Animal population decline and recovery after severe fire: Relating ecological and life history traits with expert estimates of population impacts from the Australian 2019-20 megafires
- Ensbey, Michelle, Legge, Sarah, Jolly, Chris, Garnett, Stephen, Gallagher, Rachael, Lintermans, Mark, Nimmo, Dale, Rumpff, Libby, Scheele, Ben, Whiterod, Nick, Woinarski, John, Ahyong, Shane, Blackmore, Caroline, Bower, Deborah, Burbidge, Allan, Burns, Phoebe, Butler, Gavin, Catullo, Renee, Chapple, David, Dickman, Christopher, Doyle, Katie, Ferris, Jason, Fisher, Diana, Geyle, Hayley, Gillespie, Graeme, Greenlees, Matt, Hohnen, Rosemary, Hoskin, Conrad, Kennard, Mark, King, Alison, Kuchinke, Diana, Law, Brad, Lawler, Ivan, Lawler, Susan, Loyn, Richard, Lunney, Daniel, Lyon, Jarod, MacHunter, Josephine, Mahony, Michael, Mahony, Stephen, McCormack, Rob, Melville, Jane, Menkhorst, Peter, Michael, Damian, Mitchell, Nicola, Mulder, Eridani, Newell, David, Pearce, Luke, Raadik, Tarmo, Rowley, Jodi, Sitters, Holly, Southwell, Darren, Spencer, Ricky, West, Matt, Zukowski, Sylvia
- Authors: Ensbey, Michelle , Legge, Sarah , Jolly, Chris , Garnett, Stephen , Gallagher, Rachael , Lintermans, Mark , Nimmo, Dale , Rumpff, Libby , Scheele, Ben , Whiterod, Nick , Woinarski, John , Ahyong, Shane , Blackmore, Caroline , Bower, Deborah , Burbidge, Allan , Burns, Phoebe , Butler, Gavin , Catullo, Renee , Chapple, David , Dickman, Christopher , Doyle, Katie , Ferris, Jason , Fisher, Diana , Geyle, Hayley , Gillespie, Graeme , Greenlees, Matt , Hohnen, Rosemary , Hoskin, Conrad , Kennard, Mark , King, Alison , Kuchinke, Diana , Law, Brad , Lawler, Ivan , Lawler, Susan , Loyn, Richard , Lunney, Daniel , Lyon, Jarod , MacHunter, Josephine , Mahony, Michael , Mahony, Stephen , McCormack, Rob , Melville, Jane , Menkhorst, Peter , Michael, Damian , Mitchell, Nicola , Mulder, Eridani , Newell, David , Pearce, Luke , Raadik, Tarmo , Rowley, Jodi , Sitters, Holly , Southwell, Darren , Spencer, Ricky , West, Matt , Zukowski, Sylvia
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Biological conservation Vol. 283, no. (2023), p. 110021
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Catastrophic megafires can increase extinction risks identifying species priorities for management and policy support is critical for preparing and responding to future fires. However, empirical data on population loss and recovery post-fire, especially megafire, are limited and taxonomically biased. These gaps could be bridged if species' morphological, behavioural, ecological and life history traits indicated their fire responses. Using expert elicitation that estimated population changes following the 2019–20 Australian megafires for 142 terrestrial and aquatic animal species (from every vertebrate class, one invertebrate group), we examined whether expert estimates of fire-related mortality, mortality in the year post-fire, and recovery trajectories over 10 years/three generations post-fire, were related to species traits. Expert estimates for fire-related mortality were lower for species that could potentially flee or shelter from fire, and that associated with fire-prone habitats. Post-fire mortality estimates were linked to diet, diet specialisation, home range size, and susceptibility to introduced herbivores that damage or compete for resources. Longer-term population recovery estimates were linked to diet/habitat specialisation, susceptibility to introduced species species with slower life histories and shorter subadult dispersal distances also had lower recovery estimates. Across animal groups, experts estimated that recovery was poorest for species with pre-fire population decline and more threatened conservation status. Sustained management is likely needed to recover species with habitat and diet specialisations, slower life histories, pre-existing declines and threatened conservation statuses. This study shows that traits could help inform management priorities before and after future megafires, but further empirical data on animal fire response is essential.
