- Title
- Progress toward HIV elimination goals : trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use in Africa
- Creator
- Nguyen, Phuong; Gilmour, Stuart; Le, Phuong; Onishi, Kazunari; Kato, Kosuke; Nguyen, Huy
- Date
- 2021
- Type
- Text; Journal article
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/193963
- Identifier
- vital:18276
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000002870
- Identifier
- ISSN:0269-9370 (ISSN)
- Abstract
- Objectives: To estimate trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex and to calculate the probability of reaching key United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS)'s target. Design: We included 114 nationally-representative datasets in 38 African countries from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys with 1 456 224 sexually active adults age 15-49 from 2003 to 2018. Methods: We applied Bayesian mixed effect models to estimate the coverage of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex for every country and year to 2030 and the probability of reaching UNAIDS testing and condom use targets of 95% coverage by 2030. Results: Seven countries saw downward trends in annual HIV testing and four saw decreases in condom use at higher-risk sex, whereas most countries have upward trends in both indicators. The highest coverage of testing in 2030 is predicted in Swaziland with 92.6% (95% credible interval: 74.5-98.1%), Uganda with 90.5% (72.2-97.2%), and Lesotho with 90.5% (69.4%-97.6%). Meanwhile, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Namibia will have the highest proportion of condom use in 2030 at 85.0% (57.8-96.1%), 75.6% (42.3-93.6%), and 75.5% (42.4-93.2%). The probabilities of reaching targets were very low for both HIV testing (0-28.5%) and condom use (0-12.1%). Conclusions: We observed limited progress on annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex in Africa and little prospect of reaching global targets for HIV/AIDS elimination. Although some funding agencies are considering withdrawal from supporting Africa, more attention to funding and expanding testing and treatment is needed in this region. © 2021 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.
- Publisher
- Lippincott Williams and Wilkins
- Relation
- AIDS Vol. 35, no. 8 (2021), p. 1253-1262
- Rights
- All metadata describing materials held in, or linked to, the repository is freely available under a CC0 licence
- Rights
- Copyright © 2021 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins
- Rights
- Open Access
- Subject
- 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences; 42 Health sciences; 90-90-90; Africa; Bayesian statistics; targets; TasP; treatment as prevention; UNAIDS
- Full Text
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