- Title
- Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific
- Creator
- Tu’uholoaki, Moleni; Espejo, Antonio; Sharma, Krishneel; Singh, Awnesh; Wandres, Moritz; Damlamian, Herve; Chand, Savin
- Date
- 2023
- Type
- Text; Journal article
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/196546
- Identifier
- vital:18738
- Identifier
-
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071189
- Identifier
- ISSN:2073-4433 (ISSN)
- Abstract
- The modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO, using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) and the MJO index. In particular, this study investigates how the MJO modulates the frequency and intensity of TCs affecting the Tonga region relative to the entire study period (1970–2019; hereafter referred to as all years), as well as to different phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Results suggest that the MJO strongly modulates TC activity affecting the Tonga region. The frequency and intensity of TCs is enhanced during the active phases (phases six to eight) in all years, including El Niño and ENSO-neutral years. The MJO also strongly influences the climatological pattern of genesis of TCs affecting the Tonga region, where more (fewer) cyclones form in the active (inactive) phases of the MJO and more genesis points are clustered (scattered) near (away from) the Tonga region. There were three regression curves that best described the movement of TCs in the region matching the dominant steering mechanisms in the Southwest Pacific region. The findings of this study can provide climatological information for the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) and disaster managers to better understand the TC risk associated with the impact of the MJO on TCs affecting the Tonga region and support its TC early warning system. © 2023 by the authors.
- Publisher
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
- Relation
- Atmosphere Vol. 14, no. 7 (2023), p.
- Rights
- All metadata describing materials held in, or linked to, the repository is freely available under a CC0 licence
- Rights
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Rights
- Copyright © 2023 by the authors
- Rights
- Open Access
- Subject
- 3701 Atmospheric sciences; 3702 Climate change science; ENSO; Island scale; Madden–Julian oscillations; Southwest Pacific; Tonga; Tropical cyclones
- Full Text
- Reviewed
- Funder
- The first author was supported by the Pacific Scholarship for Excellence in Research and Innovation (PSERI) from The University of the South Pacific, Fiji.
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