- Title
- Short term comparison of climate model predictions and satellite altimeter measurements of sea levels
- Creator
- Boretti, Alberto
- Date
- 2011
- Type
- Text; Journal article
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/38461
- Identifier
- vital:4281
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.10.005
- Identifier
- ISSN:0378-3839
- Abstract
- Climate models (http://climatecommission.govspace.gov.au/files/2011/05/4108-CC-Science-Update-PRINT-CHANGES.pdf, 2011; http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm, 2011; Rahmstorf, 2007, 2010) calculate that temperatures are increasing globally and sea level rises are increasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. More recent predictions (http://climatecommission.govspace.gov.au/files/2011/05/4108-CC-Science-Update-PRINT-CHANGES.pdf, 2011; Rahmstorf, 2007, 2010) have forecasted that sea level rises by 2100 will be higher than the 2007 projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm, 2011), with projected sea level rises increasing from 18-59 cm to 100 cm. In this brief communication, the predictions of Rahmstorf (2007) are validated against the experimental evidence over a 20 year period. The University of Colorado Sea Level satellite monitoring shows that the rate of rise of the sea level is not only well below the values computed in http://climatecommission.govspace.gov.au/files/2011/05/4108-CC-Science-Update-PRINT-CHANGES.pdf (2011) and Rahmstorf (2007, 2010), but actually reducing rather than increasing (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/, 2011b; 10,11). These results suggest that sea level predictions based solely on the presumed temperature evolution may fail to accurately predict the long term sea levels at the end of the century. © 2011.
- Relation
- Coastal Engineering Vol.60, no. (2011), p.319-322
- Rights
- Copyright Elsevier B.V.
- Rights
- This metadata is freely available under a CCO license
- Subject
- Climate models; Curve fitting; Satellite altimeter measurements; Sea level rise; Statistical analysis
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