansen, John , Krause, Claire , Lewis, Stephen , McGregor, Helen , Mooney, Scott , Moss, Patrick , Nanson, Gerald , Purcell, Anthony , van der Kaars, Sander
- Date: 2013
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Quaternary Science Reviews Vol. 74, no. (2013), p. 97-114
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: The tropics are the major source of heat and moisture for the Australasian region. Determining the tropics' response over time to changes in climate forcing mechanisms, such as summer insolation, and the effects of relative sea level on exposed continental shelves during the Last Glacial period, is an ongoing process of re-evaluation. We present a synthesis of climate proxy data from tropical Australasia spanning the last 30,000 years that incorporates deep sea core, coral, speleothem, pollen, charcoal and terrestrial sedimentary records.Today, seasonal variability is governed largely by the annual migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), influencing this region most strongly during the austral summer. However, the position of the ITCZ has varied through time. Towards the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, conditions were far wetter throughout the region, becoming drier first in the south. Universally cooler land and sea-surface temperature (SST) were characteristic of the Last Glacial Maximum, with drier conditions than previously, although episodic wet periods are noted in the fluvial records of northern Australia. The deglacial period saw warming first in the Coral Sea and then the Indonesian seas, with a pause in this trend around the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (c. 14.5ka), coincident with the flooding of the Sunda Shelf. Wetter conditions occurred first in Indonesia around 17ka and northern Australia after 14ka. The early Holocene saw a peak in marine SST to the northwest and northeast of Australia. Modern vegetation was first established on Indonesia, then progressively south and eastward to NE Australia. Flores and the Atherton Tablelands show a dry period around 11.6ka, steadily becoming wetter through the early Holocene. The mid-late Holocene was punctuated by millennial-scale variability, associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; this is evident in the marine, coral, speleothem and pollen records of the region. © 2012.
- Description: 4 Earth Sciences
- Description: 21 History And Archaelogy
- Description: 2003011213
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