- Authors: Ensbey, Michelle , Legge, Sarah , Jolly, Chris , Garnett, Stephen , Gallagher, Rachael , Lintermans, Mark , Nimmo, Dale , Rumpff, Libby , Scheele, Ben , Whiterod, Nick , Woinarski, John , Ahyong, Shane , Blackmore, Caroline , Bower, Deborah , Burbidge, Allan , Burns, Phoebe , Butler, Gavin , Catullo, Renee , Chapple, David , Dickman, Christopher , Doyle, Katie , Ferris, Jason , Fisher, Diana , Geyle, Hayley , Gillespie, Graeme , Greenlees, Matt , Hohnen, Rosemary , Hoskin, Conrad , Kennard, Mark , King, Alison , Kuchinke, Diana , Law, Brad , Lawler, Ivan , Lawler, Susan , Loyn, Richard , Lunney, Daniel , Lyon, Jarod , MacHunter, Josephine , Mahony, Michael , Mahony, Stephen , McCormack, Rob , Melville, Jane , Menkhorst, Peter , Michael, Damian , Mitchell, Nicola , Mulder, Eridani , Newell, David , Pearce, Luke , Raadik, Tarmo , Rowley, Jodi , Sitters, Holly , Southwell, Darren , Spencer, Ricky , West, Matt , Zukowski, Sylvia
- Date: 2023
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Biological conservation Vol. 283, no. (2023), p. 110021
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Catastrophic megafires can increase extinction risks identifying species priorities for management and policy support is critical for preparing and responding to future fires. However, empirical data on population loss and recovery post-fire, especially megafire, are limited and taxonomically biased. These gaps could be bridged if species' morphological, behavioural, ecological and life history traits indicated their fire responses. Using expert elicitation that estimated population changes following the 2019–20 Australian megafires for 142 terrestrial and aquatic animal species (from every vertebrate class, one invertebrate group), we examined whether expert estimates of fire-related mortality, mortality in the year post-fire, and recovery trajectories over 10 years/three generations post-fire, were related to species traits. Expert estimates for fire-related mortality were lower for species that could potentially flee or shelter from fire, and that associated with fire-prone habitats. Post-fire mortality estimates were linked to diet, diet specialisation, home range size, and susceptibility to introduced herbivores that damage or compete for resources. Longer-term population recovery estimates were linked to diet/habitat specialisation, susceptibility to introduced species species with slower life histories and shorter subadult dispersal distances also had lower recovery estimates. Across animal groups, experts estimated that recovery was poorest for species with pre-fire population decline and more threatened conservation status. Sustained management is likely needed to recover species with habitat and diet specialisations, slower life histories, pre-existing declines and threatened conservation statuses. This study shows that traits could help inform management priorities before and after future megafires, but further empirical data on animal fire response is essential.
The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance : time-bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires
- Legge, Sarah, Rumpff, Libby, Woinarski, John, Whiterod, Nick, Ward, Michelle, Southwell, Darren, Scheele, Ben, Nimmo, Dale, Lintermans, Mark, Geyle, Hayley, Garnett, Stephen, Hayward-Brown, Brittany, Ensbey, Miki, Ehmke, Glenn, Ahyong, Shane, Blackmore, Caroline, Bower, Deborah, Brizuela-Torres, Diego, Burbidge, Allan, Burns, Phoebe, Butler, Gavin, Catullo, Renee, Chapple, David, Dickman, Christopher, Doyle, Katherine, Ferris, Jason, Fisher, Diana, Gallagher, Rachael, Gillespie, Graeme, Kuchinke, Diana
- Authors: Legge, Sarah , Rumpff, Libby , Woinarski, John , Whiterod, Nick , Ward, Michelle , Southwell, Darren , Scheele, Ben , Nimmo, Dale , Lintermans, Mark , Geyle, Hayley , Garnett, Stephen , Hayward-Brown, Brittany , Ensbey, Miki , Ehmke, Glenn , Ahyong, Shane , Blackmore, Caroline , Bower, Deborah , Brizuela-Torres, Diego , Burbidge, Allan , Burns, Phoebe , Butler, Gavin , Catullo, Renee , Chapple, David , Dickman, Christopher , Doyle, Katherine , Ferris, Jason , Fisher, Diana , Gallagher, Rachael , Gillespie, Graeme , Kuchinke, Diana
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Global Ecology and Biogeography Vol. 31, no. 10 (2022), p. 2085-2104
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Aim: After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need urgent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated population losses and recovery in fire-affected fauna, to inform conservation status assessments and management. Location: Temperate and subtropical Australia. Time period: 2019–2030 and beyond. Major taxa: Australian terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group. Methods: From > 1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation. Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so-listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not recover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical. © 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Diana Kuchinke” is provided in this record**
- Authors: Legge, Sarah , Rumpff, Libby , Woinarski, John , Whiterod, Nick , Ward, Michelle , Southwell, Darren , Scheele, Ben , Nimmo, Dale , Lintermans, Mark , Geyle, Hayley , Garnett, Stephen , Hayward-Brown, Brittany , Ensbey, Miki , Ehmke, Glenn , Ahyong, Shane , Blackmore, Caroline , Bower, Deborah , Brizuela-Torres, Diego , Burbidge, Allan , Burns, Phoebe , Butler, Gavin , Catullo, Renee , Chapple, David , Dickman, Christopher , Doyle, Katherine , Ferris, Jason , Fisher, Diana , Gallagher, Rachael , Gillespie, Graeme , Kuchinke, Diana
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Global Ecology and Biogeography Vol. 31, no. 10 (2022), p. 2085-2104
- Full Text:
- Reviewed:
- Description: Aim: After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need urgent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated population losses and recovery in fire-affected fauna, to inform conservation status assessments and management. Location: Temperate and subtropical Australia. Time period: 2019–2030 and beyond. Major taxa: Australian terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group. Methods: From > 1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation. Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so-listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not recover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical. © 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Diana Kuchinke” is provided in this record**
- Cairncross, Rhys, Barton, Philip, Bonat, Stefanie, Crowther, Matthew, Dickman, Christopher, Vandersteen, James, Newsome, Thomas
- Authors: Cairncross, Rhys , Barton, Philip , Bonat, Stefanie , Crowther, Matthew , Dickman, Christopher , Vandersteen, James , Newsome, Thomas
- Date: 2022
- Type: Text , Journal article
- Relation: Food Webs Vol. 31, no. (2022), p.
- Full Text: false
- Reviewed:
- Description: Carrion is a vital resource in terrestrial ecosystems, supporting complex networks of interacting consumer organisms. The insect community attending carrion forms a vital part of this food web, but the functional roles of insects as scavengers can be altered by invasive species via the effects of predation and competition. European wasps (Vespula germanica) have invaded many parts of Australia and have been documented to directly kill native insect scavengers, especially necrophilous flies. Yet, little is known about the factors that influence predation rates by European wasps on flies at carcasses. The aim of this study was to determine how carcass state and altitude influences the occurrence and predatory impacts of wasps on flies. We placed 18 kangaroo carcasses along an altitudinal gradient in an Australian alpine ecosystem and manipulated half of the carcasses by splitting them open to simulate the wounds created by vertebrate scavengers present at the time of death. We found that carcasses with open wounds exacerbated already severe predation on flies from wasps, as well as intense scavenging activity, even though wasp abundance remained the same across both treatments. Meanwhile, densities of wasps declined and their impact on flies lessened with higher altitude. We suggest that the suppressive effect of wasps on flies may interrupt key processes triggered by carrion and cause shifts in energy flow through scavenger food webs. Further, under climate change, we predict that wasps will continue to spread into new areas at altitudes the species currently find unhospitable and conclude that carcass management practices must recognise the potential threat that wasps pose to ecosystem stability. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.
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