- Title
- Tropical cyclone prediction for the Solomon Islands region
- Creator
- Haruhiru, Alick
- Date
- 2023
- Type
- Text; Thesis; PhD
- Identifier
- http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/196534
- Identifier
- vital:18722
- Abstract
- Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the costliest natural disasters impacting the Solomon Islands in the southwest Pacific due to its high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity to the hazard. Strong winds coupled with heavy rainfall often have devastating consequences on life and property. Occurrence of TCs in the Solomon Islands region – defined here as 5°–15°S and 155°–170°E – have large year-to-year variability over the period 1970-2019, ranging from TC numbers as low as zero to up to eight in some years. Geographically, the region spans the spatial phase change of the major climatic driver in the South Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and so the year-to-year variability of TCs here do not have any defined pattern. This creates a ‘predictability barrier’ for seasonal (and even sub-seasonal) prediction of TCs in the region. To circumvent the issue of TC predictability in the Solomon Islands region, I first objectively defined the total observed TCs into three specific clusters. Cluster-specific TCs showed improved patterns of variability with respect to natural modes of climate variability such as ENSO, the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). I then developed sophisticated statistical prediction models for TCs in each cluster at seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales using ENSO, the MJO and IPO as main predictors. Overall, the results showed enhanced predictability skills of TCs up to several months in advance compared with methods that are currently being used by the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service. It is anticipated that improved seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of TCs at various timescales can help disaster management agencies in the Solomon Islands with appropriate plannings and decision-making to lessen risks associated with TC events.; Doctor of Philosophy
- Publisher
- Federation University Australia
- Rights
- All metadata describing materials held in, or linked to, the repository is freely available under a CC0 licence
- Rights
- Copyright Alick Haruhiru
- Rights
- Open Access
- Subject
- Tropical cyclones; Seasonal prediction; Sub-seasonal prediction; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Madden Julian Oscillation; Solomon Islands
- Full Text
- Thesis Supervisor
- Chand, Savin
- Hits: 1288
- Visitors: 632
- Downloads: 31
| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE2 | Australian Digital Thesis | 8 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |